This Obon will be pretty interesting, I think it will likely easily outperform 3DS's best Obon where Nintendo dropped the price of the 3DS.
Expecting around 250-300K based on the data provided by Chris relating to different lotteries, what we've seen on Amazon.co.jp and other retailers. It would be very difficult in the current situation to envision Nintendo has enough Switch stock to provide more than 300K units but if they do, we might even see the Switch outperform the DS Peak years.
- 2006 DS - 329K
- 2007 DS - 318K
- 2011 3DS - 218K
- 2012 3DS - 216K
The big winner will be Animal Crossing: New Horizon which will probably maintain around 70% attach rate. So around 175-210K sales for those two weeks. Ring Fit Adventure would be the other game that will see a big boost, it will probably get very close to those Animal Crossing numbers if there is enough stock. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, Clubhouse, Paper Mario and Splatoon 2 are likely to the other top performers from a 1st Party Perspective.
From a third party perspective eBaseball is looking like it will be the highest-selling 3rd Party game, and should be very close to 200K on the Switch after the numbers come out. Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles might get close or even outperform eBaseball but depends on how many copies retailers ordered(let's see if Square again has stock problems for the Switch version). It will be followed by the evergreens Minecraft, Fishing Spirits and Taiko.
