And in just 3 and a half months too. Insane. What are the rest of the top ten?

Thanks!

If this is accurate, AC:NH has a good shot at becoming the best selling video game of all time in Japan.

Pokemon Red/Blue/Green, Super Mario Bros, New Super Mario Bros, Pokemon Gold/Silver, Pokemon Diamond/Pearl, Pokemon Black/White, Pokemon Ruby/Sapphire and Animal Crossing: Wild World are the rest of the games in the top 10.
If we combine Pokemon Red/Blue/Green with Pokemon Yellow that would bring the top-selling game of all time with over 12M. I think that New Horizon might actually top this lifetime. Since I don't think sales will fall off a cliff after 2020 but we might need to combine shipped+digital to get to this type of unprecedented amount. The main thing New Horizon has going for it compared to past games is future DLC and Expansions which should help it chug along the next few years. I don't think the game will have much difficulty to sell 1M units in 2021, taking it to 9-10M physical by the end of next year. Shipp+digital it could hit 12M sometime in 2022-2023. 

So yeah no matter what you view as the top-selling game of Japan of all time eventually New Horizon will get there. Switch is actually proving that by combining their software output Nintendo is able to make a high priced device sell on par with handhelds. It's not yet at DS levels but at some point, the Switch will become accessible in terms of pricing, so it's actually easily going to surpass 3DS lifetime sales. People tend to forget that initially, 3DS wasn't selling so well, but thanks to price cuts and a string of titles it was able to achieve 24.5M sales. Switch is still retailing at its launch price, and although Nintendo released the Lite last year to provide an alternative to price-sensitive consumers, their goal of multiple Switches per house-hold will be achieved when the price of both the Lite and OG are lowered. Currently, they are selling what they can ship, but if manufacturing is scaling up they could easily afford to cut the price permanently, right now there is no doubt that Nintendo is making more profit with each Switch sold compared to it's launch as manufacturing & supply chain costs are lowered over time, as the channels expand.  

For FY 2020, with the current demand, I think they will easily sell-through >25M units World Wide and if they maintain 25% of supply to Japan, that's >6.25M for the fiscal year. Now if you factor a potential price cut in the fall, the potential is even larger, we are talking >30M units with >7.5M coming from Japan. Will they do it? Depends on whether they are finally able to manufacture at such scale and how much they want to take the focus off the newest Sony/Microsoft consoles and most of all what games they & 3rd party publishers have planned for the rest of their fiscal year. 

TOP 10 2020 Switch Famitsu Q1:

1. Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 2.608.417
2. Pokemon Sword / Shield - 554.390
3. Ring Fit Adventure - 249.488
4. Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Rescue Team DX - 218.394
5. Minecraft - 185.900
6. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 181.921
7. Smash Ultimate - 170.222
8. Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training for Nintendo Switch - 151.351
9. Super Mario Party - 118.077
10. Luigi's Mansion 3 - 117.482

TOTAL: 4.555.642

TOTAL HARDWARE: 1.700.352

TOP 10 2020 Switch Famitsu Q2:

1. Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 2.396.303(-8.1%)
2. Ring Fit Adventure - 328.387(+31.6%)
3. Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 171.620(new)
4. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 164.113(-9.7%)
5. Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition - 123.920(new)
6. Smash Ultimate - 114.495(-32.7%)
7. Splatoon 2 - 114.226(+10.2%)
8. Trials of Mana - 100.451(new)
9. Minecraft - 94.762(-49%)
10. Super Mario Party - 85.551(-27.5%)

TOTAL: 3.693.828(-18.9%)

TOTAL HARDWARE: 966.530(-43.1%)

• Down >50%: Pokemon Sword/Shield, Brain Training, Pokemon Mystery Dungeon, Luigis Mansion 3
• Down >40%: Hardware, Minecraft
• Down >30%: Smash Ultimate
• Down >20%: Super Mario Party
• Down >10%: Software
• Down >5%: Animal Crossing: New Horizon, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
• Up >10%: Splatoon 2
• Up >30%: Ring Fit Adventure

Very interesting performance in Q2, we have seen the rise of Ring Fit Adventure & to a lesser degree Splatoon 2.

Software is only slightly down compared to the huge difference in Hardware sold, Minecraft drop correlates exactly with Hardware drop. Software, New Horizon and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe had very soft drops this quarter. Overall we can see the distribution of where new owners are flocking to, Pokemon Sword/Shield is the worst performing evergreen and it remains to be seen how the DLC effects the game legs in Q3, still it was outperformed by Super Mario Party which I found surprising. 

We also had three new games this quarter that made the top 10, I expect Clubhouse Games to be the best performing one for next quarter as both Trials of Mana and Xenoblade won't have the same type of legs. 

Prediction for Q3 Sales:

1. Animal Crossing: New Horizon >900K
2. Ring Fit Adventure >450K
3. Paper Mario: The Origami King >400K(new)
4. Captain Tsubasa >350K(new)
5. eBaseball Powerful Pro Yakyuu 2020 >300K(new)
6. Clubhouse Games: 51 >200K
7. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe >175K
8. Splatoon, Smash Ultimate, Pokemon Sword/Shield >125K

TOTAL >3.15M

HARDWARE TOTAL >1.25M

This is not taking into account unannounced games, I expect a lot of 3rd party games to release before the end of the Quarter that hasn't been revealed yet. Also, there is a decent chance Nintendo releases something in August/September that could shake things up. 

Ring Fit, New Horizon & Hardware predictions are optimistic in terms of Nintendo being able to produce enough to both raise the baseline by over 25% for the rest of the quarter and provide enough copies of Ring Fit. New Horizons will sell at least 80% of the hardware total in the coming quarter. 

I expect big launches for Paper Mario, Captain Tsubasa and eBaseball, all games have a great chance to pass 500K this year. I expect the rest of the evergreens to be flat unless some kinda DLC or promotion is made during the holiday weeks around Obon. 

Clubhouse Games will be the only game with the biggest growth from Q2 to Q3, its another +500K title. 

Pokemon Sword/Shield is the only one I'm really uncertain on... although DLC have helped it's nothing pronounced so it remains to be seen if it starts to perform on par with the likes of Splatoon 2 and Smash, let alone Mario Kart 8 Deluxe. 

I think ACNH will be the best selling title of Japan

And it will make 10 million

10 mil is 2 mil more than the current best so that would be a huge undertaking. I do believe it will maybe eventually reach 9 mil but 10 mil is too much

If AC can cross 5 million in Japan in just three and half months, I'm sure it can reach 10 million lifetime. Switch probably has a good three years left in it, and AC will be an evergreen seller probably even after Switch is replaced.

I think you are vastly underestimating AC here. Remember, that current 5 million number is only on physical copies sold, so it is likely already at 7 million. Which means by end of this year alone it could be close to 9 million. 10 million should be passed next year. Lifetime 12 million is certainly possible.

2017 

1. Splatoon 2 - 1.752.096
2. Super Mario Odyssey - 1.324.280 
3. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 1.103.744
4. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 771.050

Hardware: 2.719.132

Splatoon 2 attach rate was 64%, Super Mario Odyssey at 48.7%, while Mario Kart 8 Deluxe at 40.5%


2018 

1. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 2.360.655 
2. Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu! / Let's Go, Eevee! - 1.253.677
3. Splatoon 2 - 1.122.324
4. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 926.553
5. Super Mario Party - 764.853
6. Super Mario Odyssey - 575.926
7. Minecraft - 525.045
8. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 491.648

Hardware: 3.482.388

Smash 67% attach rate for 2018, Pokemon at 36%, Splatoon 2 at 32%, MK8D at 26%, SMP at about 22%, SMO starting to fall off already at 16% and Minecraft debuted at 15%. 

2019 Evergreens

1. Pokemon Sword / Shield - 2.988.134
2. Smash Ultimate - 1.092.397
3. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 628.712
4. Minecraft - 620.903
5. Super Mario Party - 498.857
6. Ring Fit Adventure - 495.639
7. Splatoon 2 - 378.340
8. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 301.657

Hardware: 4.493.885

Pokemon debuted at 66% attach rate for 2019, while Smash 2nd year achieved 24% attach rate, MK8D & Minecraft lead the other evergreens with nearly 14% attach rate, Minecraft, SMP follows with 11%. Interestingly Splatoon 2 really fell off in 2019 compared to MK8D and Minecraft it had just 8% attach rate for the year. 

2020 Evergreens

1. Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 5.058.226
2. Pokemon Sword / Shield - 658.970
3. Ring Fit Adventure - 597.160
4. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 356.071
5. Smash Ultimate - 291.828
6. Minecraft - 286.766
7. Splatoon 2 - 225.989
8. Super Mario Party - 217.418
9. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 125.314

Hardware: 2.719.132

Animal Crossing is off the charts in terms of annual attach rate for the year. 

Interestingly Pokemon is performing well due to the DLCs with a 24% current attach rate for the year. Pokemon as a whole due to its pricing model has never been known as an evergreen, usually, it's legs get cut off by a subsequent 3rd version which won't happen for Sword and Shield. For example, Pokemon Lets Go sold less than Zelda Breath of the Wild in its the second year. 

Ring Fit Adventure follows with 21% attach rate, this is something to track closely because it's basically talking about the potential of Ring Fit Adventure. For example, if Nintendo sells 3.3M more Switches this year at an attach rate of 20%, we can expect around 660K sales bringing total sales of the game to over 1M for 2020, so Ring Fit Adventure has a fantastic chance to finish in the top 3 best selling games on the Nintendo ecosystem for the year. If Nintendo sell 4.3M more that is 860K making it a real possibility for the game to sell over 2M before the end of the year without even waiting for shipped numbers from Nintendo themselves. 

Other interesting things to notice is that MK8D is at 13%, Smash Ultimate & Minecraft at 10%, Splatoon 2 and SMP are at 8% attach rate. The main thing Nintendo needs to do for some of these games to continue to sell at around this pace is to continue to provide some type of updates to them. For example, even a single Splatfest and Demo for Splatoon 2 has helped it see some improvement YoY. The reason Smash continues to get traction is the DLC and promotion.

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe maintaining such rock steady attach rate on the system, just show what a brilliant move it was to choose this game as one of the launch games on the system.

I'm also always amazed how much Zelda continues to sell even without DLC, they should think about more and longer post-launch content for the Breath of the Wild 2... Honestly to me, it's exciting to think about Breath of the Wild 2 since this will be a game that will launch with over 1 million sales in Japan, something not many thought possible prior to Breath of the Wild's launch. At this point, I'm not only expecting Breath of the Wild 2 to be a bigger hit than the debut regardless of how it's critically acclaimed, hope it comes out this fiscal year since I lost my physical copy of the original and haven't been able to play it in over a year. Also if Nintendo can use the engine for a multi-player game in the Zelda universe that would be amazing. Hyrule Battle of the Wild, battle royal lol.

Now finally what to expect from Animal Crossing next year? I'd say it will have over 40% attach rate in 2021. Based on how Splatoon 2 performed as a title launched in September that had regular updates through out its second year and was very attractive to kid. And I also expect that Nintendo will sell at least 5M Hardware in 2021. That would be 1.65M additional units by 2022, so yes the game will sell over 10M in its lifetime. Its legs in 2022/2023/2024 will still be at least MK8D level at worse case scenario it's not one of the games that gets resold that ofter. So even if the Switch sells 4M in the next 3 years that's 1.5M additional physical sales per year. I honestly think it will sell over 12M lifetime eventually since I don't expect a new Animal Crossing until 2025. It will also have 30% digital promotions at some point which will ensure that digital sales will also climb. This is on top of the fact that Japan is slowly transitioning to buying digital and this could be a trend that in 2022/2023/2024 might start to affect physical sales of Nintendo evergreens. With games now requiring constant upgrades, it's a matter of time online heavy games like Animal Crossing to start having over 30% digital share at Japan, we are not there yet but we will get there eventually. Behaviors do change over time and even in Japan retail's days are numbered, which could change how numbers get reported. Hope we continue to get Famitsu numbers since this is definitely an interesting topic for me and one of the reasons I've posted here, GAF and Resetera.