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noshten on 11 July 2020
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TOP 10 2020 Switch Famitsu Q1:

  1. Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 2.608.417
  2. Pokemon Sword / Shield - 554.390
  3. Ring Fit Adventure - 249.488
  4. Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Rescue Team DX - 218.394
  5. Minecraft - 185.900
  6. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 181.921
  7. Smash Ultimate - 170.222
  8. Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training for Nintendo Switch - 151.351
  9. Super Mario Party - 118.077
  10. Luigi's Mansion 3 - 117.482

TOTAL: 4.555.642

TOTAL HARDWARE: 1.700.352

TOP 10 2020 Switch Famitsu Q2:

  1. Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 2.396.303(-8.1%)
  2. Ring Fit Adventure - 328.387(+31.6%)
  3. Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 171.620(new)
  4. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 164.113(-9.7%)
  5. Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition - 123.920(new)
  6. Smash Ultimate - 114.495(-32.7%)
  7. Splatoon 2 - 114.226(+10.2%)
  8. Trials of Mana - 100.451(new)
  9. Minecraft - 94.762(-49%)
  10. Super Mario Party - 85.551(-27.5%)

TOTAL: 3.693.828(-18.9%)

TOTAL HARDWARE: 966.530(-43.1%)

  • Down >50%: Pokemon Sword/Shield, Brain Training, Pokemon Mystery Dungeon, Luigis Mansion 3
  • Down >40%: Hardware, Minecraft
  • Down >30%: Smash Ultimate
  • Down >20%: Super Mario Party
  • Down >10%: Software
  • Down >5%: Animal Crossing: New Horizon, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
  • Up >10%: Splatoon 2
  • Up >30%: Ring Fit Adventure

Very interesting performance in Q2, we have seen the rise of Ring Fit Adventure & to a lesser degree Splatoon 2.

Software is only slightly down compared to the huge difference in Hardware sold, Minecraft drop correlates exactly with Hardware drop. Software, New Horizon and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe had very soft drops this quarter. Overall we can see the distribution of where new owners are flocking to, Pokemon Sword/Shield is the worst performing evergreen and it remains to be seen how the DLC effects the game legs in Q3, still it was outperformed by Super Mario Party which I found surprising. 

We also had three new games this quarter that made the top 10, I expect Clubhouse Games to be the best performing one for next quarter as both Trials of Mana and Xenoblade won't have the same type of legs. 

Prediction for Q3 Sales:

  1. Animal Crossing: New Horizon >900K
  2. Ring Fit Adventure >450K
  3. Paper Mario: The Origami King >400K(new)
  4. Captain Tsubasa >350K(new)
  5. eBaseball Powerful Pro Yakyuu 2020 >300K(new)
  6. Clubhouse Games: 51 >200K
  7. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe >175K
  8. Splatoon, Smash Ultimate, Pokemon Sword/Shield >125K

TOTAL >3.15M

HARDWARE TOTAL >1.25M

This is not taking into account unannounced games, I expect a lot of 3rd party games to release before the end of the Quarter that hasn't been revealed yet. Also, there is a decent chance Nintendo releases something in August/September that could shake things up. 

Ring Fit, New Horizon & Hardware predictions are optimistic in terms of Nintendo being able to produce enough to both raise the baseline by over 25% for the rest of the quarter and provide enough copies of Ring Fit. New Horizons will sell at least 80% of the hardware total in the coming quarter. 

I expect big launches for Paper Mario, Captain Tsubasa and eBaseball, all games have a great chance to pass 500K this year. I expect the rest of the evergreens to be flat unless some kinda DLC or promotion is made during the holiday weeks around Obon. 

Clubhouse Games will be the only game with the biggest growth from Q2 to Q3, its another +500K title. 

Pokemon Sword/Shield is the only one I'm really uncertain on... although DLC have helped it's nothing pronounced so it remains to be seen if it starts to perform on par with the likes of Splatoon 2 and Smash, let alone Mario Kart 8 Deluxe.