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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: Week 27, 2020 (Jun 29 - Jul 05)

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There is a conflict between this page and the other about ring fit, 19285 here and 12285 on the other page.



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RolStoppable said:

Switch down year over year, but this against 2019's best summer week before the revised hybrid SKU launched in week 35. Said revision as well as the Lite were known by this point of last year, so the weekly baseline of 2019 was lackluster for a while despite Fire Emblem: Three Houses during said period.

Week 2019 Weekly 2019 Cumulative 2020 Weekly 2020 Cumulative Difference Weekly Difference Cumulative
1 225.698 225.698 284.827 284.827 59.129 59.129
2 83.136 308.834 116.301 401.128 33.165 92.294
3 71.672 380.506 96.458 497.586 24.786 117.080
4 51.556 432.062 67.987 565.573 16.431 133.511
5 66.448 498.510 75.922 641.495 9.474 142.985
6 61.042 559.552 100.961 741.456 39.919 181.904
7 64.313 623.865 80.312 821.948 15.999 198.083
8 49.139 673.004 41.490 863.258 -7.649 190.254
9 66.453 739.457 53.098 916.356 -13.355 176.899
10 67.624 807.081 50.585 967.941 -17.039 160.860
11 55.478 862.559 57.274 1.025.215 1.796 162.656
12 56.812 919.371 392.576 1.417.791 335.764 498.420
13 49.852 969.223 282.561 1.700.352 232.709 731.129
14 46.850 1.016.073 154.640 1.854.992 107.790 838.919
15 54.101 1.070.174 25.313 1.880.305 -28.788 810.131
16 40.338 1.110.512 27.874 1.908.179 -12.464 797.667
17 42.108 1.152.620 107.104 2.015.284 64.996 862.664
18 41.735 1.194.355 78.731 2.094.015 36.996 899.660
19 41.736 1.236.091 78.731 2.172.746 36.995 936.655
20 32.564 1.268.655 38.380 2.211.126 5.816 942.471
21 25.936 1.294.591 52.557 2.263.683 26.621 969.092
22 33.154 1.327.745 107.593 2.371.276 74.439 1.043.531
23 33.590 1.361.335 68.192 2.439.468 34.602 1.078.133
24 34.321 1.395.656 55.187 2.494.655 20.866 1.098.999
25 29.058 1.424.714 78.428 2.573.083 49.370 1.148.369
26 59.184 1.483.898 93.799 2.666.882 34.615 1.182.984
27 75.481 1.559.379 52.250 2.719.132 -23.231 1.159.753
28 55.823 1.615.202
29 45.596 1.660.798
30 42.689 1.703.487
31 36.613 1.740.100
32 46.338 1.786.438
33 46.339 1.832.777
34 30.072 1.862.849
35 90.553 1.953.402
36 77.392 2.030.794
37 51.619 2.082.413
38 239.740 2.322.153
39 196.489 2.518.642
40 89.137 2.607.779
41 56.680 2.664.459
42 54.067 2.718.526
43 69.438 2.787.964
44 119.397 2.907.361
45 88.772 2.996.133
46 180.136 3.176.269
47 179.992 3.356.261
48 186.763 3.543.024
49 188.501 3.731.525
50 236.625 3.968.150
51 291.485 4.259.614
52 234.268 4.493.885

Switch sales this year up to this week is on par with it's sales last year on week 42. In other words, it has a 15 week lead over last year.

Let that sink in for a while...



PS4 down over 200k with FFVII and TLOU 2. A long wait until the PS5 comes out and then poof goes PS4.



Is this a new record low for the PS4, or has it been lower?



curl-6 said:

Is this a new record low for the PS4, or has it been lower?

I feel like we seen it go 3k. 



Pocky Lover Boy! 

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Marth said:
Amnesia said:

There is a conflict between this page and the other about ring fit, 19285 here and 12285 on the other page.

What other page?

19285 is correct. You can find it here on Famitsu https://www.famitsu.com/news/202007/09201930.html

Here:

https://www.vgchartz.com/article/444409/japan-weekly-week-27-2020/



I'm about 80% certain at this point that overall Shipped+Digital numbers for New Horizons have passed 7 million and is getting close to tying Gold/Silver.



PAOerfulone said:
I'm about 80% certain at this point that overall Shipped+Digital numbers for New Horizons have passed 7 million and is getting close to tying Gold/Silver.

I'm sure we'll know more in 3 weeks with Nintendos next quarterly report.



TOP 10 Switch Famitsu 2019:

  1. Pokemon Sword / Shield - 2.744.658
  2. Smash Ultimate - 1.057.012
  3. Super Mario Maker 2 - 774.102
  4. New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 735.437
  5. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 587.829
  6. Minecraft - 579.998
  7. Super Mario Party - 464.208
  8. Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age S - 456.426
  9. Luigi's Mansion 3 - 446.649
  10. Ring Fit Adventure - 443.118

TOTAL: 8.289.437

TOP 10 Switch Famitsu 2020:

  1. Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 5.058.226
  2. Pokemon Sword / Shield - 658.970
  3. Ring Fit Adventure - 597.160
  4. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 356.071
  5. Smash Ultimate - 291.828
  6. Minecraft - 286.766
  7. Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Rescue Team DX - 259.513
  8. Splatoon 2 - 225.989
  9. Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training for Nintendo Switch - 221.713
  10. Super Mario Party - 217.418

TOTAL: 8.173.654

Next week 2020 would likely overtake 2019 total with 25 Weeks left of the year - including the biggest ones we see in terms of sales(outside of Animal Crossing New Horizon launch). Usually, Nintendo sells 50% of Software/Hardware in the Q4 period, this will be difficult to achieve because nothing can match with New Horizon hype and the way it has risen the demand for the system.

New Horizon sales are just insane

FAMITSU TOP SELLING GAMES JAPAN ALL TIME(physical):

9. Brain Age 2 (DS) - 5.082.322

10. Animal Crossing: New Leaf (3DS) - 5.067.988

11. Animal Crossing: New Horizons (Switch) - 5.058.226

Next week Animal Crossing: New Horizons will become the 9th best selling game of all time overtaking Brain Age 2 and New Leaf

In the last 14 weeks, Nintendo has sold 1M Switches & 2.2M physical copies of New Horizon

Currently, the game has 35% physical attach rate in Japan, assuming it sold 1M-1.5M ditital we are looking at 42-46% attach rate on 14.1M user based for 16 Week on the Market, the only game that sold more copies quicker was Pokémon Gold / Silver which ended up being 4th Best Selling game of all time but before the end of the year.

If we see 1M Switch units sold in the next 12 weeks, I would estimate we would see something like 800K units of New Horizon

Ring Fit Adventure could be the sleeper hit in Q3

The unknown question is Ring Fit Adventure's sales in Q3, the game sales are strongly linked with supply. So if Nintendo provides a similar supply to Q2 we would be looking at 300K sales, but it's possible for Nintendo to provide a larger supply to sell 500-800K units easily. The game is mainly limited by the physical peripheral and is not meeting demand anywhere in the World. Currently, in most markets we are seeing stock disappear as soon as it's shipped to retailers. This is why it could be that the game really blows up during this quarter if they have finally solved their supply chain woes. 

Paper Mario to me is #3 for Q3

Paper Mario will be third but it remains to be seen how much it is able to sell. I would estimate it's sales around 350K for the Quarter for the time being. 

Predictions by Q3:

  • Animal Crossing: New Horizon >5.9M
  • Ring Fit Adventure >900K
  • Pokemon Sword / Shield - >750K
  • Mario Kart 8 Deluxe >525K
  • Smash Ultimate & Minecraft >375K
  • Paper Mario: The Origami King >350K
  • Splatoon 2 & Clubhouse Games >325K
  • Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training & Super Mario Party >275K

TOTAL for TOP 10 by end of Q3 >10M

Another interesting thing to watch out for is the number of games that end up selling over 300K in 2020, don't be surprised if we have over 20 titles with over 300K in sales. 

Last edited by noshten - on 10 July 2020

NSW 23  (9 of which are third party)
PS4 7 (4 of which are third party)

This week Switch has 9/13 = 69% of third party games on the top 30.  This is not terribly different from the past two weeks.  Most third party games on the Top 30 are Switch games now.  It should be obvious that NSW is the platform of choice for third party developers in Japan.  That is the platform where third party games are selling, it has the largest install base, and it is powerful enough to play about 90% of the third party games coming out of Japan.

Most weeks going forward, I'd expect Switch to have the majority of the third party games in the top 30.