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Forums - Sales Discussion - 2013 to 2020 1st party reception and sales battle - Redone

The_Liquid_Laser said:
src said:

The sales segment is pointless imo. Nintendo provides quarter by quarter sales info on all their software. MS has stopped giving numbers eversince XB1 massively declined. Sony only gives numbers whenever they feel like.

I think its best to look at ranges, bare in mind a fair amount of this is predicting LTD:

Nintendo

25-30M : Mario Kart, AC
20-25M: SSB, Zelda, MO, Pokemon
15-20M:
10-15M: Pokemon third entry, Splatoon, SMP
5-10M: LM3, SMM, 2D Zelda
<5M: FE, Kirby, Xenoblade, etc

Sony

25-30M : TLOU II (?)
20-25M: Spiderman
15-20M: GOW, UC4
10-15M: Horizon, GoT (?)
5-10M: GT, DG, Bloodborne, Ratchet, Death Stranding (?)
<5M: Gravity Rush, Team ICO, LBP, Infamous etc

MS

25-30M :
20-25M:
15-20M:
10-15M:
5-10M: Forza Horizon, Halo
<5M: Forza Motorsport, Gears, SoT, SoD, Crackdown etc

The metacritic score tracker is great. Really shows how Sony and Intendo have excelled in first party games while MS is virtually lost.

Is this post meant to be a joke?  You are projecting lifetime sales, but you don't think Mario Kart is going to sell anymore?  Meanwhile TLOU2 is going to sell more than any game Sony ever made at 25m-30m?  LOL, WTF?  I mean TLOU is in the 10-15m range if you are counting PS4 only.  Or are you combining platforms?  In that case Mario Kart 8 is already above 30m and still selling.  There is basically no consistency to any of this and some of the numbers are made up from games not even released yet.

Lifetime projections look more like this, single platform.


Nintendo

40M+: Mario Kart, AC
20-30M: SSB, Zelda 
10-20M: MO, Pokemon, Pokemon Let's Go, Splatoon, SMP
5-10M: LM3, SMM, 2D Zelda
<5M: FE, Kirby, Xenoblade, etc

Sony

40M+: 
20-30M: 
10-20M: Spiderman, GOW, UC4, TLOU, Horizon
5-10M: GT, DG, Bloodborne, Ratchet 
<5M: Gravity Rush, Team ICO, LBP, Infamous, Death Stranding etc

MS

40M+ :
20-30M:  
10-20M: Halo
5-10M: Forza Horizon, Gears
<5M: Forza Motorsport, SoT, SoD, Crackdown etc

It's true that Sony's first party output is a lot better than Microsoft's, but it doesn't hold a candle to Nintendo's first party games.  Going by sales numbers Nintendo > Sony > Microsoft.  Going by critical reception, yeah I can see how people can come to a different conclusion though.

30-40 2D AAA Mario, Sports motion games. 



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Mandalore76 said:

Am I the only one that finds the term "Game of the Year Award" has been getting used pretty loosely around the internet? It seems like websites pop up solely to announce their choice of "Game of the Year" in a given year and then just disappear. For example, the list of "Game of the Year" stats that I was linked to from Dualshockers for 2013 accounts for 523 total GOTY winners. But 2017 only totals 333 total GOTY winners. That's a pretty huge disparity. I clicked on several of the "GOTY" winners on the 2013 list and was either taken to a site with a "Top 10" list that didn't use the phrase "GOTY" at all, or in other cases a broken link for a site that no longer existed. For reference, the 2012 list totals 385 GOTY winners, and the 2014 list totals 374 GOTY winners.  

Even excluding the "Readers Picks", and comparing just the "Critics Picks" shows the same disparity.  2013 accounts for 360 "Critics Picks", which was an increase from 262 "Critics Picks" from 2012.  But a year later in 2014 they were back to only 255 critics still around? 2013 just seems ridiculously weighted against any other year I looked at for comparison.

https://gotypicks.blogspot.com/2013/09/2013-game-of-year.html

https://gotypicks.blogspot.com/2017/09/2017-game-of-year.html

Probably have good fluctuation as well for reviewer publications, if you go for each game you'll see that there was a great variation in the number of reviews received per title.

The review numbers could vary more since the averages of the publishers is pretty close. But no matter how we cut the GOTY nominations the disparity is huge.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Kyuu said:
I appreciate your efforts but isn't like one third of those only owned/published? Shadow of the Colossus and The Last Guardian are more eligible than Bloodborne and Everybody's Golf in my opinion.

I don't like getting involved in Nintendo stuff on VGC but I'm pretty sure many of the listed games aren't co-deveoped in any meaningful capacity by Nintendo's own studios (much like Bloodborne and Everybody's Golf).

You can go about it in two ways: business and game dev.

Business wise if Sony or Nintendo publish it, it is considered part of their portfolio.

Gaming dev is more blurry, in that its case specific. Sony for instance were the ones behind the idea of Demons Souls and Bloodborne and even had design decisions in both games.

Many people tend to overlook the importance of QA as well. QA ultimately shapes the game you play. It is through testing and feedback that design decisions are tuned to. Its hugely influential to the final output and hence the QA company and producers have a potentially big part in the game. Its case specific but to get an idea, one can see how Sony's QA in many Konami PS2 games shaped them, most notably MGS2. I believe the MGS2 making of doc shows this.



It is interesting to me that the average score is pretty close between all three of them. When you compare that to the huge discrepancy in raw numbers of games, and big discrepancy in numbers of highly rated games, where both Sony and Nintendo look much better than MS, I think that average can be seen to demonstrate one point where MS beats the others - they release less crap.



VAMatt said:
It is interesting to me that the average score is pretty close between all three of them. When you compare that to the huge discrepancy in raw numbers of games, and big discrepancy in numbers of highly rated games, where both Sony and Nintendo look much better than MS, I think that average can be seen to demonstrate one point where MS beats the others - they release less crap.

Some will complain about the lack of variety and certainly MS also reached lesser peaks of both critical acclaim and sales (and even on the averaged their GOTY have been almost inexistent), but yes MS have mostly achieved an average to good on their releases. Sure there will be the ones that like it hot or cold without middle ground but others like the middle and certainty that they will have a minimum level.

In the end I would say that the Sony fans know which studios they can buy without doing any previous checking, MS they can choose some IPs or even purchase any titles and it won't be broken, but for Nintendo outside of their flagships that fan will need to check if the series is what they like and etc (but sure that is due to they having a much higher output and associated studios due to having to feed their platforms almost by themselves and it being impossible to keep it feed with only stelar titles).

For that reason I put four different ways to look, individual games (sales, score and GOTY), totals, averages and stratified. This way we can see more than one side of the spectrum. And certainly if MS gave more sales numbers (instead of no numbers for the first half and players on the second half) their sales average would be considerably higher.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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VAMatt said:
It is interesting to me that the average score is pretty close between all three of them. When you compare that to the huge discrepancy in raw numbers of games, and big discrepancy in numbers of highly rated games, where both Sony and Nintendo look much better than MS, I think that average can be seen to demonstrate one point where MS beats the others - they release less crap.

One mans trash is another mans treasure. 

Keep in mind that more games, even bad games are always better than less. There is always a group out there who is outside the norm and might love those trashy games. Then its a reason to choose that platform. Also remember the risk factor. Not all games will make it big, so the more you have the higher chance you will have a few hits. At the end of a generation is the big hits that people look back on.



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

Microsoft already had their chance. They had some of the best developers all within their grasp during 360 and they messed it all up.

Bungie - creator of the best selling FPS of all time at the time. Halo was also a media monster. Its 3.3 million in 12 days opening in US is still unmatched.
MS fucked it up by forcing them to continue working on Halo, which eventually led to them leaving

Lionhead - basically Bullfrog at the point MS hired them, had the best selling PC games of all time at that time, and insane talent. One of them went on to create Deepmind, another is at Bungie as director of production and 4 of them left to create Media Molecule which Sony bought. Molyneux also eventually spiralled and left.
MS fucked it up by making them a Fable studio. Bullfrog was recognised as one of the greatest due to its wide variety of IPs. Hearing they were just a Fable studio led to the splitting

Epic - can you imagine how different things would be if MS had Epic. Gears of War was a gigantic success for them.
MS was too constrictive of their output, resulting in them wanting to cut their ties with any publisher control

Rare - do I even need to say anything. Following their unbelievable N64 output MS bought them for an eye watering $377 million. A shadow of their former selves.
MS once again fucked them up with their focus on mature games and corporate culture. The founders left shortly, the GoldenEye/Perfect Dark team left to make Timesplitters at Free Radical, much of the platforming team left for Playtonic making YokaLaylee and to drive away further talent MS had them as a Kinect studio for many years

MS had 4 ND level studios (even higher considering the properties they had) and they fucked up every single one of them. The new studios are a start but can't match the pedigree of the prior four which MS will never again attain.



Ratchet & Clank sold 5 mil+.



During the weekend I'll try to update OP with the games suggested in the posts.

@trunkswd I believe some of the sources people post can help we update our database.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Insomniac said RC PS4 was their best selling game, prior to Spiderman, which would put it at 5 million+