Switch had a lead of ~6m over the PS4 through the first 36 months, so the often cited advantage of the PS4 in Europe has been more than offset by other regions.
So did the Wii but that didn't matter in the end.
Did Switch not fall behind at the end of this quarter though? (Yes I know PS4 had one more Christmas on it but still)
Also to Slownenberg's credit Sony does dominate Europe and the Switch staying power still lingers in a lot of peoples minds.
We have no idea how next gen consoles will affect the sales of the Switch (Especially with Nintendo not having anymore Directs this year and very little 1st party games this fall)
or even if Switch can dominate a region like PS4 has in its 6th year on the market. Their "home console" support at times tapers off after 5 years or so.
What if they're forced to make a new "Switch 2" in order to continue getting 3rd party ports next gen? Surely that will get cut into sales and fragment the install base as well.
It's definitely not cut and dry that Switch will pass PS4 at all.
1. Bringing up the Wii is pointless when its sales trajectory doesn't match Switch.
2. Switch fell behind by ~1.5m which it will easily make up for with its own fourth holiday season. At 48 months we can expect Switch's lead over the PS4 to be equal or greater than 6m.
3. The only people who question Switch's staying power are those who don't properly understand how hardware sales momentum works.
4. Neither the PS5 or XSX will have any meaningful impact because there's no historical precedent of a competitor's console launch having a noteworthy effect, ever. Considering that Nintendo's forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2021 assumes that their first party games can release as planned, your statement that Switch will have very few first party games this fall is baseless. Up until last week people like you believed that Nintendo couldn't possibly have a game scheduled for July, but now it's confirmed that they do. Late announcements don't mean that games aren't close to completion.
5. It's a foregone conclusion that neither the PS5 or XSX will achieve big numbers in Japan, so your arbitrary qualifier is being met. Your "concern" about Switch's first party support tapering off is unfounded, because Nintendo won't have a transitional period where they have to juggle four different consoles which was the reason for reallocated first party support that came at the expense of older consoles. Their most recent transitional period had only three consoles and the 3DS continued to receive first party games for two years after Switch had already launched. Nintendo's next transitional period will have only two consoles (Switch and its successor), so it can be expected that Switch will see at the very least eight years of first party support like the 3DS did.
6. Sounds like you haven't paid any attention to what makes Switch sell. It's not ports of AAA third party games, so pretending that Nintendo could be forced to launch Switch 2 early is a clear case of make-believe. At their latest financial briefing, Nintendo once again reiterated that they intend to give Switch a longer lifecycle than their previous consoles, and so far their strategical moves through a good three years fully back that up.
7. Perhaps it's not 100% guaranteed, but in order to seriously doubt it, there would have to be good reasons for said doubt. You have offered none of that and instead relied on points that have been outdated since 2018.