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Forums - Gaming - Next gen PS5/XB1SX sales ratio will look the same as this gen's. Huge changes in console marketshare require huge changes in the industry.

Pyro as Bill on 14 June 2020
Train wreck said:
Pyro as Bill said:

Ahem

How many PS4/XB1 sales are due to Fortnite?

The last shipment numbers from Take Two in 2012 was that the game shipped 25 million so... Ahem

And for your second question, we don't know, probably the same as Grand Theft Auto 5 , NBA2kXX, Madden XX, COD XX, FIFA XX and countless other games.

It's still early yet, give Smash a little longer. Does that 25m exclude PC?

You mean combined, right? So if Fortnite sold ~20m consoles then it's fair to say this gen wouldn't be as big as last gen without a new megahit IP.

Last edited by Pyro as Bill - on 14 June 2020

Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

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mjk45 on 14 June 2020
RolStoppable said:
Cerebralbore101 said:

Rol, your reading comprehension is just poor. You are fighting an imaginary battle with the Cerebralbore in your head, instead of actually addressing me or what I said. 

Forza 8 and Halo Infinite will run on Xbox One, Xbox One X, PC, and Xbox Series X. Those aren't going to move units, because everybody interested in those games has hardware to play those games already.

^There I am talking about how being available on four systems will affect sales. 

Your argument was "Halo Infinite and Forza will push sales for Series X, and the system that has the best 3rd party performance will come out on top". 

I refuted the first part of your argument, by pointing out that Halo Infinite and Forza will be playable on four platforms in total. 

This reduces your argument to "Halo Infinite and Forza will push sales for Series X, and the system that has the best 3rd party performance will come out on top"

Since your argument had been reduced to a single point ala refutation, I then asked the following rhetorical question "Can you give an example of a console winning a generation solely by having better graphics in 3rd party titles?"

Asking such a question =/= Stating that you actually believe that a console can win via nothing but 3rd party performance. 

At best it merely implies it. But that's what you've done these past few posts. You've attempted to read between the lines of what I actually said, to extract your own strawman interpretation, and then went on to attack said strawman. 

Your method of straw-manning is as bad as people that say "Black Lives Matter? That implies what white lives don't matter! The BLM movement thinks white lives don't matter!"

All this time I gave you the benefit of the doubt, because I didn't want to believe that your thought process is the way you laid it out here. But now it's clear, you are 100% convinced that Halo and Forza can't move XSX hardware. Good luck with that.

Before I bow out of this discussion with you, I want to reiterate that my argument has never been "the system that has the best third party performance comes out on top." I said it's an important factor for sales because the majority of bestsellers on PS and Xbox consoles are multiplats. That's as basic of a statement as Halo being capable of moving hardware, but you don't want to acknowledge either one and therefore there's no chance whatsoever that any progress is going to be made in this discussion.

I have a question for you guys concerning the third party/exclusives situation in regards to whether or not you see any substantial change happening,I'm not talking so much about changes to the ratio of third party to First party in the top ten or twenty best sellers, more along the lines of those top selling first party games starting to sell at a rate more inline with similar ranked third party games. I did a quick look at the top 15 or so PS3 titles and only GT5 had reached 10m+ and the rest had much lower numbers in comparison to the  third party games around their mark.

Looking at PS4 paints a different picture yes that picture is murky due to VGC changes, but if you take into account the developer numbers the first party growth has been phenomenal with numbers being over double and even triple in some cases and they are now more in tune with and in some cases exceeding what you expect from their similar ranked third party counterparts,now this was not a comprehensive delve into those sales but on the surface there seems to be changes afoot in PS4's case anyway. and Rol can knock sense into me when needed it seems there first party is becoming Nintendo lite.

Last edited by mjk45 - on 14 June 2020

Research shows Video games  help make you smarter, so why am I an idiot

mjk45 on 15 June 2020
RolStoppable said:
mjk45 said:

I have a question for you guys concerning the third party/exclusives situation in regards to whether or not you see any substantial change happening,I'm not talking so much about changes to the ratio of third party to First party in the top ten or twenty best sellers, more along the lines of those top selling first party games starting to sell at a rate more inline with similar ranked third party games. I did a quick look at the top 15 or so PS3 titles and only GT5 had reached 10m+ and the rest had much lower numbers in comparison to the  third party games around their mark.

Looking at PS4 paints a different picture yes that picture is murky due to VGC changes, but if you take into account the developer numbers the first party growth has been phenomenal with numbers being over double and even triple in some cases and they are now more in tune with and in some cases exceeding what you expect from their similar ranked third party counterparts,now this was not a comprehensive delve into those sales but on the surface there seems to be changes afoot in PS4's case anyway. and Rol can knock sense into me when needed it seems there first party is becoming Nintendo lite.

First party game sales on the PS4 have seen a huge improvement over the PS3, but it shouldn't be expected that the PS5 will see growth at the same or a similar rate. Reasons being that Sony's game output won't increase by a signficant degree (there won't be more than two big games per year on average) and that Sony may try to profit more from it (on the PS4 they cut their software prices fast despite good sales). Multiplats will remain more important because the yearly rhythm of Call of Duty and FIFA alone already matches Sony's two big games per year on average, and there are a lot more big multiplats than just those two of them.

Microsoft is going to see more sales growth than Sony in the first party game department, but that's moot when Microsoft is working from a much, much lower base, so outdoing their Xbox One efforts by a big margin while still being notably behind Sony's PS5 output aren't statements that contradict each other. First party sales performance is a lot like the overall thread question; it's not about whether or not Microsoft can beat Sony, but whether or not Microsoft can make things closer than in the PS4 vs. XB1 generation.

Good analyse Rol ,so it's like looking at a weekly sales  chart where  Switch or PS4 increase sales say 50k each and xbox increases 5k but xbox gets the bigger % increase.



Research shows Video games  help make you smarter, so why am I an idiot

Cerebralbore101 on 17 June 2020

I'd just like to throw something into the "Series X will have better graphics" argument.

The original PS4 had 40% more teraflops than the original Xbox One. The Series X has 16.7% more teraflops than the PS5. The 2080 Ti (14.2 TF) has 56% more teraflops than the 2070 Super (9.1 TF). But when playing Witcher 3 at 1440p this only results in a difference of 35 FPS between the two cards. 2070 Super will run the game at 100 FPS, and 2080 Ti will run the game at the same settings at 135 FPS. That means that despite having 56% more teraflops than the 2070 Super, the 2080 Ti only gets a 35% performance increase. This just illustrates diminishing returns. If we divide the 35 frames performance boost by the 56% Teraflops advantage we get 0.625 more frames per 1% teraflops increase. This means that if PS5 runs a game at 1440p 100 FPS, then Series X will run the same game at 1440p 110 FPS. A measly 10% performance increase for that 16.7% more teraflops that Series X has. Or to translate that into 60 FPS, that would mean that PS5 runs games at 60 FPS and Series X runs games at 66 FPS. This of course assumes that both new consoles will be targeting 60 FPS, which isn't essential to my argument. We could just assume they both run at 30 fps and say that Series X gets 3 frames more per second, over PS5, for example.

At any rate I hope this illustrates just how much people are splitting hairs when they argue that Series X is more powerful. Keep in mind that PS5 has the SSD that is twice the speed of the Series X SSD, with a custom SSD controller to boot. This could very well translate to a 5%-20% performance boost in games. I don't know if it will or not, but just the fact that it's possible, and the fact that the teraflops difference is so damned low this time around means, that you can't just automatically come out and say that Series X is guaranteed to be better at running 3rd party games. Also keep in mind that even if PS5 games just load faster, and aren't actually better looking, I'd take half the loading times over a 10% performance increase any day of the week. I think most consumers would as well.

Edit: Just for clarification, this isn't directed at anyone in particular. Series X having more power is a common argument in this thread. There have been at least three or four posters that have mentioned this so far.

Oh, and just for one more piece of information. XB1X has nearly 50% more teraflops than PS4 Pro. That's way more than the 16.7% that Series X has over PS5. I think people are expecting there to be the same graphics difference between PS5 and Series X as there was between OG XB1, and PS4. Or the same graphics difference as there is between the Pro and the 1X. This post was just to illustrate that it simply isn't going to be the case with PS5 and Series X.

Last edited by Cerebralbore101 - on 17 June 2020

Runa216 on 17 June 2020
Cerebralbore101 said:

I'd just like to throw something into the "Series X will have better graphics" argument.

The original PS4 had 40% more teraflops than the original Xbox One. The Series X has 16.7% more teraflops than the PS5. The 2080 Ti (14.2 TF) has 56% more teraflops than the 2070 Super (9.1 TF). But when playing Witcher 3 at 1440p this only results in a difference of 35 FPS between the two cards. 2070 Super will run the game at 100 FPS, and 2080 Ti will run the game at the same settings at 135 FPS. That means that despite having 56% more teraflops than the 2070 Super, the 2080 Ti only gets a 35% performance increase. This just illustrates diminishing returns. If we divide the 35 frames performance boost by the 56% Teraflops advantage we get 0.625 more frames per 1% teraflops increase. This means that if PS5 runs a game at 1440p 100 FPS, then Series X will run the same game at 1440p 110 FPS. A measly 10% performance increase for that 16.7% more teraflops that Series X has. Or to translate that into 60 FPS, that would mean that PS5 runs games at 60 FPS and Series X runs games at 66 FPS. This of course assumes that both new consoles will be targeting 60 FPS, which isn't essential to my argument. We could just assume they both run at 30 fps and say that Series X gets 3 frames more per second, over PS5, for example.

At any rate I hope this illustrates just how much people are splitting hairs when they argue that Series X is more powerful. Keep in mind that PS5 has the SSD that is twice the speed of the Series X SSD, with a custom SSD controller to boot. This could very well translate to a 5%-20% performance boost in games. I don't know if it will or not, but just the fact that it's possible, and the fact that the teraflops difference is so damned low this time around means, that you can't just automatically come out and say that Series X is guaranteed to be better at running 3rd party games. Also keep in mind that even if PS5 games just load faster, and aren't actually better looking, I'd take half the loading times over a 10% performance increase any day of the week. I think most consumers would as well.

Edit: Just for clarification, this isn't directed at anyone in particular. Series X having more power is a common argument in this thread. There have been at least three or four posters that have mentioned this so far.

Oh, and just for one more piece of information. XB1X has nearly 50% more teraflops than PS4 Pro. That's way more than the 16.7% that Series X has over PS5. I think people are expecting there to be the same graphics difference between PS5 and Series X as there was between OG XB1, and PS4. Or the same graphics difference as there is between the Pro and the 1X. This post was just to illustrate that it simply isn't going to be the case with PS5 and Series X.

I know, right? For all intents and purposes, the Xbox Series X and PS5 will be virtually identical to the common eye, and anyone who cares about raw power will get a PC, am I right? 



My Console Library:

PS5, Switch, XSX

PS4, PS3, PS2, PS1, WiiU, Wii, GCN, N64 SNES, XBO, 360

3DS, DS, GBA, Vita, PSP, Android

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Cerebralbore101 on 10 July 2025

I wound up being right. Xbox Series sold 33.12 million, with PS5 selling 76.31 million. That means Xbox Series is being outsold by a ratio of 2.3 to 1. PS4 sold 117.2 million and XB1 sold 57.96 million. This means XB1 was outsold by PS4 by a ratio of 2.02 to 1. 

I made this thread because a lot of people seemed to think that all the Xbox acquisitions would mean that Series would make a return to the PS3/370 era of close sales figures. However, many people today are left wondering if the Series will even break the 40 million mark. 



mjk45 on 10 July 2025
Cerebralbore101 said:

I wound up being right. Xbox Series sold 33.12 million, with PS5 selling 76.31 million. That means Xbox Series is being outsold by a ratio of 2.3 to 1. PS4 sold 117.2 million and XB1 sold 57.96 million. This means XB1 was outsold by PS4 by a ratio of 2.02 to 1. 

I made this thread because a lot of people seemed to think that all the Xbox acquisitions would mean that Series would make a return to the PS3/370 era of close sales figures. However, many people today are left wondering if the Series will even break the 40 million mark. 

You need to make a new thread when PS6 and the next Xbox are announced, also for our entertainment you will have to send out invites to all those who participated in this one and while that will see the the vast majority of invites going out to those riding on the side of the ridiculous, don't forget the one or two that were sensible/got lucky.



Research shows Video games  help make you smarter, so why am I an idiot

Cerebralbore101 on 10 July 2025
mjk45 said:
Cerebralbore101 said:

I wound up being right. Xbox Series sold 33.12 million, with PS5 selling 76.31 million. That means Xbox Series is being outsold by a ratio of 2.3 to 1. PS4 sold 117.2 million and XB1 sold 57.96 million. This means XB1 was outsold by PS4 by a ratio of 2.02 to 1. 

I made this thread because a lot of people seemed to think that all the Xbox acquisitions would mean that Series would make a return to the PS3/370 era of close sales figures. However, many people today are left wondering if the Series will even break the 40 million mark. 

You need to make a new thread when PS6 and the next Xbox are announced, also for our entertainment you will have to send out invites to all those who participated in this one and while that will see the the vast majority of invites going out to those riding on the side of the ridiculous, don't forget the one or two that were sensible/got lucky.

I will but we will have to see how many people go the "Consoles are dead, the future is Gamepass and multiplat!" route of deflection. So it will probably be a thread that's not just about PS6 vs XB Series 2. But also a thread that tracks whether or not "Consoles are irrelevant."



Shaunodon on 10 July 2025

You're attempting to use the current sales ratio to pat yourself on the back, but by the time this generation ends the sales ration could actually be closing in on 3:1 compared to last-gen's 2:1.

Your prediction was that nothing much would change from last-gen, but in reality Xbox has actually torpedoe'd their brand and lost so much of the little marketshare they had left, they've now already entered the emergency escape codes and are mapping out their transition into an umbrella company/publisher that sell niche psuedo-console PCs on the side.

The status quo obviously hasn't been kept with Xbox essentially leaving the console platform space.



Shaunodon on 10 July 2025
HollyGamer said:
Cerebralbore101 said:

People forget how much has to change for one video game company to make serious inroads to another company's share of the console market. 

Atari basically imploded leaving the way for the NES. Nintendo was gutsy as all hell back in the day, walking into toy stores, post crash, and trying to get them to stock a video game console. 

Genesis/Megadrive launched up to 2 years earlier, had an amazing ad campaign, and ran with the familiarity of the Sega Arcade brand. 

PS1 dominated its generation because, a mass 3rd party exodus from Nintendo, Sega imploding with Saturn, and the huge difference in production costs between N64 carts, and PS1 discs. Not to mention PS1 launching a year earlier, with an insanely aggressive price point.

Then you have the 360/Ps3 gen, where...

MS launched a year ahead.

PS3 was being sold $200 over 360.

There was a mass exodus of 3rd party devs from being Sony exclusive developers to making games for both 360, and PS3.

360 was better at running 3rd party games, making it arguably the more powerful console.

MS had a really damned good 1st party lineup throughout the gen.

Even with all that happening 360 still came slightly behind PS3 in lifetime sales. MS played the best possible hand it could, and Sony played pretty much the worst possible hand, with the lone exception being their stellar 1st party output late in the gen.

Finally, we have the current gen where MS pretty much burned their entire brand to the ground in 2013, sold their weaker console for $100 more, put their best content on PC, and basically gave up on making quality 1st party content outside of Forza, Gears, Halo (without buying up an already existing studio, which is just another variant on the old moneyhat trick). On the flipside Sony had insane 1st party output this gen, and had a huge number of 3rd party titles either launch 1st on Playstation, or outright never come to Xbox.

Oh, and as far as Nintendo goes, they had to massively change their strategies with both the Wii, and the Switch in order to make a comeback. I really don't think the Switch or the Wii needs explaining, so I'll leave it at that. 

That's why Microsoft divide their focus across all aspect from  subscription based model , PC windows (even Steam) and Xcloud. Console is just an old remnant for Microsoft. 

Xbox Series are just a placeholder for PC games in console form, Soon they will start to decrease the production and making  many variant of Xbox Series. Xbox console for Microsoft is just a medium while content is the main sales. 

Xbox are trying to get rid the stigma as console business oriented to subscription and game content company. 

We will not see any difference from hardware sales point or i can bet that next gen It will be landslide for PS5 over X series on Hardware. But a good bump on software and subscription revenue for Microsoft Xbox division.  

The actual post that seems to predict all the major outcomes that actually happened. If anyone should be patting themselves on the back it's this person.

Of course the bump in software and subscription revenue is almost entirely down to Big Daddy Microsoft giving Young Master Xbox a small loan of ~70 Billion something dollars, so they could just buy several of the biggest existing publishers and rebrand all their products, but, you know... details.

Xbox may have some of the most incompetent and clueless management in the industry, but at least they have access to the deepest amount of cashflow to take brands people like do whatever they wish with them.