Forums - Sales Discussion - Animal Crossing: New Horizons 5 Million Digital in March - Single Month Record for any game

RolStoppable said:
SpokenTruth said:

11.77 million total in March.

Nintendo stated that digital downloads represented 48.5% of all software sales in Q4 were digital. And of that, 76.9% were digital downloads of boxed retail titles. That means on average though all of Q4, 37.3% of all software sales came from digital downloads of boxed retail titles. Given that the pandemic started in full swing the same month AC:NH released, it's same to assume that March had an even higher percent of digital downloads of boxed retail titles.

For AC:NH to have sold the estimated 5 million digitally, it needs just a 42.5% digital download volume.

If it's 37.3% for the whole quarter, anybody doubting it couldn't be 42.5% for just March? And for AC:NH specifically?

Also, there is this.

That would put it nearer to 5.9 million digitally.

Page 21: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2020/200507_3e.pdf

48.5% of all software revenue in Q4 was digital. Don't confuse this with unit sales.

76.9% of the digital software revenue was made by download versions of packaged software. Again, don't confuse this with unit sales.

These aren't stats that allow to derive unit sales from them. David Gibson might have made the same mistake you did. Consider that if you turn the numbers the other way around (to determine shipments of physical copies), you'd end up with only ~6m physical games getting shipped. I don't remember the exact physical numbers for Japan based on Famitsu data, but I think they were above 2m for sell-through, meaning that Japan would have received more than one third of worldwide  physical shipments which is hard to believe.

Given that boxed retail typically has a higher average price than digital software, it's fair to say you need a ton of digital games sales to get 48.5% of revenue.  And there basically is no difference in digital or retail pricing for boxed retail titles. And AC probably made a up huge proportion of both in Q4.

And why would it be odd that Japan received a third of boxed retail units? Page 19.  Japan total - 3.84 million.  Rest of world - 7.93 million.  It sold exactly 32.6% in Japan.


And I'm sure you noticed the massive increases for both digital overall and digital sales of boxed retail units over previous quarters. If AC didn't account for that massive jump....what did?



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SpokenTruth said:

Given that boxed retail typically has a higher average price than digital software, it's fair to say you need a ton of digital games sales to get 48.5% of revenue.  And there basically is no difference in digital or retail pricing for boxed retail titles. And AC probably made a up huge proportion of both in Q4.

And why would it be odd that Japan received a third of boxed retail units? Page 19.  Japan total - 3.84 million.  Rest of world - 7.93 million.  It sold exactly 32.6% in Japan.


And I'm sure you noticed the massive increases for both digital overall and digital sales of boxed retail units over previous quarters. If AC didn't account for that massive jump....what did?

I added an edit to my previous post. Famitsu had AC at 2.6m sell-through by March 29th, so shipments of physical copies had to be ~3m for Japan alone, so roughly half of the worldwide total you propose. If Japan got ~3m, then that leaves only ~1.5m for the Americas and ~1.5m for Europe and the rest of the world; those figures are quite unlikely for a flagship game like AC that got pushed hard by Nintendo.

The coronavirus restrictions are the obvious reason for a general jump in digital sales. AC's digital sales are certainly higher than for previous Nintendo titles, but if they were 5m or more in March alone, then the physical numbers don't quite add up anymore. Retailers want of course some physical stock on their shelves, so both American and European retailers would have had to grossly underestimate demand for the game, otherwise it doesn't add up.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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RolStoppable said:
SpokenTruth said:

Given that boxed retail typically has a higher average price than digital software, it's fair to say you need a ton of digital games sales to get 48.5% of revenue.  And there basically is no difference in digital or retail pricing for boxed retail titles. And AC probably made a up huge proportion of both in Q4.

And why would it be odd that Japan received a third of boxed retail units? Page 19.  Japan total - 3.84 million.  Rest of world - 7.93 million.  It sold exactly 32.6% in Japan.


And I'm sure you noticed the massive increases for both digital overall and digital sales of boxed retail units over previous quarters. If AC didn't account for that massive jump....what did?

I added an edit to my previous post. Famitsu had AC at 2.6m sell-through by March 29th, so shipments of physical copies had to be ~3m for Japan alone, so roughly half of the worldwide total you propose. If Japan got ~3m, then that leaves only ~1.5m for the Americas and ~1.5m for Europe and the rest of the world; those figures are quite unlikely for a flagship game like AC that got pushed hard by Nintendo.

The coronavirus restrictions are the obvious reason for a general jump in digital sales. AC's digital sales are certainly higher than for previous Nintendo titles, but if they were 5m or more in March alone, then the physical numbers don't quite add up anymore. Retailers want of course some physical stock on their shelves, so both American and European retailers would have had to grossly underestimate demand for the game, otherwise it doesn't add up.

Digital + Physical:
Japan total - 3.84 million.
Rest of world - 7.93 million.

Physical:
Japan - 2.6 million.
Rest of world - 4.17 million (based on the 5 million estimate figure below).

Digital:
Japan - 1.24 million (32.3%)
Rest of word - 3.76 million (presuming the 5 million digital total).



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

SpokenTruth said:

Digital + Physical:
Japan total - 3.84 million.
Rest of world - 7.93 million.

Physical:
Japan - 2.6 million.
Rest of world - 4.17 million (based on the 5 million estimate figure below).

Digital:
Japan - 1.24 million (32.3%)
Rest of word - 3.76 million (presuming the 5 million digital total).

Just like it is with console hardware, physical shipments of games will have units on shelves and in transit. Japan had sell-through of 2.6m by March 29th, so that leaves two extra days, copies on shelves and copies that are underway. So you have to tack on something to the 2.6m figure when you make an estimate of physical shipments for Japan. What you tack on has then to be deducted from the rest of the world figure, hence why I don't think that the numbers can add up with the fundamental premise of 5m digital copies sold. You are looking at under 4m physical copies shipped to the rest of the world.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

According to Famitsu, it sold 423,367 physical units the week of March 30 - April 05. Divide it up by 7 days, you get 120,962. Then we get....

Digital + Physical:
Japan total - 3.96 million.
Rest of world - 7.81 million.

Physical:
Japan - 2.72 million.
Rest of world - 4.05 million (based on the 5 million estimate figure below).

Digital:
Japan - 1.24 million (32.3%)
Rest of word - 3.76 million (presuming the 5 million digital total).



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

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SpokenTruth said:
According to Famitsu, it sold 423,367 physical units the week of March 30 - April 05. Divide it up by 7 days, you get 120,962. Then we get....

Digital + Physical:
Japan total - 3.96 million.
Rest of world - 7.81 million.

Physical:
Japan - 2.72 million.
Rest of world - 4.05 million (based on the 5 million estimate figure below).

Digital:
Japan - 1.24 million (32.3%)
Rest of word - 3.76 million (presuming the 5 million digital total).

Your calculations still assume 0 copies on Japanese shelves and none in transit. We are talking about a high demand game in its infancy here, so there should be a notable amount of copies in transit. As far as I know, Nintendo counts copies as sold to retailers as soon as they've been ordered and are underway to retailers, just like they do with console hardware.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

kirby007 said:
5 million for a nintendo game, is this the sign digital is popping off for nintendo
nice

I think it's more about the fact that the pandemic has made digital the go-to for a lot of people who can't go to their local stores to pick up (non-essential) games.



I got it all, baby! 

PS4, Switch, WiiU, XBO, PC
Vita, 3DS, Android

Top 6 this generation: 
Bloodborne, Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice, God of War, The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild, Dark Souls III, Red Dead Redemption II

From today's Investor Q&A:

- Animal Crossing: New Horizons' digital sales accounted for about 50% of total sales



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

With the recent sales update, the Switch now has:


The highest-selling Animal Crossing (After like, a month?)
The highest-selling 3D mario
The Highest-selling Smash Bros
The Highest-Selling Zelda game
The highest-Selling Mario Party game
The highest-Selling Splatoon, Mario Maker, and Luigi's Mansion games
the Second-Highest selling Mario Kart
the fourth-highest selling pokemon (And that will likely go up before the end of this console generation to third or maybe even second)

so yeah, Switch is doing very well. Sadly, no uber-sellers like Wii Sports or Wii Play or Wii Fit, but outside of those outliers, the Switch MIGHT prove to be Nintendo's most successful console! and with hits like Animal Crossing doing so well (and Smash and Zelda also vastly outperforming previous franchise sales record holders), I can definitely say the Switch is one of my top three favourite consoles.



I got it all, baby! 

PS4, Switch, WiiU, XBO, PC
Vita, 3DS, Android

Top 6 this generation: 
Bloodborne, Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice, God of War, The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild, Dark Souls III, Red Dead Redemption II

Update from Superdata for Month 2 (Apr 2020)

Link

Animal Crossing: New Horizons is setting records left and right -- it's now the top-selling Nintendo Switch title for both lifetime digital sales and lifetime digital revenue.

According to SuperData, the game sold 3.6 million digital units in its second month, down 27% from its March sales but still the top-selling digital title on console, above Final Fantasy 7 Remake -- which sold 2.2 million digital units in April -- at No.2 and FIFA 20 at No.3.

Per Nintendo, AC Digital Share for opening was 50%.  We know that figure and we know that total shipped for March 2020 (3/20 - 3/31, 12 days) was 11.77M.

From there, the only number we must estimate is sell-through % OR its inverse - # of units in transit & on shelves.  Going with sell-through % representing PHYSICAL only.  Here are a few scenarios:

Sell% | Physical | Digital | Trans/Shelves

75% | 5.05M | 5.05M | 1.58M

80% | 5.23M | 5.23M | 1.31M 

85% | 5.40M | 5.40M | 0.96M

90% | 5.58M | 5.58M | 0.62M

95% | 5.73M | 5.73M | 0.32M

So for Superdata's ~5M estimate to be true, sell-through would have had to have been <75%, which I guess could be possible if the 11.77M includes an extra week of shipments in advance.  But based on stock reports seems a bit low.