Looks like the east were just as hyped by the new Zelda trailer as the west were

We witness a king's revival.

theDX's COMG! Japan Pre-Order Chart April  18, 2023

Famitsu's most wanted games poll:

1. [PS5] Final Fantasy XVI – 965 votes
2. [NSW] Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom – 959 votes
3. [NSW] Pikmin 4 – 514 votes
4. [PS5] Street Fighter 6 – 477 votes
5. [PS5] Final Fantasy VII Rebirth – 461 votes
6. [PS5] Pragmata – 292 votes
7. [PS5] Like a Dragon 8 – 214 votes
8. [NSW] Ys X – 166 votes
9. [PS4] Like a Dragon 8 – 164 votes
10. [NSW] Mega Man Battle Network Legacy Collection – 159 votes
11. [NSW] Etrian Odyssey Origins Collection – 151 votes
12. [NSW] Atelier Marie Remake – 148 votes
13. [NSW] Master Detective Archives: Rain Code – 133 votes
14. [NSW] Suikoden I & II HD Remaster: Gate Rune and Dunan Unification Wars – 114 votes
15. [NSW] Baten Kaitos I & II HD Remaster – 113 votes
16. [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World: Chikyuu wa Kibou de Mawatteru! – 111 votes
17. [PS5] Ys X – 109 votes
18. [PS5] Like a Dragon Gaiden: The Man Who Erased His Name – 108 votes
19. [PS4] Like a Dragon Gaiden: The Man Who Erased His Name – 106 votes
20. [NSW] Professor Layton and the New World of Steam – 103 votes
21. [PS4] Street Fighter 6 – 101 votes
22. [NSW] Fantasy Life i: The Girl Who Steals Time – 85 votes
23. [NSW] Ushiro – 80 votes
24. [NSW] Infinity Strash: Dragon Quest The Adventure of Dai – 74 votes
25. [NSW] Natsu-Mon! 20th Century Summer Vacation – 72 votes
26. [NSW] Buccanyar – 71 votes
27. [PS5] Diablo IV – 69 votes
28. [PS5] Tekken 8 – 67 votes
29. [PS4] Granblue Fantasy Relink – 66 votes
30. [PS4] Hogwarts Legacy – 64 votes

Definitely not going to trust COMG numbers to be reflective of FW sales for FFXVI.

Famitsu's most wanted games - April 16, 2023 (nintendoeverything.com)

Ushiro still hanging in there

Famitsu's readers have always been more Playstation leaning. While Comg isn't the best point of reference, Famitsu's poll had FFXVI ahead of Splatoon 3 and Pokémon S/V last year. That poll is way less trustworthy unless you expect FFXVI to sell over 4mil in it's first week.

TotK's first week physical shipment is going to be 1mil while FFXVI is unlikely to ever reach that even including digital looking at how software sales have so far behaved on PS5.

The Amazon best seller charts are a good way to gauge interest. TotK is at #1, #8,#18. It has been #1 for many months now. FFXVI is at #4 and I think this is the highest it's been so far.

In the GEO pre-order charts (one of the largest gaming store chains in Japan) TotK has been #1 for many months now, while FFXVI is #3, up from #4 the previous week.

The farthest off Comg has been in recent years was with Pokémon Legends Arceus and that was because they had a shortage.

The best example is Animal Crossing New Horizons vs FF 7 Remake. FF7 remake always had way more votes than Animal Crossing, yet what happened during the launch week for both games? FF7 Remake did 700k while Animal Crossing did 1.8 million. The Famitsu most wanted isn't a good indicator for how well games sell. Zelda and FF16 are very close in votes, but we all know Zelda will obliterate FF16 in sales.

theDX's COMG! Japan Pre-Order Chart April  19, 2023

I wasn't trying to suggest that the Famitsu Poll ranking would reflect sales accurately. TOTK will certainly outsell FFXVI. But COMG seems to heavily underrepresent ps5 titles at the moment. FFXVI has 39 points at the same time where FFXV had 250 points which would suggest a massive decrease in interest in FF in Japan and I don't believe that is the case. FFXVI will certainly sell less than FFXV imo but I believe COMG points are greatly exaggerating the situation.

RE4 had 59 points on PS5 and 98 points on PS4 but sold better on PS5 FW. If we look at Atelier Ryza that sold 1,479 units per point on PS5 compared to 864 units per point on Switch. Hogwarts Legacy on PS5 was also massively underrepresented on COMG selling a huge 3,537 units per point FW. When just looking at the last few games already finds a range of 800 per point to 3600 per point it's hard to see how COMG points can really be used as even a rough suggestion of sales potential.

Something I think that should be worth noting:
As of the end of last year, the total shipped+digital units for Breath of the Wild in Japan is a whopping 3.51 million (this includes the Wii U version during the last quarter of FY '17 when the Switch launched).
For a series whose best selling game in Japan, prior to the Switch, was at just around 1.7 million, that is MIND-BLOWING!
I searched for the best selling Final Fantasy games over there, and it appears the only two games in that series ahead of Breath of the Wild are VII (4.22) and VIII (3.7).

Though, I don't know how valid those numbers are.

But even so, the fact that a Zelda game is able to reach those levels and actually give the PS1 Final Fantasy games a run for their money - That thought would have been straight up laughable pre-Switch launch. Yet, here we are and it's a reality. And every sign and indication is that Tears of the Kingdom will do monstrous numbers as well. Absolutely incredible!