Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 21 March 2020 - Animal Crossing: New Horizons

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9.08 Million left for Switch to outsell the NES. Crazy.



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Even i came pretty close to picking up a NS for AC... But eff it, with all thats going on that three hundred bux may come in handy in a few weeks.

Last edited by loy310 - on 28 March 2020

curl-6 said:
kirby007 said:

not like we have the internet right?

Even factoring in online retailers, I just can't see a system peaking in the year of the worst pandemic in over a century.

Not to mention they have yet to prove they have any more major, system-selling games for the rest of the year.

The pandemic is not something to worry about when it comes to video game sales. Apparently Australia is less affected by corona than other relevant video game markets, so I suppose it's possible that you have the wrong idea of what the shutdown/hibernation of the economy in those other places really means.

Console sales are shifting from brick and mortar retailers to online stores, so do physical game sales. Games are also available in digital format, so software is even easier to purchase than hardware. The purchase options are not an issue.

While there is a notable number of people who have lost their jobs due to consequences of the corona spread, the governments in North America and Europe are offering plenty of support to help the vast majority of people through the crisis. For example, in central Europe employees can see their work hours reduced to 10% of what they normally do, yet still receive a good 80% of their usual wage. This means a lot of additional free time at home while the disposable income remains; less work hours also mean less money spent on food. For the most part, any damage you could think of that the pandemic can do to video game sales is offset by a measure that governments employ, so things balance out.

Also, the strict measures to contain corona won't last forever because the economical needs have to be fulfilled. The current shutdown will definitely not last beyond spring and the shutdown is also happening during a period of the year that isn't exactly strong for video game sales. Or in other words, any damage you can imagine to occur will be made up for in the latter half of the year when life has returned to normal.

What speaks the most against Switch peaking in 2020 is that 2021 can be even better, so 2020 would merely be the best year yet.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

Even factoring in online retailers, I just can't see a system peaking in the year of the worst pandemic in over a century.

Not to mention they have yet to prove they have any more major, system-selling games for the rest of the year.

The pandemic is not something to worry about when it comes to video game sales. Apparently Australia is less affected by corona than other relevant video game markets, so I suppose it's possible that you have the wrong idea of what the shutdown/hibernation of the economy in those other places really means.

Console sales are shifting from brick and mortar retailers to online stores, so do physical game sales. Games are also available in digital format, so software is even easier to purchase than hardware. The purchase options are not an issue.

While there is a notable number of people who have lost their jobs due to consequences of the corona spread, the governments in North America and Europe are offering plenty of support to help the vast majority of people through the crisis. For example, in central Europe employees can see their work hours reduced to 10% of what they normally do, yet still receive a good 80% of their usual wage. This means a lot of additional free time at home while the disposable income remains; less work hours also mean less money spent on food. For the most part, any damage you could think of that the pandemic can do to video game sales is offset by a measure that governments employ, so things balance out.

Also, the strict measures to contain corona won't last forever because the economical needs have to be fulfilled. The current shutdown will definitely not last beyond spring and the shutdown is also happening during a period of the year that isn't exactly strong for video game sales. Or in other words, any damage you can imagine to occur will be made up for in the latter half of the year when life has returned to normal.

What speaks the most against Switch peaking in 2020 is that 2021 can be even better, so 2020 would merely be the best year yet.

Surely the shuttering of brick and mortar outlets in many countries has to have some effect, plus the likelihood of fewer sales-driving software releases due to COVID-19 hitting developers. 

I'm also not too sure if life will have "returned to normal" by the latter half of the year; apparently a vaccine for coronavirus could be 12-18 months away from reaching the public, and until then restrictions will be necessary to limit its spread.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:

Surely the shuttering of brick and mortar outlets in many countries has to have some effect, plus the likelihood of fewer sales-driving software releases due to COVID-19 hitting developers. 

I'm also not too sure if life will have "returned to normal" by the latter half of the year; apparently a vaccine for coronavirus could be 12-18 months away from reaching the public, and until then restrictions will be necessary to limit its spread.

There have been no restrictions on online stores as far as I know, so it's very probable that people who are used to going to brick and mortar retailers will choose to purchase a console online over not purchasing a console. Due to the increased time at home, people have to figure out how to pass the time, so these are favorable circumstances for increased video game sales because the means to purchase hardware and software despite the current restrictions already existed before governments issued their measures.

In regards to fewer sales-driving software releases, Nintendo uses a strategy of high quality releases that remain relevant for years after their release. I am sure you remember the prolonged stretches in Switch's life where the release schedule was very light on sales-driving software releases, but the hardware sales didn't collapse and the flagship Switch console still costs the same three years after its launch. On top of that, Animal Crossing released only a week ago. It's pretty absurd that you worry about not enough sales-driving software at a time when one of the biggest games of the year has just released. If you are concerned about delays of future game releases, the delays attributable to corona measures won't be more than two months, a period of time that Switch has already proved to be able to handle.

Life will return to normal because it has to; the wealth of nations depends on it. More than 90% of corona infections have only mild to moderate symptoms that go away within 7-10 days, and like with other illnesses, once the human body has handled it, it's close to 100% resistent to another infection of the same type for a prolonged period of time. The vast majority of the population does not need a vaccine to combat corona. You have to understand that the restrictions to limit the spread are in place to take care of the under 10% who will have serious conditions. Hospitals don't have enough personnel and material to handle a huge wave, so the measures to limit the spread can also be viewed as measures to spread the spread over a longer period of time, allowing currently infected people to recover in hospitals and open up those spots for people who get infected later down the line.

The world won't be in an artificial coma for 12-18 months because it won't be long from now that the financial well-being of the population will take priority over the lives of the few. Going forward, restrictions will be adjusted so that only the people who are at risk will be urged to stay at home and depend on delivery services and/or people who go shopping for them. The rest of the population will be allowed to go back to work. If those people who are more or less back to normal life get infected by corona, they'll take a week or two off from work, sit out their illness and then return.

Corona isn't a super deadly virus. It's the uncertainties about it and the lack of a vaccine that have led to all these drastic measures. But the more data is collected, the clearer it becomes how small the percentage of people at risk of serious conditions is. Unemployment numbers have been rising at around ten times the speed of the numbers of infections. Politics commonly are a choice of the lesser evil because many situations have no option that is inherently good, and it's better for re-election to aim to please the largest number of people possible. That's why the questions of employment and economy will soon dictate how this crisis will be handled, because it will become clear that upholding the current restrictions will do more harm than good to the population at large.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

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RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

Surely the shuttering of brick and mortar outlets in many countries has to have some effect, plus the likelihood of fewer sales-driving software releases due to COVID-19 hitting developers. 

I'm also not too sure if life will have "returned to normal" by the latter half of the year; apparently a vaccine for coronavirus could be 12-18 months away from reaching the public, and until then restrictions will be necessary to limit its spread.

There have been no restrictions on online stores as far as I know, so it's very probable that people who are used to going to brick and mortar retailers will choose to purchase a console online over not purchasing a console. Due to the increased time at home, people have to figure out how to pass the time, so these are favorable circumstances for increased video game sales because the means to purchase hardware and software despite the current restrictions already existed before governments issued their measures.

In regards to fewer sales-driving software releases, Nintendo uses a strategy of high quality releases that remain relevant for years after their release. I am sure you remember the prolonged stretches in Switch's life where the release schedule was very light on sales-driving software releases, but the hardware sales didn't collapse and the flagship Switch console still costs the same three years after its launch. On top of that, Animal Crossing released only a week ago. It's pretty absurd that you worry about not enough sales-driving software at a time when one of the biggest games of the year has just released. If you are concerned about delays of future game releases, the delays attributable to corona measures won't be more than two months, a period of time that Switch has already proved to be able to handle.

Life will return to normal because it has to; the wealth of nations depends on it. More than 90% of corona infections have only mild to moderate symptoms that go away within 7-10 days, and like with other illnesses, once the human body has handled it, it's close to 100% resistent to another infection of the same type for a prolonged period of time. The vast majority of the population does not need a vaccine to combat corona. You have to understand that the restrictions to limit the spread are in place to take care of the under 10% who will have serious conditions. Hospitals don't have enough personnel and material to handle a huge wave, so the measures to limit the spread can also be viewed as measures to spread the spread over a longer period of time, allowing currently infected people to recover in hospitals and open up those spots for people who get infected later down the line.

The world won't be in an artificial coma for 12-18 months because it won't be long from now that the financial well-being of the population will take priority over the lives of the few. Going forward, restrictions will be adjusted so that only the people who are at risk will be urged to stay at home and depend on delivery services and/or people who go shopping for them. The rest of the population will be allowed to go back to work. If those people who are more or less back to normal life get infected by corona, they'll take a week or two off from work, sit out their illness and then return.

Corona isn't a super deadly virus. It's the uncertainties about it and the lack of a vaccine that have led to all these drastic measures. But the more data is collected, the clearer it becomes how small the percentage of people at risk of serious conditions is. Unemployment numbers have been rising at around ten times the speed of the numbers of infections. Politics commonly are a choice of the lesser evil because many situations have no option that is inherently good, and it's better for re-election to aim to please the largest number of people possible. That's why the questions of employment and economy will soon dictate how this crisis will be handled, because it will become clear that upholding the current restrictions will do more harm than good to the population at large.

My suggestion was never that sales would fall drastically, just that I don't think this will be Switch's peak year.

And I think you may be underestimating COVID-19, it may not be Ebola or Smallpox in terms of deadliness but there's enough people in high-risk categories like older people, people with chronic illness and pre-existing conditions, etc that life's not going to go back to normal within this year, 



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

People surprised about Animal Crossing have not been paying attention during the DS and 3DS years.



curl-6 said:

My suggestion was never that sales would fall drastically, just that I don't think this will be Switch's peak year.

And I think you may be underestimating COVID-19, it may not be Ebola or Smallpox in terms of deadliness but there's enough people in high-risk categories like older people, people with chronic illness and pre-existing conditions, etc that life's not going to go back to normal within this year, 

curl, sales falling is an implicit suggestion because by week 12 Switch is up ~960k year over year. At some point you must expect sales to decrease drastically, otherwise you won't get below 2019's YTD performance.

Wuhan was the epicenter of corona and is already in the process of returning back to normal after a good two months. That's going to be a step by step procedure, so it's going to take a few months until really everything is like it used to be. If only your optimism wasn't restricted solely to PS sales... more balance in distribution would make your outlook less depressing for yourself.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

I came across some normal switches for more than retail prices jeez incredible for such an old machine



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RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

My suggestion was never that sales would fall drastically, just that I don't think this will be Switch's peak year.

And I think you may be underestimating COVID-19, it may not be Ebola or Smallpox in terms of deadliness but there's enough people in high-risk categories like older people, people with chronic illness and pre-existing conditions, etc that life's not going to go back to normal within this year, 

curl, sales falling is an implicit suggestion because by week 12 Switch is up ~960k year over year. At some point you must expect sales to decrease drastically, otherwise you won't get below 2019's YTD performance.

Wuhan was the epicenter of corona and is already in the process of returning back to normal after a good two months. That's going to be a step by step procedure, so it's going to take a few months until really everything is like it used to be. If only your optimism wasn't restricted solely to PS sales... more balance in distribution would make your outlook less depressing for yourself.

China is getting things back on track, this is true, and it will help resolve Switch's supply issues at least, but China was only able to contain COVID-19 (for now) through extreme measures that the West don't seem willing to implement.

There's no way places like America or Europe are gonna have COVID-19 beaten as soon as two months from now. By the latter months of the year we may have reached the point where the current restrictions can be eased, but it still won't be completely back to business as usual until we achieve mass vaccination and herd immunity, and that's extremely unlikely to be possible within 2020.

Plus last year we had the gigaton bombshell of Switch's first mainline Pokemon game to supercharge the holiday quarter; there's no word yet on whether Switch will have any killer app tier games in the second half of 2020. That's not to say there won't be, there very well might, but it's all up in the air at the moment.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.