I dont get why people keep mentioning so much national polls. Biden can lead by 10 points that it wont make a difference as 2016 showed. What matters are the polls on swing states and how large is biden advantage on those and if it is large enough to cover the "ashamed trumpist" effect.
Also what will be the impact of mail voting in those states.
Another factor is the debates, if they happen at all.

That's a good thing! People should take this seriously.

The key to understanding whether there's likely to be "hidden Trump vote" this time around lies not in the voters' lack of love for Joe Biden, but in their affirmative contempt for President Trump. All of these polls show that more people have a "strongly favorable" view of President Trump than of Biden, but they also show that way more people have a "strongly unfavorable" view of Trump than of Biden. In other words, the fact that Trump generates passion cuts both ways. People simply don't feel strongly about Joe Biden one way or the other. The most exciting thing about Joe Biden's campaign is his running mate, which is why her name appears in almost the same font size in his campaign ads as his own name does. If this were Joe Biden against a more normal Republican, like Marco Rubio, Biden would probably lose, to that end. But this is instead Biden against a president who half or more of the population people doesn't just dislike, but affirmativey hates according to these national surveys. That is the main motivating factor in this election; the reason why already, even before Labor Day, well over 60% of Americans are voicing interest in voting this year, whereas normally you don't see that kind of motivation until like the week before election day. This could well wind up as the highest-turnout election in our lifetimes. And as much would not be good for Trump and the Republicans. Which is why Trump and his people keep trying to find new ways to discourage people from voting (because it's just not legitimate when people vote against him) and have even suggested delaying the election. That doesn't smack of great confidence to me.

Or you could just look at what people name as their top voting priorities in any given survey. Taking the recent Reuters/Ipsos poll Sethnintendo just referenced, which has typical findings (e.g. a 7-point Biden lead, which matches with his polling average) as an example, the coronavirus pandemic was the issue respondents overall prioritized the highest, while crime ranked in as a low priority issue to address. Which convention theme do those priorities most align with: what you saw in the RNC...or at the DNC? Trump's acceptance speech or Biden's? You do the math.

Not that I want to encourage complacency! On the contrary, it's a good thing that Democratic voters overall are scared Trump will win despite the evidence because that fear means they'll actually vote this time around rather than just assume victory and not bother like in 2016. Speaking for myself, I will crawl over broken glass if I have to to cast a ballot in this election. And no, it won't be because I just love Joe Biden. But I don't have to love him to vote for him. My passion for voting in this election is driven by my flat-out hatred of the current president, and that's plenty of motivation for me! I mean personally, I don't want to have to live like this just forever. I'm fucking MISERABLE and stressed out far beyond any reasonable level! At some point I'd like to be able to dine out or INDOORS or go see a movie at the theater and actually feel safe doing so again and wash my hands less than 100 times a day, for example. That'd be a nice change of pace! You know, just basic, simple things that I could do four years ago, and that most people in most other developed countries can do right now in spite of the coronavirus. Just saying it's disrupting my everyday existence to an unreasonable extent, as is worrying about every single individual covid case that makes it to my little town because we have no hospital to overwhelm! That issue alone would be enough to make me vote for Joe Biden by itself even if I liked everything else about Trump (and I certainly don't).

How about this: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Trump is mostly polling between 35-50% in popularity and 50-60% in unpopularity. The rest is either neutral or didn't answer that specific question in the polls.

You called polls which depicted him as under 50% as outliers when your one above 50% is the clear outlier here.

Dan Quayle would beg to differ....

Lol, I forgot about Dan Quayle's presidential run back in 2000!

Still... all those factors are not related to national polls. This could all be applied if this was an election where the majority wins. All those analysis needs to be made on the specific states. After I saw what happened in Michigan in 2016 the only conclusion I have is that we need to wait and see what will happen. As it was proven in 2016 and Brexit, there is a % of conservative voters that are afraid of expressing their political views and will do so ONLY when voting. So yeah, we need to wait and see. Also wait for the debates, in case they happen. But thanks for the info, that was a very interesting read indeed.

As for the part in bold, I definitely do not want to enter a trump x biden discussion because it is just a waste of time in a place like this, or into a covid discussion, but sorry to tell you that this has nothing to do with Trump. He definitely could have helped more instead of the idiot stuff he always say, but the outcome would not be that different. Look at social democracies in Europe with free access to healthcare and the overall picture is the same with only a few outliers like Germany. With Hillary in power the outcome would have been mostly the same unfortunately. If after the elections there is a terrifying second wave during winter and Biden is in power you can be sure the outcome will be mostly the same compared to other rich countries. You should set your expectations low regarding covid. We have only 3 options: 1) Have a vaccine which will make life normal again 2) Learn to live with the virus and understand the risks and what we can do to mitigate it or 3) Stop living and just hide forever. This will happen no matter who is in charge.

Look, there is no unknowns anymore about either candidate. Forget about that secrete Trump hidden vote or hidden Biden vote. People had 3 years + of Trump so they know exactly who he is and what he can do. Trump has the advantage because he is president so its his race to lose not win. If all he does is appeal to his base then he will definitely lose big. At the end of the day, everything still will be decided on the battleground states for the electoral college. Forget about the polls and look to the states each candidate must win and that will show who will come out in the end.

You mean I called polls depicting him over 50% approval as outliers?  Yes I did.  Basically you just proved my point.  Perhaps it is the other person you meant to reply to?

Whoops, sorry! Yeah, my bad, I wanted to quote @Dulfite, not you!