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Forums - Politics - Official 2020 US Presidential Election Thread

Dulfite said:
TallSilhouette said:
Smallest of comforts: the insane RNC this year does not appear to have provided the usual small polling bump that the DNC did.

https://www.vox.com/2020/8/30/21407646/trump-approval-poll-rnc-abc-news-ipsos
https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/abc-republican-national-convention-2020

Well the DNC caused Trump's approval to hit 52%, a record high. Maybe conventions are becoming counterproductive lol.

You are either lying or can't read the approval ratings.  Trump is 52% disapprove and 43% approve.   Trump has never had more than 50% approval in his entire term.



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sethnintendo said:
Dulfite said:

Well the DNC caused Trump's approval to hit 52%, a record high. Maybe conventions are becoming counterproductive lol.

You are either lying or can't read the approval ratings.  Trump is 52% disapprove and 43% approve.   Trump has never had more than 50% approval in his entire term.

Yeah, assuming someone is illiterate or a liar, what a great practice!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/trump-pops-to-52-best-job-approval-rating-on-record-up-with-blacks-even-democrats%3f_amp=true



Dulfite said:
sethnintendo said:

You are either lying or can't read the approval ratings.  Trump is 52% disapprove and 43% approve.   Trump has never had more than 50% approval in his entire term.

Yeah, assuming someone is illiterate or a liar, what a great practice!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/trump-pops-to-52-best-job-approval-rating-on-record-up-with-blacks-even-democrats%3f_amp=true

This Zogby website looks like it was created in 1995 and is run by a teenager. Here's some light reading about the reliability of Zogby from a man who pretty much nails data every election.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/worst-pollster-in-world-strikes-again/



Dulfite said:
sethnintendo said:

You are either lying or can't read the approval ratings.  Trump is 52% disapprove and 43% approve.   Trump has never had more than 50% approval in his entire term.

Yeah, assuming someone is illiterate or a liar, what a great practice!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/trump-pops-to-52-best-job-approval-rating-on-record-up-with-blacks-even-democrats%3f_amp=true

So your only source is an outlier poll.   Why not look at the average of the major polls?   Good job finding one poll.   Let me know when you find another.



sethnintendo said:
Dulfite said:

Yeah, assuming someone is illiterate or a liar, what a great practice!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/trump-pops-to-52-best-job-approval-rating-on-record-up-with-blacks-even-democrats%3f_amp=true

So your only source is an outlier poll.   Why not look at the average of the major polls?   Good job finding one poll.   Let me know when you find another.

Nah, that's not how this works. I stated a poll number I read somewhere, without referencing the link, to contribute to the conversation. Then you out of the blue called me either illiterate or a liar, which was extremely uncalled for, and so I responded by saying how inappropriate that was of you and showing you the link I was originally referencing. My link was purely to prove that you calling me a liar or someone incapable of reading a poll was untrue.

 And even if that poll is an outlier, or by some bogus media outlet hypothetically, it's still a poll that was conducted that I did, in fact, read correctly. How difficult is it to treat someone politely and not assume terrible things about them?



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In recent weeks, the press has told us again and again that the presidential race is tightening. Alrighty well, the conventions are both over now and there's been time now for their contents to register in the polls. Here are the results so far:

-In the Real Clear Politics moving average of polls, Biden now leads Trump by a margin of 7.2 percentage points.
-In the FiveThirtyEight moving average of polls, Biden now leads Trump by a margin of 7.4 percentage points.

In other words, nothing has changed from before the conventions. So much drama, all over quite literally nothing! Folks, "the race is tightening" is what the press has to say because if it's not a close contest then they don't get the ratings they want for covering it. That's the bottom line here. I think many people here on the forums likewise just want this to be more exciting and interesting race than it is. Like...

-Hey, maybe Kanye West will be a factor!
-Maybe a third party will suddenly hit the big time!
-Look look, RNC phone lines are blowing up with under 200 Democrats flocking to the GOP; Trump is closing the gap!
-Hey, maybe there's a "hidden Trump vote" in the Trump-Biden enthusiasm gap even though the polls all say the #1 thing voters are most passionate about in this election is ousting Trump!

Etc.

Yyyyeah-sure. The fact is though that the Democrats chose the most predictable candidate as their nominee (neither major party has ever failed to nominate a current or former vice president when they've opted to run) and he's just coasting to victory against an unpopular president with minimal effort. That's the ACTUAL story of this election. It's pretty dull and straightforward. Sorry to bore everyone with the facts.

This is where the race stands with just two months to go before election day and early voting about to get underway. It's not impossible for Trump to mount a startling epic comeback, but...yeah, it's not looking too likely, is it? Maybe it's time for Trump and the Republicans to start thinking about addressing the rather obvious defining issue of this election, the coronavirus, instead of just obsessing over Confederate statues and white identity politics. *shrugs* It's just a thought.

Last edited by Jaicee - on 02 September 2020

Jaicee said:

In recent weeks, the press has told us again and again that the presidential race is tightening. Alrighty well, the conventions are both over now and there's been time now for their contents to register in the polls. Here are the results so far:

-In the Real Clear Politics moving average of polls, Biden now leads Trump by a margin of 7.2 percentage points.
-In the FiveThirtyEight moving average of polls, Biden now leads Trump by a margin of 7.4 percentage points.

In other words, nothing has changed from before the conventions. So much drama, all over quite literally nothing! Folks, "the race is tightening" is what the press has to say because if it's not a close contest then they don't get the ratings they want for covering it. That's the bottom line here. I think many people here on the forums likewise just want this to be more exciting and interesting race than it is. Like...

-Hey, maybe Kanye West will be a factor!
-Maybe a third party will suddenly hit the big time!
-Look look, RNC phone lines are blowing up with under 200 Democrats flocking to the GOP; Trump is closing the gap!
-Hey, maybe there's a "hidden Trump vote" in the Trump-Biden enthusiasm gap even though the polls all say the #1 thing voters are most passionate about in this election is ousting Trump!

Etc.

Yyyyeah-sure. The fact is though that the Democrats chose the most predictable candidate as their nominee (neither major party has ever failed to nominate a current or former vice president when they've opted to run) and he's just coasting to victory against an unpopular president with minimal effort. That's the ACTUAL story of this election. It's pretty dull and straightforward. Sorry to bore everyone with the facts.

This is where the race stands with just two months to go before election day and early voting about to get underway. It's not impossible for Trump to mount a startling epic comeback, but...yeah, it's not looking too likely, is it? Maybe it's time for Trump and the Republicans to start thinking about addressing the rather obvious defining issue of this election, the coronavirus, instead of just obsessing over Confederate statues and white identity politics. *shrugs* It's just a thought.

The perception this year is funny. In 2016, a Hillary + 4 poll was a decisive victory, in 2020, Biden + 6 makes people panic (including myself).



Moren said:
Jaicee said:

In recent weeks, the press has told us again and again that the presidential race is tightening. Alrighty well, the conventions are both over now and there's been time now for their contents to register in the polls. Here are the results so far:

-In the Real Clear Politics moving average of polls, Biden now leads Trump by a margin of 7.2 percentage points.
-In the FiveThirtyEight moving average of polls, Biden now leads Trump by a margin of 7.4 percentage points.

In other words, nothing has changed from before the conventions. So much drama, all over quite literally nothing! Folks, "the race is tightening" is what the press has to say because if it's not a close contest then they don't get the ratings they want for covering it. That's the bottom line here. I think many people here on the forums likewise just want this to be more exciting and interesting race than it is. Like...

-Hey, maybe Kanye West will be a factor!
-Maybe a third party will suddenly hit the big time!
-Look look, RNC phone lines are blowing up with under 200 Democrats flocking to the GOP; Trump is closing the gap!
-Hey, maybe there's a "hidden Trump vote" in the Trump-Biden enthusiasm gap even though the polls all say the #1 thing voters are most passionate about in this election is ousting Trump!

Etc.

Yyyyeah-sure. The fact is though that the Democrats chose the most predictable candidate as their nominee (neither major party has ever failed to nominate a current or former vice president when they've opted to run) and he's just coasting to victory against an unpopular president with minimal effort. That's the ACTUAL story of this election. It's pretty dull and straightforward. Sorry to bore everyone with the facts.

This is where the race stands with just two months to go before election day and early voting about to get underway. It's not impossible for Trump to mount a startling epic comeback, but...yeah, it's not looking too likely, is it? Maybe it's time for Trump and the Republicans to start thinking about addressing the rather obvious defining issue of this election, the coronavirus, instead of just obsessing over Confederate statues and white identity politics. *shrugs* It's just a thought.

The perception this year is funny. In 2016, a Hillary + 4 poll was a decisive victory, in 2020, Biden + 6 makes people panic (including myself).

Those people didn’t take Trump seriously 4 years ago. They do now (including myself.)



Dulfite said:
sethnintendo said:

So your only source is an outlier poll.   Why not look at the average of the major polls?   Good job finding one poll.   Let me know when you find another.

Nah, that's not how this works. I stated a poll number I read somewhere, without referencing the link, to contribute to the conversation. Then you out of the blue called me either illiterate or a liar, which was extremely uncalled for, and so I responded by saying how inappropriate that was of you and showing you the link I was originally referencing. My link was purely to prove that you calling me a liar or someone incapable of reading a poll was untrue.

 And even if that poll is an outlier, or by some bogus media outlet hypothetically, it's still a poll that was conducted that I did, in fact, read correctly. How difficult is it to treat someone politely and not assume terrible things about them?

Let's just say everything in that poll runs contradictory to this recent article.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/no-bounce-in-support-for-trump-as-americans-see-pandemic-not-crime-as-top-issue-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN25T1I3



Eh, I don't know.

1,335 people seems like far too small of a sample size for a country with a population of ~330,000,000.