In recent weeks, the press has told us again and again that the presidential race is tightening. Alrighty well, the conventions are both over now and there's been time now for their contents to register in the polls. Here are the results so far:
-In the Real Clear Politics moving average of polls, Biden now leads Trump by a margin of 7.2 percentage points.
-In the FiveThirtyEight moving average of polls, Biden now leads Trump by a margin of 7.4 percentage points.
In other words, nothing has changed from before the conventions. So much drama, all over quite literally nothing! Folks, "the race is tightening" is what the press has to say because if it's not a close contest then they don't get the ratings they want for covering it. That's the bottom line here. I think many people here on the forums likewise just want this to be more exciting and interesting race than it is. Like...
-Hey, maybe Kanye West will be a factor!
-Maybe a third party will suddenly hit the big time!
-Look look, RNC phone lines are blowing up with under 200 Democrats flocking to the GOP; Trump is closing the gap!
-Hey, maybe there's a "hidden Trump vote" in the Trump-Biden enthusiasm gap even though the polls all say the #1 thing voters are most passionate about in this election is ousting Trump!
Etc.
Yyyyeah-sure. The fact is though that the Democrats chose the most predictable candidate as their nominee (neither major party has ever failed to nominate a current or former vice president when they've opted to run) and he's just coasting to victory against an unpopular president with minimal effort. That's the ACTUAL story of this election. It's pretty dull and straightforward. Sorry to bore everyone with the facts.
This is where the race stands with just two months to go before election day and early voting about to get underway. It's not impossible for Trump to mount a startling epic comeback, but...yeah, it's not looking too likely, is it? Maybe it's time for Trump and the Republicans to start thinking about addressing the rather obvious defining issue of this election, the coronavirus, instead of just obsessing over Confederate statues and white identity politics. *shrugs* It's just a thought.
Last edited by Jaicee - on 02 September 2020