No way. Losing GTA4 exclusivity is way worse than losing DQX and MH3. GTA:SA sold 18M last generation. DQVIII sold about 4M worldwide. MH does crap on consoles.

Having GTA4 exclusive would have meant they would have thrashed the 360 in NA and Europe this generation (and possible beat the Wii in Europe). Losing GTA4 exclusivity means that the PS3 will find it hard to come a clear second in America.

Losing DQX isn't as bad because the PS3 still has FFXIII and FFvsXIII. If you look at sales, there isn't much difference between DQ and FF sales in japan, but FF is just as strong outside of Japan. FFXIII means that the PS3 will be able to sell respectable numbers in Japan, but losing GTA4 exclusivity means the PS3 has lost a lot of sales.

Also, if 50% of GTA4 sales go to PS3, it will still sell over twice as much as DQVIII. If GTA4 was exclusive,the PS3 sales would probably be 4 times that of DQVIII.

The only game in existence that is as big as GTA is GT.

@Tombi:

Like Ajax mentions: losing DQ + MH means losing japanese support. It's not just about those games, it's about a whole bunch of Japanese games from Capcom, Namco, Koei, Square, Sega etc.

You think that with GTA4 exclusiveness on PS3 would have caused the PS3 to lead in the US???? It's 6 million behind 360. I know GTA4 is big, but it won't sell 6 million consoles.
GTA4 is very casual, so I expect lower sales for GTA4 than for the PS2 ones anyway.

These Japanese games represent at least 4 million console sales in Japan alone, and there are lots of JRPG fans in the West. Already JRPG fans have to choose between FF or the 360 RPG's, very soon there will be great Wii RPG's as well. PS2 had them all.

Well for the Western markets GTA exclusive would make a huge impact, especially with how great it seems to be from previews and early reviews. For Japan, obviously the other games. But Japan's influence in non-handheld gaming is dropping so quckly, I'd have to argue that GTA is the bigger loss. Can you imagine the PS3 momentum and hype if GTA was coming in two weeks and ONLY on PS3?? And following GT5P and leading into MGS4? It'd have been insane.

Instead it's kind of a blip in the sales year versus an earthquake.

If GTA IV was excluvie to the PS3 the XBOX 360 probably wouldn't have stood a chance this year in terms of hardware sales , on a global level I think the loss of GTA IV exclusivity is more of a blow to Sony than MH3 or DQ .

@Benga

The PS3 will at least tie with the 360 in NA, GTA4 exclusivity would have just made it certain.

Most people would choose FFXIII over all the JRPG's out on the 360 at the moment. There are also other JRPG's coming to the PS3 such as, WKS, LR, VC etc. FF isn't the only JRPG coming to the PS3. The Wii will get the most support because it is outselling the PS3 in Japan. Because the PS3 still has FF, loosing DQ isn't so bad.

You should have stuck with your original reaction.

Despite being a PC-exclusive gamer, I come to VGchartz for the console wars, so I have no intention of turning down the fanboyism, but I wasn't knocking other fanboys (at least not in this thread). I was knocking the wildly inaccurate assumptions about the importance of the DQ and MH franchises.

My dig at the 360 was obviously slightly facetious, but it was making a legitimate point. I can guarantee you that the 360's install base would be at least 25% lower if GTA4 had been announced as a PS3 exclusive early on. Is there anybody who would seriously dispute that?

50% of GTA4 sales will still be more than the combined sales of the next installments of MH and DQ. You also have to bear in mind that GTA is without peer. Although numerous copycat titles have emerged in recent years, none have ever even come close to the commercial success of GTA. I don't know about MH, but DQ certainly faces stiff competition from similar popular titles such as FF and KH. Of course, even if you were to add all these titles together, they still wouldn't be as important as GTA exclusivity!

Just look at VGchartz figures and do the maths:

If you add the combined sales of the last instalments of FF, DQ and KH together, the total is 13.4m. If you add to that the sales of the best-selling MH portable title, the total reaches 15.56m, which would still not be enough to counter San Andreas' (console-only) sales of 17.35m. And for that to be the case, you have to assume that not only KH3 and DQ10 but also FF13(!) become Wii exclusive, that there is no crossover between any of the titles, and that MH3 can have the success on home consoles that previous instalments have experienced on the PSP (despite historical evidence to the contrary).

Assuming that 40% of GTA4 sales will be on PS3 (as expected), a more realistic way to surmise the potential pulling power of these franchises and their impact on the current generation would be:

DQ8 + KH2 + MH2 = 8.99m
GTA:SA + FF12 = 22.37m
GTA:SA*0.4 + FF12 = 11.96m

From this we can predict that even if DQ10 and KH3 were Wii exclusive, it would still be less damaging than having GTA4 go multiplatform. And that would also be assuming that there is no crossover in any case, even though the crossover between DQ, KH & MH would obviously be much larger than between FF and GTA in reality.

I may have exaggerated for effect a little in my original comment, but no matter how you look at the numbers, franchises like DQ and MH pale in comparison to the juggernaut that is GTA, and it will shift far, far more consoles than any JRPG. Just wait for the hardware bumps to prove me right.

Don't underestimate how slanted VG forums are in favour of otaku geek culture.

Played out

we know those figures
but the point is, if the PS3 fails in Japan this year,
it's developer support will crumble and it will be over for the PS3

that's why losing DQ and MH going to the Wii is more dangerous than sharing GTAIV with the 360, cause a consoles condition in Japan is more important for it's third party releases, and there by console sales on the long run

PlayedOut:

You might be right.
If like you said 360 sales would have been 25% lower when GTA4 would have been PS3 exclusive you're definitely right.
I also absolutely agree with you on the figures.

The way I see it though is that PS3 and 360 are about the same console right now and GTA is mainly bought by casuals. The ones that buy Madden once every two years. A lot of those, especially in the US, would have bought a 360 anyway, for the sports titles, Forza and Halo.

I think a PS3 exclusive GTA4 would have had lots of trouble to make 10 million in sales. We'll see. If GTA4 makes 8 million on PS3 alone, I'm obviously wrong. R* agrees with me, otherwise they would have focussed on a single platform.

Sure you'll find many "geeks" online, but there's no denying that PS2 sold over 20 million in Japan, something PS3 won't come even close to this gen, and that with enough Japanese games/support PS3 would have passed the 360 already, if it had Wii's sales in Japan plus some additional in the west from "geeks".