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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Predict when will PS4 Outsell Game Boy

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When will PS4 Outsell Game Boy ?

2020 13 30.95%
 
2021 16 38.10%
 
2022 3 7.14%
 
2023 2 4.76%
 
2024 0 0%
 
2025 0 0%
 
Never 2 4.76%
 
COVID-19 (Corona virus) will kill us all 6 14.29%
 
Total:42
DonFerrari on 28 February 2020
Nu-13 said:
DonFerrari said:

My LTD prediction is 120-130M and have been for like 2 years.

And which 2 years of data you have? VGC? Because NPD we have one month, Japan we have almost 2 (but it already declined there a lot), Europe and RoW we have 0. So I'm sorry if we don't trust your pessimistic prediction that PS4 could even not pass GB 120M even if it needs to ship about 10M for that.

Realistic =/= pessimistic. And again with this shipped stuff? SOLD THROUGH numbers are what matter and the gap between shipped and sold will quickly shrink until it eventually dissapears. It has to SELL another 14m after dec 2019 to reach 120m and that's unlikely at the current pace. And let me get this straight, you complain that I'm using actual recent numbers to predict future sales while you keep a prediction from 2 years ago based on old numbers?

Shipped numbers will eventually all become sold numbers, and for PS4 to reach 120M needs to ship 10M, which will probably be done in 2020. So your "never" prediction will unlikely happen.

You are using imprecise number to predict.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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Iamright79 on 28 February 2020

So I was banned for this message without any insult or anything :

-----------------------------

-----------------------------

I have read some days ago that vgchartz website was a fraud, now I get it.

Ban me clowns specially you cycycychris.

~Post Edited to Remove Extremely Inflammatory Language & Off-Site Activity.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 28 February 2020

Nu-13 on 28 February 2020
DonFerrari said:
Nu-13 said:

Realistic =/= pessimistic. And again with this shipped stuff? SOLD THROUGH numbers are what matter and the gap between shipped and sold will quickly shrink until it eventually dissapears. It has to SELL another 14m after dec 2019 to reach 120m and that's unlikely at the current pace. And let me get this straight, you complain that I'm using actual recent numbers to predict future sales while you keep a prediction from 2 years ago based on old numbers?

Shipped numbers will eventually all become sold numbers, and for PS4 to reach 120M needs to ship 10M, which will probably be done in 2020. So your "never" prediction will unlikely happen.

You are using imprecise number to predict.

And the gap between shipped and sold will shrink and dissapear during the end of a system's life. The ps4 is not tracking to sell or shipp anywhere near 10m or 11m (the actual amount to reach 120m) in 2020, so I don't know where that "probably in 2020" of yours comes from.

I am using tangible numbers. What are you using?



hunter_alien on 02 March 2020
Nu-13 said:
hunter_alien said:
Wow.... the shipments are at 109 million and some people still believe it might not reach 120 million lifetime. What a world, what a world...

If you're going to make this kind of post, at least you should try to write a reasoning for your statement. As in, explain the relation between shippments being at 109m and you thinking it will reach 120m for sure.

MY statement was very clearly explained by math. It was at 109m shipped and 106m sold at the end of 2019. Sold through is what matters (difference between shipped and sold will get smaller and smaller anyway). A 45% drop in 2020 would lead to 114m and another 55-60% drop in 2021 would put it around 117m. The ongoing decline afterwards would lead to maybe another 2-3m sales before discontinuation. Given the rate of ps4 drop so far, those numbers are very realistic.

See the difference between an argument and simply dismissing what others said?

No, they are not. The PS4 is likely looking at a price cut and massive black friday discounts this year, and several AAA exclusives, from which at least 3 of them will do 5 million + on this system alone. I am really sorry, but your math is just as much of as most analyst's predictions. You are trying to shoehorn sales patterns of different products onto home consoles, and leading home consoles no less.

I am really sorry, but if you don't see how your prediction (and let's face it, no matter how much math you think you have on your side it's still a prediction) is absurd, I am more than willing to make a bet with you



Vote the Mayor for Mayor!

Nu-13 on 02 March 2020
hunter_alien said:
Nu-13 said:

If you're going to make this kind of post, at least you should try to write a reasoning for your statement. As in, explain the relation between shippments being at 109m and you thinking it will reach 120m for sure.

MY statement was very clearly explained by math. It was at 109m shipped and 106m sold at the end of 2019. Sold through is what matters (difference between shipped and sold will get smaller and smaller anyway). A 45% drop in 2020 would lead to 114m and another 55-60% drop in 2021 would put it around 117m. The ongoing decline afterwards would lead to maybe another 2-3m sales before discontinuation. Given the rate of ps4 drop so far, those numbers are very realistic.

See the difference between an argument and simply dismissing what others said?

No, they are not. The PS4 is likely looking at a price cut and massive black friday discounts this year, and several AAA exclusives, from which at least 3 of them will do 5 million + on this system alone. I am really sorry, but your math is just as much of as most analyst's predictions. You are trying to shoehorn sales patterns of different products onto home consoles, and leading home consoles no less.

I am really sorry, but if you don't see how your prediction (and let's face it, no matter how much math you think you have on your side it's still a prediction) is absurd, I am more than willing to make a bet with you

It had massive black friday discounts for years now, that only helps for one week and didn't stop it from declining a lot last BF. Game releases have little to no effect on hardware this late and a price cut can only slow down the decline for a month or two.

Bring arguments before you call someone's predictions absurd.



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Nu-13 on 04 March 2020

As noted earlier, week 9 numbers put ps4 at around 40% down yoy.