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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

John2290 said:
Amnesia said:

It's likely to be between thst 1% and 3.4%.

It is actually not at all that, based on 72000 closed cases, which is a fucking huge sample to have stable statistics. 1 to 3,4% is an utopia which has no serious explanation, just an anti panic number. 6,06% is what reality has shown after 2 months, having 500.000 or 72.000 cases won't change a lot this result, it is actually getting to be worse now that young asian population are almost done with it. We had a bottom value at 5,64% on March 7th, and now it is increasing every days.

That's not how it works or at least will work out with the current stats. There is a slight possibility it'll be above 3.4 as the window widens between the sick and the dead but it's more likely to fall under it when all is said and done, unless the worst happens and people are sent away from overloaded hospitals to fight it out at home or it has a second phase (I think enough time has passed to rule that out if China is being honest, hopefully) or it mutates sooner than this strain can be dealth with and perhaps starts attacking younger people more acutely but that is why there is and will be hard quaratines when the time is right. 3.4 percent is bad enough, it's 120+ million people if 50% get infected and 200-400 million ICU patients depending on which statistic is true of critical patients. That right there is system crushing, it doesn't even have to be over 1% to be a disaster or at least it doesn't matter in the scheme of things, so you worrying about 3% more means fuck all at the end of the day, It's already the situation that in that is pictured in your head at 3.4%, a disaster.

I'm curius though, where did you get this 6.06% statistic and is their anyone having conversation about it? You've peaked my interest. Where can I find this, a google search showed nothing but my countries health service advice. 

It's from the tracking site
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#case-outcome

It's official now

WHO press briefing:

"PANDEMIC"

But not the time for countries to move to mitigation
Must still try to suppress transmission and continue with containment efforts



Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases:

"Things will get worse." How much worse it will get depends on two things, he said: containing the influx of infected people coming from other countries and containing local outbreaks within the U.S.

When pressed by lawmakers for an estimate of eventual fatalities in the U.S., Fauci said it will be “totally dependent upon how we respond to it.”

“I can’t give you a number,” he said. “I can’t give you a realistic number until we put into the factor of how we respond. If we’re complacent and don’t do really aggressive containment and mitigation, the number could go way up and be involved in many, many millions.”

[source]



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John2290 said:

Screw it, doesn't matter what it is, if it's over 1% the situation stays the same and doesn't just worsen in degrees with higher numbers. The hard quarantines will come and go wherever and whenever they are needed, and we'll work around this through compartmentalization. Don't right off the human ingenuity just yet, we've been through worse with a lot less resources and knowledge. We'll wheather the next two years, or kore if need be. Like the DG of The WHO said, this is the first pandemic in history that can be contained successfully. And who knows, with modern computing and technology we might have a mass produced vaccine before summer 2021. If we need ICUs, we'll build them on the fly, if we need medical staff we'll take students and trian them quickly, if we need to put the economies in debt to feed people, we'll do that too and fix things up in the years following. When all is said and done, there'll be a blooming effected for all aspects of human life when we come out of it, there always is. 

Oh yeah, no doubt we'll get through this. Mobilize the army to build field hospitals, quick deployment of extra beds and quarantine hotels (that's don't collapse) A task force to go from area to area.

The planet will get better from this as well. Plane traffic is already down, less people driving around. More working from home. Virtual meeting software will see a big boom, AR as well. And in the end we'll be better prepared for the next emergency with more redundancies and buffers build into the system. And nothing like a mutual threat to bring people together. Well after the panic phase is done.



John2290 said:

Indeed. We'll make it work, we always do. Never thought of how it will effect technology, it may well usher in AR for meetings or at least adopt FaceTime more broadly which will be more efficient and convenient, that's a cool thought and yeah, maybe it'll end all that decisive political BS of the last few years. Right now though, gotta get those assholes who keep repeating "It's only the flu, bro" or "It's old old people, yo" to realise the depth of the situation, get them to cop the fuck on and meet the situation with the respect it demands cause they might as well be putting people in coffins with their physical hands for allnthe difference it makes. 

Indeed to those "It's only the flu":

252 new cases in Denmark:
Government closes all schools and universities
All public employees will be sent home beginning on March 13 [source]

Merkel warns that up to 70% of Germany's population could contract the coronavirus, which would amount to 58 million people (population of 83.7 million people) [source] [Germany Population]

  • Hungary declares State of Emergency: [source]
    - closes all Universities
    - bans indoor events for more than 100 people
    - bans outdoor events for more than 500 people
    - stops flights, trains and buses from Slovenia and Austria
    - tightens control of the border with Croatia
    - requires quarantine for Hungarian citizens returning from Italy, China, South Korea and Iran

ITALY SHUTS DOWN

Italy closes all commercial activities, offices, cafes, shops

Only transportation, pharmacies, groceries will remain open

[source]



Info:
Got 3 texts from my local NHS Medical Practice this afternoon with the following info:
- Check for advice on gov.uk if I have travelled abroad the last 14 days,
- If suspected of being in contact with the virus, do not attend the surgery, instead call 111 (non emergency),
- In accordance with NHS guidelines online appointments are unavailable at the moment to reduce the risk of patients presenting at the practice with Coronavirus.



Good to see this site is still going 

Wow, Italy just repoting in with 2313 New cases and 196 Deaths...Bit of a bump!

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

I also wonder how many people are just not bothering to get help while being ill too.

Last edited by Quartz - on 11 March 2020

Good to see this site is still going 

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Quartz said:
Info:
Got 3 texts from my local NHS Medical Practice this afternoon with the following info:
- Check for advice on gov.uk if I have travelled abroad the last 14 days,
- If suspected of being in contact with the virus, do not attend the surgery, instead call 111 (non emergency),
- In accordance with NHS guidelines online appointments are unavailable at the moment to reduce the risk of patients presenting at the practice with Coronavirus.

For good reason

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/covid19-first-case-doctor-hamilton-health-sciences-1.5493530

Hopefully Canada smartens up as well. She treated 14 cancer patients while carrying the virus.



SpokenTruth said:

This is why the US should have gotten it's ass in gear long ago.  Look at this trajectory as compared to all other major infection nations.  This is as of today.

Not to tempt fate but it looks like the theory in Downing Street might be the right approach.

S. Korea and the UK have done the most testing relative to the outbreak size. The UK is currently increasing from 1000/day to 10000/day. Theory goes that if you plough money into testing instead of pointlessly testing temperature at airports then you'll have the most accurate numbers whereas without accurate test numbers, you'll be further along the curve than you realise.

We haven't done anything major yet except close the odd school. We kept flights going until the airlines stopped them. If you look at the S Korea curve and take into account that some woman from a crazy sect infected over 1000 people alone then their curve would be similar to the UK's and would also be getting quickly overtaken by countries with possibly underreported cases like they are doing now by Iran, Italy and the US.

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/coronavirus-can-south-korea-be-a-model-for-virus-hit-countries

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/opinion/letters/south-korea-coronavirus.html

Last edited by Pyro as Bill - on 11 March 2020

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Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

Pyro as Bill said:

Not to tempt fate but it looks like the theory in Downing Street might be the right approach.

S. Korea and the UK have done the most testing relative to the outbreak size. The UK is currently increasing from 1000/day to 10000/day. Theory goes that if you plough money into testing instead of pointlessly testing temperature at airports then you'll have the most accurate numbers whereas without accurate test numbers, you'll be further along the curve than you realise.

We haven't done anything major yet except close the odd school. We kept flights going until the airlines stopped them. If you look at the S Korea curve and take into account that some woman from a crazy sect infected over 1000 people alone then their curve would be similar to the UK's and would also be getting quickly overtaken by countries with possibly underreported cases like they are doing now by Iran, Italy and the US.

Looks like all the schools could close soon

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-uk-set-to-move-to-delay-phase-schools-could-close-and-major-events-cancelled-11955695

Coronavirus: PM set to escalate UK's response in a matter of hours

Boris Johnson is set to escalate the UK's coronavirus response to the next phase - meaning schools could be forced to close, major sporting events cancelled and people made to work from home.



First confirmed case, and death, here in Guyana South America. Person recently arrived from New York. Just how effective is the airport screening?

She arrived at the public hospital severely ill and died. Now tests results are back and confirms covid19. The initial response team was without protective gear.

What a mess.



SvennoJ said:
Pyro as Bill said:

Not to tempt fate but it looks like the theory in Downing Street might be the right approach.

S. Korea and the UK have done the most testing relative to the outbreak size. The UK is currently increasing from 1000/day to 10000/day. Theory goes that if you plough money into testing instead of pointlessly testing temperature at airports then you'll have the most accurate numbers whereas without accurate test numbers, you'll be further along the curve than you realise.

We haven't done anything major yet except close the odd school. We kept flights going until the airlines stopped them. If you look at the S Korea curve and take into account that some woman from a crazy sect infected over 1000 people alone then their curve would be similar to the UK's and would also be getting quickly overtaken by countries with possibly underreported cases like they are doing now by Iran, Italy and the US.

Looks like all the schools could close soon

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-uk-set-to-move-to-delay-phase-schools-could-close-and-major-events-cancelled-11955695

Coronavirus: PM set to escalate UK's response in a matter of hours

Boris Johnson is set to escalate the UK's coronavirus response to the next phase - meaning schools could be forced to close, major sporting events cancelled and people made to work from home.

Their plan doesn't mean everything stays open, it was just considered to be a better approach. I wasn't a fan and wanted full on authoritarian policies instead but I have to admit that we appear to have fared better than I thought given that we were tracking alongside France and Germany as expected in the early stages

Bandorr said:
So trump is banning all travel FROM Europe for 30 days. UK excluded.
So you can go to Europe, and you can come from UK.

Kinda like someone telling you to not use the front door - but the side door is ok.

This a deal worked out with Boris? Or done to punish him?

Does Trump know the UK still hasn't banned flights from Wuhan, Iran, Italy or anywhere else?



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!