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SvennoJ on 11 March 2020
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John2290 said:
Amnesia said:

It's likely to be between thst 1% and 3.4%.

It is actually not at all that, based on 72000 closed cases, which is a fucking huge sample to have stable statistics. 1 to 3,4% is an utopia which has no serious explanation, just an anti panic number. 6,06% is what reality has shown after 2 months, having 500.000 or 72.000 cases won't change a lot this result, it is actually getting to be worse now that young asian population are almost done with it. We had a bottom value at 5,64% on March 7th, and now it is increasing every days.

That's not how it works or at least will work out with the current stats. There is a slight possibility it'll be above 3.4 as the window widens between the sick and the dead but it's more likely to fall under it when all is said and done, unless the worst happens and people are sent away from overloaded hospitals to fight it out at home or it has a second phase (I think enough time has passed to rule that out if China is being honest, hopefully) or it mutates sooner than this strain can be dealth with and perhaps starts attacking younger people more acutely but that is why there is and will be hard quaratines when the time is right. 3.4 percent is bad enough, it's 120+ million people if 50% get infected and 200-400 million ICU patients depending on which statistic is true of critical patients. That right there is system crushing, it doesn't even have to be over 1% to be a disaster or at least it doesn't matter in the scheme of things, so you worrying about 3% more means fuck all at the end of the day, It's already the situation that in that is pictured in your head at 3.4%, a disaster.

I'm curius though, where did you get this 6.06% statistic and is their anyone having conversation about it? You've peaked my interest. Where can I find this, a google search showed nothing but my countries health service advice. 

It's from the tracking site
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#case-outcome

It's official now

WHO press briefing:

"PANDEMIC"

But not the time for countries to move to mitigation
Must still try to suppress transmission and continue with containment efforts



Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases:

"Things will get worse." How much worse it will get depends on two things, he said: containing the influx of infected people coming from other countries and containing local outbreaks within the U.S.

When pressed by lawmakers for an estimate of eventual fatalities in the U.S., Fauci said it will be “totally dependent upon how we respond to it.”

“I can’t give you a number,” he said. “I can’t give you a realistic number until we put into the factor of how we respond. If we’re complacent and don’t do really aggressive containment and mitigation, the number could go way up and be involved in many, many millions.”

[source]