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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

JRPGfan said:
Farsala said:

Japan now surpassing European countries in terms of vaccination percentage, and this is without anyone below 18 getting vaccinated. I think the rate will slow significantly soon, but they should open up the vaccines for under 18 soon.

Japan is at 56% fully vaccinated (both shots) (68% with atleast 1 shot).

Even someone like France (which isnt doing great, compaired to most european countries) is at ~64% fully, and ~74% with atleast 1 shot.

Portugal is at 88%, spain ~81%,.... Denmark ~76%.


Source: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Yes Europe is a continent with many countries. Surpassed Germany recently for example, already surpassed eastern European countries. Will pass France and UK soon.



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Farsala said:
JRPGfan said:

Japan is at 56% fully vaccinated (both shots) (68% with atleast 1 shot).

Even someone like France (which isnt doing great, compaired to most european countries) is at ~64% fully, and ~74% with atleast 1 shot.

Portugal is at 88%, spain ~81%,.... Denmark ~76%.


Source: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Yes Europe is a continent with many countries. Surpassed Germany recently for example, already surpassed eastern European countries. Will pass France and UK soon.

Well no not yet. Representative surveys showed that our official numbers are undertracked by a few millions because most of the J&J shots were only registered as a second shot but not as the first shot. Another possible reason was that a lot of company physicians have not yet reported the shots to local health authorities.

The survey showed that the numbers for getting both shots were correct across the board but that the number for one shot was off by up to 20% (depending on the time the survey was taken) in the age group of 18-59.

For example in one survey 75% of people in the age group of 18-59 claimed they got the first shot. That was in mid July. Official numbers only showed 59% for that group at the time. 2 months later official numbers for that age group are only at 69%. The discrepancy is still there.

Hard to say what the real numbers are. The maximum shouldn't be higher than 6 percentage points compared to official numbers (73.6% vs. 67.6%). That's total numbers, not exclusively that specific age group. Even with more moderate estimates, 70% and more is likely.



Weekly update. Cases are slowly trending down, world fully vaccinated percentage is now up to 32.38%

In total 3.49 million more cases were reported last week (down from 3.77 million) to a total of 231,865,186
Also another 58,204 more deaths were reported (down from 62,522) to a total of 4,750,515

New cases went down in the USA, creeping up again in Europe. Deaths are also still creeping up.

The continents

Asia reported 1.20 million new cases (down from 1.36 million) and 17,148 more deaths (down from 21,388)
North America reported 1.08 million new cases (down from 1.28 million) and 20,287 more deaths (slightly up from 19,866)
Europe reported 831K new cases (slightly up from 811K) and 12,245 more deaths (slightly up from 11,643)
South America reported 275K new cases (up from 183K) and 5,494 more deaths (slightly down from 6,080)
Africa reported 86.6K new cases (down from 123K) and 2,858 more deaths (down from 3,383)
Oceania reported 16.4K new cases (16.2K last week) and 172 deaths (162 last week)

Corners of the world



USA reported 870K new cases (down from 1.06 million) and 14,579 more deaths (up from 13,697)
Brazil reported 225K new cases (up from 128K) and 3,954 more deaths (slightly up from 3,821)
India reported 207K new cases (slightly down from 215K) and 2,127 more deaths (slightly down from 2,213)
Iran reported 113K new cases (down from 137K) and 2,356 more deaths (down from 3,056)
Canada reported 29.6K new cases (slightly down from 31.1K) and 250 deaths (200 last week)
Japan reported 24.4K new cases (down from 49.2K) and 345 deaths (427 last week)
South Africa reported 17.3K new cases (down from 28.1K) and 1,015 more deaths (down from 1,344)
South Korea reported 13.2K new cases (slightly up from 12.6K) and 45 deaths (41 last week)
Australia reported 11.7K new cases (slightly down from 12.3K) and 67 deaths (65 last week)

Europe in detail

The Ukraine is still shooting up, UK creeping back up again.

2020 totals: 84,355,259 reported cases, 1,834,484 reported deaths
2021 totals: 147,509,927 reported cases, 2,916,031 reported deaths (so far)



It looks like the 4th wave in Germany is over. Numbers have been declining for two weeks now. Looking pretty good. Wasn't even half as bad as the 2nd and 3rd wave in terms of infections and when we're looking at deaths it was even less severe.



Barozi said:

Farsala said:

The survey showed that the numbers for getting both shots were correct across the board but that the number for one shot was off by up to 20% (depending on the time the survey was taken) in the age group of 18-59.

For example in one survey 75% of people in the age group of 18-59 claimed they got the first shot. That was in mid July. Official numbers only showed 59% for that group at the time. 2 months later official numbers for that age group are only at 69%. The discrepancy is still there.

Hard to say what the real numbers are. The maximum shouldn't be higher than 6 percentage points compared to official numbers (73.6% vs. 67.6%). That's total numbers, not exclusively that specific age group. Even with more moderate estimates, 70% and more is likely.

Or it could be just social desirability bias in the sample. We've seen that in surveys elsewhere such as NYC.

That feels far more likely than a two-month-long delay on vaccination status, IMO.



 

 

 

 

 

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haxxiy said:
Barozi said:

The survey showed that the numbers for getting both shots were correct across the board but that the number for one shot was off by up to 20% (depending on the time the survey was taken) in the age group of 18-59.

For example in one survey 75% of people in the age group of 18-59 claimed they got the first shot. That was in mid July. Official numbers only showed 59% for that group at the time. 2 months later official numbers for that age group are only at 69%. The discrepancy is still there.

Hard to say what the real numbers are. The maximum shouldn't be higher than 6 percentage points compared to official numbers (73.6% vs. 67.6%). That's total numbers, not exclusively that specific age group. Even with more moderate estimates, 70% and more is likely.

Or it could be just social desirability bias in the sample. We've seen that in surveys elsewhere such as NYC.

That feels far more likely than a two-month-long delay on vaccination status, IMO.

Nope. The official numbers have already proven themselves that they are incorrect when it comes to first shots. The amount of seconds shots in the age group of 18-59 was not too long ago higher than the amount of first shots in the same age group. That is of course non-sense and proves that first shots are undertracked by several percent.

Also there's no reason to believe that the surveys are false. Why should people in the age group 18-59 lie about getting the first shot but say the truth about the second shot? And why aren't the people in the age group 60+ lying at all? Did I mention that the surveys were done anonymously? Even less reason to lie.

Besides, the delay can only be attributed to company phisicians. The data transmitted about J&J shots won't be changed, so there will always be a discrepancy.



Barozi said:
haxxiy said:

Nope. The official numbers have already proven themselves that they are incorrect when it comes to first shots. The amount of seconds shots in the age group of 18-59 was not too long ago higher than the amount of first shots in the same age group. That is of course non-sense and proves that first shots are undertracked by several percent.

Also there's no reason to believe that the surveys are false. Why should people in the age group 18-59 lie about getting the first shot but say the truth about the second shot? And why aren't the people in the age group 60+ lying at all? Did I mention that the surveys were done anonymously? Even less reason to lie.

Besides, the delay can only be attributed to company phisicians. The data transmitted about J&J shots won't be changed, so there will always be a discrepancy.

I'm not saying you are wrong, just that this kind of discrepancy is common when it comes to data analysis. Not only you might be stuck with a flawed sample due to design plan or methodology but survey responders can be knowingly and unknowingly dishonest, even in anonymous surveys. In research, that's a fact of life. An example: Gallup poll claimed 69% of US adults had gotten one dose by early September, but government data claimed over 75% around that time, reporting delays and all. I wouldn't take that to mean the US is overtracking vaccines, just that polls are polls.

Looking at individual data from the federal states and comparing it to neighboring countries, from an outsider's perspective, I don't see any reason to believe in a discrepancy. But maybe you've heard differently from the health minister or something, so I'll give the benefit of doubt *shrugs*



 

 

 

 

 

I don't whether I should feel disgusted or grateful.... Capitalism at work.

Pfizer said in July it expects revenue from its COVID-19 vaccine to reach $33.5 billion this year, an estimate that could change depending on the impact of boosters or the possible expansion of shots to elementary school children. That would be more than five times the $5.8 billion racked up last year by the world's most lucrative vaccine -- Pfizer's Prevnar13, which protects against pneumococcal disease. It also would dwarf the $19.8 billion brought in last year by AbbVie's rheumatoid arthritis treatment Humira, widely regarded as the world's top-selling drug.

This bodes well for future vaccine development, noted Erik Gordon, a business professor at the University of Michigan. Vaccines normally are nowhere near as profitable as treatments, Gordon said. But the success of the COVID-19 shots could draw more drugmakers and venture capitalists into the field. "The vaccine business is more attractive, which, for those of us who are going to need vaccines, is good," Gordon said.


https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccine-boosters-could-mean-billions-for-drugmakers-1.5600439

No one knows yet how many people will get the extra shots. But Morningstar analyst Karen Andersen expects boosters alone to bring in about $26 billion in global sales next year for Pfizer and BioNTech and around $14 billion for Moderna if they are endorsed for nearly all Americans.

While the CDC says: Walensky acknowledged that even with more Americans becoming eligible for Pfizer boosters, the country must ramp up initial vaccination numbers for the pandemic to subside. "I want to be clear: We will not boost our way out of this pandemic," she said Friday.

Further on

Those companies also may gain business from people who got other vaccines initially. In Britain, which plans to offer boosters to everyone over 50 and other vulnerable people, an expert panel has recommended that Pfizer's shot be the primary choice, with Moderna as the alternative.

Andersen expects Moderna, which has no other products on the market, to generate a roughly $13 billion profit next year from all COVID-19 vaccine sales if boosters are broadly authorized.

For Pfizer and Moderna, the boosters could be more profitable than the original doses because they won't come with the research and development costs the companies incurred to get the vaccines on the market in the first place.

WBB Securities CEO Steve Brozak said the booster shots will represent "almost pure profit" compared with the initial doses.



Maybe opt for J&L and AstaZeneca when you have the choice

J&J and Europe's AstraZeneca have said they don't intend to profit from their COVID-19 vaccines during the pandemic.




SvennoJ said:

I don't whether I should feel disgusted or grateful.... Capitalism at work.

Pfizer said in July it expects revenue from its COVID-19 vaccine to reach $33.5 billion this year, an estimate that could change depending on the impact of boosters or the possible expansion of shots to elementary school children. That would be more than five times the $5.8 billion racked up last year by the world's most lucrative vaccine -- Pfizer's Prevnar13, which protects against pneumococcal disease. It also would dwarf the $19.8 billion brought in last year by AbbVie's rheumatoid arthritis treatment Humira, widely regarded as the world's top-selling drug.

This bodes well for future vaccine development, noted Erik Gordon, a business professor at the University of Michigan. Vaccines normally are nowhere near as profitable as treatments, Gordon said. But the success of the COVID-19 shots could draw more drugmakers and venture capitalists into the field. "The vaccine business is more attractive, which, for those of us who are going to need vaccines, is good," Gordon said.


https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccine-boosters-could-mean-billions-for-drugmakers-1.5600439

No one knows yet how many people will get the extra shots. But Morningstar analyst Karen Andersen expects boosters alone to bring in about $26 billion in global sales next year for Pfizer and BioNTech and around $14 billion for Moderna if they are endorsed for nearly all Americans.

While the CDC says: Walensky acknowledged that even with more Americans becoming eligible for Pfizer boosters, the country must ramp up initial vaccination numbers for the pandemic to subside. "I want to be clear: We will not boost our way out of this pandemic," she said Friday.

Further on

Those companies also may gain business from people who got other vaccines initially. In Britain, which plans to offer boosters to everyone over 50 and other vulnerable people, an expert panel has recommended that Pfizer's shot be the primary choice, with Moderna as the alternative.

Andersen expects Moderna, which has no other products on the market, to generate a roughly $13 billion profit next year from all COVID-19 vaccine sales if boosters are broadly authorized.

For Pfizer and Moderna, the boosters could be more profitable than the original doses because they won't come with the research and development costs the companies incurred to get the vaccines on the market in the first place.

WBB Securities CEO Steve Brozak said the booster shots will represent "almost pure profit" compared with the initial doses.



Maybe opt for J&L and AstaZeneca when you have the choice

J&J and Europe's AstraZeneca have said they don't intend to profit from their COVID-19 vaccines during the pandemic.


I would say grateful.

The amount of money saved by the vaccine is certainly in vast vast vast excess of 33.5billion dollars. There was something that was needed, it was produced, and the people who produced it profited. I don't find anything inherently objectionable about that. Just hope that the people who did the actual work got a fat slice of dough.



JWeinCom said:

I would say grateful.

The amount of money saved by the vaccine is certainly in vast vast vast excess of 33.5billion dollars. There was something that was needed, it was produced, and the people who produced it profited. I don't find anything inherently objectionable about that. Just hope that the people who did the actual work got a fat slice of dough.

Yep, grateful for that part. Yet at the same time disgusted when I look at the vaccination numbers in the third world. Forecasting billions of profits from booster shots while for example Haiti sits at 0.16% vaccinated.

It feels like a failure of the WHO that they can't coordinate a vaccine rollout and have to rely on capitalism to come up with a solution. I doubt the people who did the actual work (front line healthcare workers) get to see anything of that dough...

Just feels wrong reading about billions of dollars of pure profit while the pandemic is far from over. It's just another cash cow now.