Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[Barozi]

haxxiy said:

Barozi said:

The survey showed that the numbers for getting both shots were correct across the board but that the number for one shot was off by up to 20% (depending on the time the survey was taken) in the age group of 18-59.

For example in one survey 75% of people in the age group of 18-59 claimed they got the first shot. That was in mid July. Official numbers only showed 59% for that group at the time. 2 months later official numbers for that age group are only at 69%. The discrepancy is still there.

Hard to say what the real numbers are. The maximum shouldn't be higher than 6 percentage points compared to official numbers (73.6% vs. 67.6%). That's total numbers, not exclusively that specific age group. Even with more moderate estimates, 70% and more is likely.

Or it could be just social desirability bias in the sample. We've seen that in surveys elsewhere such as NYC.

That feels far more likely than a two-month-long delay on vaccination status, IMO.

Nope. The official numbers have already proven themselves that they are incorrect when it comes to first shots. The amount of seconds shots in the age group of 18-59 was not too long ago higher than the amount of first shots in the same age group. That is of course non-sense and proves that first shots are undertracked by several percent.

Also there's no reason to believe that the surveys are false. Why should people in the age group 18-59 lie about getting the first shot but say the truth about the second shot? And why aren't the people in the age group 60+ lying at all? Did I mention that the surveys were done anonymously? Even less reason to lie.

Besides, the delay can only be attributed to company phisicians. The data transmitted about J&J shots won't be changed, so there will always be a discrepancy.