I got my second dose booked. It turned out to be a bug in the official booking site, kept referring me to the first dose appointment forms while selecting second dose. Googling it directly got me to the right form. How did we ever survive the millennium bug! Next Tuesday, 7.5 weeks after the first dose, perfect.

Weekly Update. Spain and the Netherlands are showing explosive growth, the delta variant?

In total 2.98 million new cases were reported last week (up from 2.67 million) to a total of 186,816,539
Also another 55,172 deaths were reported (55,095 last week) to a total of 4,034,825

USA has an independence day dip but still seems to be climbing as well as Europe. Deaths are stable or going down.

The continents

Asia reported 1.14 million new cases (up from 994K) and 18,674 more deaths (up from 16,516)
South America reported 697K new cases (up from 801K) and 19,992 more deaths (down from 22,708)
Europe reported 603K new cases (up from 434K) and 6,618 more deaths (down from 7,233)
Africa reported 280K new cases (up from 242K) and 6,061 more deaths (up from 4,267)
North America reported 256K new cases (up from 199K) and 3,795 more deaths (down from 4,360)
Oceania reported 4,766 new cases (up from 2,506) and 32 deaths (11 last week)

Corners of the world

Brazil reported 333K new cases (down from 365K) and 9,709 more deaths (down from 10,796)
India reported 294K new cases (down from 319K) and 6,105 more deaths (down from 6,544)
South Africa reported 138K new cases (up from 124K) and 2,541 more deaths (up from 1,711)
USA reported 131K new cases (up from 97.5K) and 1,547 more deaths (down from 2,009)
Iran reported 111K new cases (up from 81.7K) and 1,027 more deaths (928 last week)
Japan reported 12.3K new cases (up from 10.6K) and 115 deaths (204 last week)
South Korea reported 6,795 new cases (up from 4,760) and 12 deaths (15 last week)
Canada reported 3,647 new cases (down from 4,091) and 81 deaths (141 last week)
Australia reported 266 new cases (263 last week) no deaths

Europe in detail

It certainly looks like a more infectious variant is spreading through Europe.

yeah it's slowing going up here as well.

We hit the lowest point a few days ago with a 7 day incidence rate of 4.8. We're up to 5.8 now.

Neil Fergusson is expecting 150,000 - 200,000 cases a day peak in the UK, but reasonably optimistic it won't strain the healthcare system. That seems rather... high. I doubt there would even be enough people taking tests even if it gets to these numbers TBH.

On the other hand, there have been huge RSV outbreaks in the US, Australia, NZ, etc. suggesting there's some truth to the "immunity debt" theory. Apparently, there could be more children hospitalized with RSV in New Zealand than people hospitalized with Covid-19 in Scotland right now (extrapolating data from Wellington, based on a recent Guardian article). So I'd expect hospital wings to see a lot of children with RSV, perhaps even more than people with Covid-19, in the upcoming months in Europe.

Yep they're predicting it will go upto 100,000-150,000 cases pr day sometime without a month or two (in the UK).
While basically dropping all measures to prevent rise.

The thing is they have so many vaccinated that it wont have a huge impact on deaths.
However, this will still stretch hospitals to capcacity, and mean alot more people with long covid, and lasting damage.
(means they stop treatment of cancer patience and others, as hospitals are again overrun with covid sick)

Its a "slight" gamble.... but I think the idea is its the summer, people are getting their Vitamin D, and nows a good time to get herd immunity.
Only ones not really vaccinated are the most younger of the population.

Time will tell if this works out in their favor.

------------

the irony is they have a track and trace app, that warns people when to go into isolation, if you have been around others that could give it too you.
However you cant have like 60% of the population (that use the app) all go into isolation, so their basically disableing the app.

Again, this supports the idea, of just letting it run its course, through society.

*edit:
Saw  you post after posting mine, from looking at last page.

Its gonna strain their healthcare system.
It wont case massive deaths, but yes, it'll lead to more deaths too.

They wont do another lockdown, or stop the easeing of preventative measures though.
Their sick of the mask, and want a return to "normal".

Boris wants, to try for herd immunity (they all but admitted this), with the delta variant, as they have alot of people vaccinated, so they wont have as many get seriously ill or die to it.

Theres been rumors of makeing people pay to get tested.
As a means of getting less "new daily cases" (less people will go get tested if it costs them).

It sounds, risky to me.
But then again I think Boris and his crew are nuts, brexit is proof enough of that.

That sure sounds like a big risk. Doesn't the efficacy rate mean that 10% to 15% will still die even though fully vaccinated?
Plus so many active cases, have we not learned anything from new strains appearing.

Oh well, I'll continue with business as usual (limiting exposure and using masks) as we just opened up early as well because the delta variant is gaining traction. It doesn't make sense to me either, nor the news reporters, but I guess our premier follows Boris' model. Border restrictions are easing up as well, time to party...

Mmm, we'll see. If we assume a 1.6% admission rate 10 days after confirmed cases, as it is the case for the UK right now, we'd be seeing about ~ 2,400 daily admissions following 150,000 daily cases, similar to the September - October wave. But hospitals in England see about 16,000 admissions a day, on average. Guess it'll depend on how long are these Covid stays for the younger / unvaccinated / occasional breakthrough case.

Edit - didn't take into account backlog surgeries. The RSV epidemic will play a part too. So yeah, maybe this new Covid patient surge isn't coming at the best of times.

Well, it's a 96% risk reduction in hospitalization after two doses, according to PHE, and I'd guess it's about the same for preventing deaths. In practice, it could be a little higher since vaccines are prone to be less effective exactly in the age groups/immunosuppressed which are more at risk, but you get the gist.

Thing is... not every adult is willing to be vaccinated, even among the most at-risk groups. It'll depend on how many of these the virus can find.

Here they're already talking about the need for booster shots, 6 months after the 2 doses

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/canada-says-covid-19-booster-shots-may-be-needed-closely-monitoring-variants-1.5503599
"Emerging data to date shows good immunity in most people out to 9 months after receiving 2 vaccine doses," Canada's public health agency said in a statement.

No clue what 'good immunity' means, or where they get the data that one would be needed. Vaccines aren't even out 9 months yet afaik. Maybe they're not needed, maybe just more confusion.

Anyway the good news is
The latest data show that over 78.5 per cent of people aged 12 years or older have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine, and 46 per cent are fully vaccinated across Canada.
We're getting there, although it's slowing down now. Next the kids I guess.

They have data from the people who took part in the vaccine trials, probably. Same thing with AZ and Janssen, who recently were able to measure antibody titers ~ 10 months from vaccination and were rather satisfied with the results.

A booster could be a possibility for the immunosuppressed or the very elderly, who knows. But recently Pfizer is peddling a third dose and one distinctly gets the feeling it's not due to the fear of waning immunity - it's the fear of waning bottom lines.

Australia suffers it's first covid-19 death of 2021

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australia-reports-first-2021-covid-19-death-highest-case-number-2021-07-11/

The virus recently broke out in Sydney with very poor handling by the state government leading to a surge in cases. I'm glad I live in Victoria right now.