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haxxiy on 10 July 2021
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JRPGfan said:
haxxiy said:

Its gonna strain their healthcare system.
It wont case massive deaths, but yes, it'll lead to more deaths too.

They wont do another lockdown, or stop the easeing of preventative measures though.
Their sick of the mask, and want a return to "normal".

Boris wants, to try for herd immunity (they all but admitted this), with the delta variant, as they have alot of people vaccinated, so they wont have as many get seriously ill or die to it.

Theres been rumors of makeing people pay to get tested.
As a means of getting less "new daily cases" (less people will go get tested if it costs them).

It sounds, risky to me.
But then again I think Boris and his crew are nuts, brexit is proof enough of that.

Mmm, we'll see. If we assume a 1.6% admission rate 10 days after confirmed cases, as it is the case for the UK right now, we'd be seeing about ~ 2,400 daily admissions following 150,000 daily cases, similar to the September - October wave. But hospitals in England see about 16,000 admissions a day, on average. Guess it'll depend on how long are these Covid stays for the younger / unvaccinated / occasional breakthrough case.

Edit - didn't take into account backlog surgeries. The RSV epidemic will play a part too. So yeah, maybe this new Covid patient surge isn't coming at the best of times.

SvennoJ said:

That sure sounds like a big risk. Doesn't the efficacy rate mean that 10% to 15% will still die even though fully vaccinated?
Plus so many active cases, have we not learned anything from new strains appearing.

Oh well, I'll continue with business as usual (limiting exposure and using masks) as we just opened up early as well because the delta variant is gaining traction. It doesn't make sense to me either, nor the news reporters, but I guess our premier follows Boris' model. Border restrictions are easing up as well, time to party...

Well, it's a 96% risk reduction in hospitalization after two doses, according to PHE, and I'd guess it's about the same for preventing deaths. In practice, it could be a little higher since vaccines are prone to be less effective exactly in the age groups/immunosuppressed which are more at risk, but you get the gist.

Thing is... not every adult is willing to be vaccinated, even among the most at-risk groups. It'll depend on how many of these the virus can find.

Last edited by haxxiy - on 10 July 2021