snyps said:
I think it’s important to discuss the opposing view. I assume that’s allowed? |
The opposing view to basic math?
...
Torillian said:
Going to use the US for these stats because I know where to find the necessary info. standard flu season kills 20-60k. In the timeframe from March 2020 to March 2021, coronavirus killed 540,000. So we're talking closer to 10-20x the death toll of a standard flu season. 0.17% of the US population has already been killed by coronavirus so the idea that the worst corona could do is kill 0.05% of the population seems a bit like an underestimate. |
Going with the high estimate.. Is one fifth of 1% (mostly elderly and poor health) worth it? Do you know what we’ve lost?
How many trillions in your government debt? I’m guessing at least 5 trillion in mine.. an incomprehensible number of that size seems unimportant and ignorable?
How about those unemployed for almost a year? This blog post noted that, from February to April:
What about the children who did not receive an education? I know from first hand experience, most families are unable to get their students to successfully adapt to distance learning. They’re functionally a year behind but not held back.
Then there’s the vaccines. As long as it’s not forced, do what ever your told. It’s your body. But I see how the supporters of the shutdown act. You want everyone to think and do as you think and do. You want it forced on peoples’ bodies don’t you?
for a fifth of 1% (mostly old with poor health)
snyps said:
Going with the high estimate.. Is one fifth of 1% (mostly elderly and poor health) worth it? Do you know what we’ve lost? How many trillions in your government debt? I’m guessing at least 5 trillion in mine.. an incomprehensible number of that size seems unimportant and ignorable? How about those unemployed for almost a year? This blog post noted that, from February to April:
What about the children who did not receive an education? I know from first hand experience, most families are unable to get their students to successfully adapt to distance learning. They’re functionally a year behind but not held back. Then there’s the vaccines. As long as it’s not forced, do what ever your told. It’s your body. But I see how the supporters of the shutdown act. You want everyone to think and do as you think and do. You want it forced on peoples’ bodies don’t you? for a fifth of 1% (mostly old with poor health) |
Why do you think this virus is still spreading? What should be done to stop the virus?
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snyps said:
Going with the high estimate.. Is one fifth of 1% (mostly elderly and poor health) worth it? Do you know what we’ve lost? How many trillions in your government debt? I’m guessing at least 5 trillion in mine.. an incomprehensible number of that size seems unimportant and ignorable? How about those unemployed for almost a year? This blog post noted that, from February to April:
What about the children who did not receive an education? I know from first hand experience, most families are unable to get their students to successfully adapt to distance learning. They’re functionally a year behind but not held back. Then there’s the vaccines. As long as it’s not forced, do what ever your told. It’s your body. But I see how the supporters of the shutdown act. You want everyone to think and do as you think and do. You want it forced on peoples’ bodies don’t you? for a fifth of 1% (mostly old with poor health) |
This is a false dilemma because we weren't choosing between 0.2% dead or millions of jobs lost, we already got both of those. What we would have to argue about are the relative impacts of different policies and the possible effects on the deaths or economy compared to our current situation. There is no magic switch to make a pandemic not affect the economy even if we had done absolutely nothing (not a far stretch for the US honestly considering how little we did) there are still those who don't really want to go out to Fuddruckers during a pandemic. In which case I guess I would put up South Korea as a shining example that you can actually decrease both of these detrimental effects of the virus if you take it seriously enough.
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Hiku said:
First of all, the claim that it's not going to kill you "unless you're 75+ with a weak immune system" is false. SARS-CoV-2–Associated Deaths Among Persons Aged 21 Years — United States, February 12–July 31, 2020 | MMWR (cdc.gov) And aside from the fact that your 0.05% figure is already way off the mark, your post neglects the law of large numbers, and it assumes that one of two things happen: you die or you're 100% fine. And keep in mind that the case numbers and deaths is with many of us taking precautions to keep the weakest in our society safe. |
I agree with the sentiment, but you are quoting older data from confirmed cases back in Wuhan I believe. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html">Data published by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in late April reported a symptomatic case hospitalization ratio of 3.4% overall, varying from 1.7% in 0-49-year-olds and 4.5% in 50-64-year-olds to 7.4% in those 65 and over. Analysis of cases in France and the Diamond Princess ship estimated a 2.9% hospitalization rate, adjusted by cohort age, with 18.1% resulting in deaths (0.5%), which is somewhat similar to the CDC estimate (0.6%-ish). A UK study reported a lower 0.3% infection fatality rate during winter but that pertains only to deaths in the first 28 days of infection, which is how the UK counts them.
As for the precise numbers of long Covid cases and other sequelae, we'll wait and see. None of the studies I've seen so far even had a control group, they were just doing meta-analysis of existing data or suffering from other sampling bias (studying only people who seek medical attention again, for instance). You can't have a statistically proven relationship between two phenomena without testing the null hypothesis.
TLDR, I understand people have a strong impulse to pay attention to danger and thus is easier to argue that way against denialists, but one can take these things rationally and seriously without exaggerating them.
Personally, I think SARS-CoV-2 is a trickster who punches way above its death rate but there are understandable reasons for that (such as an aging population in developed countries and the massive, prolonged burden to healthcare services that is treating pneumonia in a hospital context. Also, people are less likely in the 21st century to blindly accept massive deaths like it used to happen from tuberculosis, etc).
| haxxiy said: I agree with the sentiment, but you are quoting older data from confirmed cases back in Wuhan I believe. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html">Data published by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in late April reported a symptomatic case hospitalization ratio of 3.4% overall, varying from 1.7% in 0-49-year-olds and 4.5% in 50-64-year-olds to 7.4% in those 65 and over. Analysis of cases in France and the Diamond Princess ship estimated a 2.9% hospitalization rate, adjusted by cohort age, with 18.1% resulting in deaths (0.5%), which is somewhat similar to the CDC estimate (0.6%-ish). A UK study reported a lower 0.3% infection fatality rate during winter but that pertains only to deaths in the first 28 days of infection, which is how the UK counts them. As for the precise numbers of long Covid cases and other sequelae, we'll wait and see. None of the studies I've seen so far even had a control group, they were just doing meta-analysis of existing data or suffering from other sampling bias (studying only people who seek medical attention again, for instance). You can't have a statistically proven relationship between two phenomena without testing the null hypothesis. TLDR, I understand people have a strong impulse to pay attention to danger and thus is easier to argue that way against denialists, but one can take these things rationally and seriously without exaggerating them. Personally, I think SARS-CoV-2 is a trickster who punches way above its death rate but there are understandable reasons for that (such as an aging population in developed countries and the massive, prolonged burden to healthcare services that is treating pneumonia in a hospital context. Also, people are less likely in the 21st century to blindly accept massive deaths like it used to happen from tuberculosis, etc). |
The problem is more that the compromises, trying to keep as much as possible open, is only prolonging the pandemic and increasing the economic and social damage. There is a clear path to returning to mostly normal, but it only works if you're an island or if everyone works together. Well the latter one obviously failed.
The long term damage is not just from "long Covid", all the other problems keep mounting up and many other diseases are not getting the attention they need atm. Plus the sustained elevated stress level isn't helping either.
As for death rates, very crudely, US stands at 1.8% (deaths/cases), India at 1.2%. Of course that's just detected cases and confirmed deaths by Covid. Worldwide is sitting at 2.1%. Even when for every detected case, 10 go undetected, you're still looking at potentially over 10 million more deaths worldwide. Vaccines are helping fight Covid now, the worst should soon be behind. Atm records are still being broken and India looks especially concerning. 'Breeding' more effective versions of the virus was the worst thing we could do.
Hindsight is 20/20 of course. We started with models to achieve herd immunity, then mitigation to keep hospitals from overloading, but the best strategy was total suppression. The "Hammer and the dance" strategy has come back to bite us in the ass. It looked nice in models, but they didn't factor in the general public's attention span :/
The current 6 week lockdown we're having now with the most strict measures yet would not have been needed if we had waited a few weeks longer with re-openings last summer and had implemented tighter border regulations.
Good news, I should be able to book an appointment tomorrow for the Astrazeneca vaccine. The minimum age will be lowered to 40 in Ontario on the 20th. My wife doesn't know yet what to do (at high risk for pretty much all the possible side effects). I'll get it first, see how it goes.
She's finally getting to talk to a doctor on the 27th with the results of all the long overdue tests since her medication got switched last year. One of the side effects of this drawn out Covid stuff, she now has an enlarged aorta from having her blood pressure out of control for over half a year.
Her friend survived the surgery, most of her left lung had to be removed after diagnosing cancer half a year late due to the pandemic. She's not doing too well though, the surgery took a lot longer than expected and she's now coping with a very slow recovery. Covid causes far more damage than just to the people catching it.
Anyway, at least I'll be able to get the vaccine soon, lowering the chance further that I can catch it while doing groceries and inadvertently kill my wife :/
They changed the age limit today and I signed up for 2 wait lists. I thought it would be coordinated but nope, sign up by pharmacy. I got a confirmation saying it can take weeks to months before getting an invitation to book an appointment. At least people are not shying away from the vaccines!
Weekly Update. Most places are are leveling off or declining except for India. India has just over 2 million new cases last week and is now the driving force for the worldwide growth in cases.
In total 5.72 million new cases were reported last week (up from 5.22 million) to a total of 146,221,629
Also another 87,404 deaths were reported last week (up from 83,836) to a total of 3,098,905
Europe has peaked again, USA also going down again
The continents
Asia reported 3.11million new cases (up from 2.35 million) and 25,272 more deaths (up from 17,075)
Europe reported 1.10 million new cases (down from 1.24 million) and 23,130 more deaths (down from 24,761)
South America reported 867K new cases (down from 909K) and 27,740 more deaths (down from 28,662)
North America reported 555K new cases (down from 633K) and 8,999 more deaths (down from 11,143)
Africa reported 79.4K new cases (79.7K last week) and 2,245 more deaths (2,180 last week)
Oceania reported 1,208 new cases (down from 1,674) and 18 deaths (15 last week)
Corners of the world
India reported 2.08 million new cases (up from 1.32 million) and 13,876 more deaths (up from 7,206)
USA reported 430K new cases (down from 503K) and 5,133 more deaths (5,102 last week)
Brazil reported 404K new cases (down from 459K) and 17,599 more deaths (down from 20,090)
Iran reported 164.7K new cases (164.7K last week) and 2,738 more deaths (up from 1,969)
Canada reported 58.5K new cases (slightly down from 60.8K) and 342 deaths (290 last week)
Japan reported 31.1K new cases (up from 24,5K) and 262 deaths (204 last week)
South Africa reported 8,630 new cases (8,113 last week) and 403 deaths (437 last week)
South Korea reported 4,669 new cases (4,520 last week) and 21 deaths (26 last week)
Australia reported 143 new cases (95 last week) no deaths
Europe in detail
The Netherlands is still seeing some growth, the rest is either level or declining
India is out of control and is now dealing with an oxygen shortage as well. Growth has been consistent at an Rt of about 1.17, doubling every 11 days. India has already smashed the highest daily case count the USA had at its worst (281K Jan 07) and now just over half of the worst daily death count in the USA (4491 Jan 12) 35% of new cases were from India this week.
| SvennoJ said: Good news, I should be able to book an appointment tomorrow for the Astrazeneca vaccine. The minimum age will be lowered to 40 in Ontario on the 20th. |
Did it work out?
We got our first Biontech-shot yesterday because we are the contact persons of my parents in need of care.
Our second appointment is in six weeks, then the whole family will be vaccinated.
| Conina said: Did it work out? We got our first Biontech-shot yesterday because we are the contact persons of my parents in need of care. Our second appointment is in six weeks, then the whole family will be vaccinated. |
I'm on the wait list at two local pharmacies, waiting for an email invitation to book an appointment. It's not all that coordinated here while hot spots (rightfully) get priority. They said it could take week to months before I can actually book an appointment :/ Second dose can take as long as 4 months here. For now there are still 5 weeks of lock down left to go anyway.
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