Looks like the US is back on a downward trajectory in terms of new cases.

It's probably because months have passed already, and the rapid tests are poor at detecting low antibody tithers (see what happened in New York, where they found out their antibody tests were useless unless applied between 2 - 4 weeks after infection, on average). The numbers were 61% in Bergamo by the end of April, and 25.6% in Lombardy by early May.

https://bergamo.corriere.it/notizie/cronaca/20_aprile_30/coronavirus-bergamo-primi-risultati-test-61percento-positivi-85e8e36c-8a6b-11ea-94d3-9879860c12b6.shtml

https://www.milanotoday.it/attualita/coronavirus/tst-sierologici-positivi.html

Does this mean these people are vulnerable again already? Well, we know celullar, rather than humoral, is the main source of immunity against coronaviruses, and these tests might not even be going for the longest lasting neutralizing antibodies (which would be igA in the respiratory cavities).

So, my country had 66,715 excess deaths in the first six months of the year compared to 2019, according to compiled, definitive data from all register offices. That's a nice fit to the 59,594 confirmed Covid-19 deaths during the same time period.

Despite a population three times larger, that's similar to the 63,000 excess deaths registered in the UK until June. Was the pandemic that late to South America compared to Europe? Maybe not. But we know that increasing age exponentially increases the severity of the disease, and Brazil is about 10 years younger, on average, than most European countries. The number of people over 65 is also similar: ~12 million in the UK and Italy, ~18 million in Brazil.

It doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility that death rates could be <0.1% in Nigeria and >1% in Japan even taking into account the differences to healthcare access, solely due to the average age of their population.

Edit: that would also suggest OC43-CoV is deadlier than SARS-CoV-2 to people without cellular immunity to it, if the 1889 pandemic was indeed the human introduction OC43-CoV, considering the average age back in 1889.

It's a bit of an unknown atm. Many testing centers are closed in Florida due to the tropical storm coming through and there was a lot of suspicious activity with the reported numbers when HHS took over reporting from the CDC.

Odd balance atm.

Reported cases in the world are on a slight decline, -3.0 % compared to last week.

Only Europe (and Australia) is really growing, +18.4 %
North America -16.7%, Asia +3.9%, South America +3.1%, Africa -19.1%.

North America is mostly the USA with questionable numbers and now less testing in bad areas due to the storm. Canada also had a 3 day weekend with less testing. For Asia, India might be hitting a testing cap or started to decline, same for Africa, led by South Africa. Both India and South Africa still have deaths going up though. South America is led by Brazil which is getting bigger and bigger variations in reported numbers.

It seems testing fatigue is getting worse, data is getting more and more variable with more gaps, delayed reporting and backwards revisions.

Anyway the top 3 all have suspect or incomplete data :/

Columbia looks to be getting out of hand.

Maybe it's time for Europe to close some places again, numbers in Spain are looking close to March

Well, it's better having a new outbreak every 3 months than being locked in a pandemic forever (like in Brazil now) 

South Korea managed to control for 3 months now, and so far no signs of a new outbreak. Italy numbers look positive too, 2 months with covid under control and I think they will pass August just fine, same for Germany. Sure, this is not realistic for countries with dimensions like Brazil or USA, but in USA New York numbers are completely under control now

Never had truly faith in Japan, the way they manage the virus didn't make at all sense for me in the past 

Australia is unfortunate though. Everything was looking promise for them, I don't know what happened, but they answered fast I'm sure they will be under control again in one or two months

Trying to keep it under controll is the right way to go.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=23vJ0CME8BI

UK has had 308k confirmed cases, and through antibody tests they estiamte around 2,800,000 cases in total (potentially).
Offically they have so far had ~46,300 deaths to covid19.

This puts its case fatality rate at ~15%, and its IFR (infections fatality rate) at 1,65%.

However factor in the total "death certificats with covid19" (~55,800 deaths) or "excess deaths for the year" (~64,000+), and end up with a IFR ~1,99% or 2,25%.

Now wtih 70% infection rate to reach herd immunity, and potentially a 2,25% IFR.
Things look grim, even if you with medicine can reduce fatality rates by like a 1/3.
(thats only if you have enough medicine, and bed spaces in the hospitals)

People should stop downplaying the virus.
On top of this, what about the millions of people that wont die, but will have permanent lunge/kidney/heart damage?

Virus needs to be kept under controll until a vaccine is out.