New study from China describing the rate of spread vs distance / duration.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/can-i-catch-covid-19-on-a-train-new-study-explains-which-seats-are-riskiest-1.5048895

Using data from Chinese health authorities and rail timetables, they were able to identify 2,334 "index patients" – passengers who started to show COVID-19 symptoms within 14 days of their trip and were diagnosed with COVID-19 – and 72,093 other passengers who sat within three rows and five seats of those index patients.

All of the trips were taken on China's G trains between mid-December and late February, as the novel coronavirus was spreading beyond Wuhan to the rest of China and the rest of the world. The G trains account for the majority of Chinese passenger rail trips and carry more passengers than all of the country's airlines combined.

According to the study, 234 of the 72,093 passengers who sat near an index patient ended up testing positive for the disease themselves. That works out to 0.32 per cent, a number the researchers call the "attack rate."

Next to patient: 3.5% attack rate
Same row: 1.5% attack rate
One or two rows ahead or behind: 1/10th of the same row (0.15% attack rate)
Third row: half again (about 0.07% attack rate)

The researchers found that the attack rate increased by 0.15 per cent per hour of travel time, and by 1.3 per cent per hour for those passengers sitting right beside the patient.

The attack rate for passengers in the same row as the patient was 1.5 per cent, or more than 10 times the rate for those sitting in rows further ahead or behind. For those sitting in the seats next to the patient, the attack rate was 3.5 per cent.


More stuff to ponder before putting kids in the same room for 6 hours with desks 1 meter apart. They think that the drop off to the row in front or behind is mostly because of head rests and chair backs restricting the air flow, thus favoring sideways travel of the virus.

Here in Chile positivity and cases have gone down in the capital and some places with good numbers have something called a transition phase in which you don't need a permit to go out of your house and you can have meetings of up to 5 people. Masks in public places are still mandatory.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9MoPER6NxPk

More data that seems to suggest that US is giveing wrong/lower reported numbers than it should.
(manipulateing data, that its giveing to the public about new daily infections)

7;19 into the video.
NYT collects data from all the states/hospitals themselves in the country, and get a differnt number, when added up, than the one the CDC reports.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/cdc-forecast-20-000-more-americans-could-die-from-covid-19-in-the-next-21-days-1.5048736

Besides the death rate going up, some stuff relevant for schools in there as well:

Meanwhile, with now several outbreaks linked back to colleges and with some schools beginning to reopen, parents and local leaders are working to determine the safest options for the academic year. Frequent screening of college students for the virus might be required in order to control outbreaks, according to a modeling study published Friday in the journal JAMA Network Open.

While some leaders have said younger students face a lower risk from the virus, they still may be able to transmit it, experts have said.

Children under the age of five, when infected with the virus, have up to 100 times more genetic material from it in their noses than older children or adults do, according to a new study published Thursday as a research letter in the journal JAMA Pediatrics.

"It says younger children up to five years old have many, many more times virus in their nasopharynx than adults do, which would mean it would be a reasonable assumption that they would be able to transmit the virus, so they're not immune," Anthony Fauci, a leading infectious disease expert, told CNN.

So those "Rotznasen" (snotty noses) are superspreaders?

Dr Birx is recommending that people living with vulnerable people should wear masks at home.

And sleep in separate air sealed rooms? If it gets in the home you're pretty much screwed unless you can partition off an entire section. Wearing masks won't do much to stop spread in a shared space for half the day.

Is that another recommendation to 'go back to normal' but wear a mask at home so your vulnerable SO will be safe?

I rather make sure it doesn't get in the house in the first place.

The new coronavirus strain found in Vietnam's Danang is more transmittable than the older one.
Old strain -- 1.8 to 2.2 people
New strain -- 5 to 6 peoplehttps://t.co/0cqW1yYMQq

— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) August 3, 2020

A bit lower than previously assumed

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/2-5-per-cent-of-italians-had-covid-19-more-in-the-north-tests-reveal-1.5049716

The sampling indicated that 1.482 million Italians nationwide had come into contact with the virus and developed an immunological response to it, six times more than Italy's reported number of confirmed cases, said Linda Laura Sabbadini, a director at the Italian National Institute of Statistics, or ISTAT.

Bergamo the epicenter: Some 24 per cent of Bergamo residents developed virus antibodies

Locatelli said the results also indicated that 27.3 per cent of the people with the virus experienced no symptoms, demonstrating the need for continued social distancing and mask requirements. He stressed that the tests were not looking at whether the antibodies provided protection against the virus going forward, just the tested individuals had come into contact with the virus.

The antibody test results also suggest that Italy's COVID-19 death toll, which stood at 35,166 as of Monday, is in line with an estimated 2.3 per cent mortality rate for the virus globally, Locatelli said.

So a bit less widespread than assumed (less for the herd immunity camp) and higher mortality rate than assumed (around 1%). However Italy does have the oldest average age and the older population was hit especially hard in Italy.