Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[SvennoJ]

New study from China describing the rate of spread vs distance / duration.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/can-i-catch-covid-19-on-a-train-new-study-explains-which-seats-are-riskiest-1.5048895

Using data from Chinese health authorities and rail timetables, they were able to identify 2,334 "index patients" – passengers who started to show COVID-19 symptoms within 14 days of their trip and were diagnosed with COVID-19 – and 72,093 other passengers who sat within three rows and five seats of those index patients.

All of the trips were taken on China's G trains between mid-December and late February, as the novel coronavirus was spreading beyond Wuhan to the rest of China and the rest of the world. The G trains account for the majority of Chinese passenger rail trips and carry more passengers than all of the country's airlines combined.

According to the study, 234 of the 72,093 passengers who sat near an index patient ended up testing positive for the disease themselves. That works out to 0.32 per cent, a number the researchers call the "attack rate."

Next to patient: 3.5% attack rate
Same row: 1.5% attack rate
One or two rows ahead or behind: 1/10th of the same row (0.15% attack rate)
Third row: half again (about 0.07% attack rate)

The researchers found that the attack rate increased by 0.15 per cent per hour of travel time, and by 1.3 per cent per hour for those passengers sitting right beside the patient.

The attack rate for passengers in the same row as the patient was 1.5 per cent, or more than 10 times the rate for those sitting in rows further ahead or behind. For those sitting in the seats next to the patient, the attack rate was 3.5 per cent.


More stuff to ponder before putting kids in the same room for 6 hours with desks 1 meter apart. They think that the drop off to the row in front or behind is mostly because of head rests and chair backs restricting the air flow, thus favoring sideways travel of the virus.