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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

Jumpin said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

He can't, it would need a 2/3 majority in both Senate and House to pass such an amendement, and that simply won't happen. It didn't happen in WW2 either, not in 1940 and not in 1944.

So yeah, I'm more inclined to think it's the Blofeld side of thought with that thing.

But yeah, you can see which lengths some people would go to discredit state/federal things in favor of private ones with this...

Hate to say it, but I was right.

And the whole anti-mail in vote thing is a part of all of this.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53597975

Trump now pushing to delay elections because of Coronavirus at the SAME TIME when he is pushing to push kids back into schools.

He still can't unless Congress approves, which they certainly won't do.



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Bofferbrauer2 said:
Jumpin said:

Hate to say it, but I was right.

And the whole anti-mail in vote thing is a part of all of this.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53597975

Trump now pushing to delay elections because of Coronavirus at the SAME TIME when he is pushing to push kids back into schools.

He still can't unless Congress approves, which they certainly won't do.

If that's the case, then we're both right.

As another note, US GDP is down 32.9%. This is actually kind of shocking considering heavily locked down countries still only dropped 10%, how is the US doing so much worse even when they weren't nearly as locked down as other places?



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RolStoppable said:
Nighthawk117 said:

Who gives a fuck?  You think China and Russia aren't fudging their numbers? C'mon man, the USA has every right to engage in disinformation

when it comes down to the Covid-19 numbers. For Christ sakes.

Indeed. The Land of the Free is no better than the lands of the (former) communists. Everyone who paid attention has known this since a long time. It was never about the USA being better than those other countries, it was always about the USA doing a much better job at keeping up the facade that they are better.

I am not going to be one of those people who act disgusted and/or shocked about the USA's practices after more than three years of Trump as the mightiest man. I'd be surprised if the USA had any integrity left at this point.

We don't. We have zero integrity at this point.  Maybe you should spend your time visiting Russia or China, since their more peace loving and human rights loving than the slave owning USA.



I'm not all that trusting of my own government either here in Ontario. Looking at the data we suddenly have a sharp drop after a period of rising cases without any real reason to suddenly go from +50% week over week to -40% week over week. Such big swings don't usually happen.

However as soon as it dropped below 100 cases for a day, phase 3 openings announced for Toronto and Peel region (this Friday)
Today, back to school plans laid out for September (not satisfactory, doesn't sound very safe)

Meanwhile pending tests has risen to 28K, quite a bit behind, while it was down to less than 2K pending a week ago.

Fun fact, schools had to close when the numbers of cases per day were a lot lower than they are now, so why re-open them lol. Grade 4 and up will wear face masks to school (except during lunch). That will stop it!

It's still over a month before the next school year starts, things could go either way. However if the infections follow the mobility trends, they will go up. It's still there, hasn't been suppressed yet. Meanwhile Japan and Australia are exploding again, and even China is going up sharply. Europe continues to climb back up as well.

But good news we're falling for the American numbers
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/2nd-u-s-virus-surge-hits-plateau-but-few-experts-celebrate-1.5046354
Reported deaths however, 3-day average over 1400! May 20th level.



What are the chances, of haveing 2 days, of exactly 1,465 deaths in a row, due to coronavirus? (US)



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JRPGfan said:
What are the chances, of haveing 2 days, of exactly 1,465 deaths in a row, due to coronavirus? (US)

Not as low as you think, actually.



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Jumpin said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

He still can't unless Congress approves, which they certainly won't do.

If that's the case, then we're both right.

As another note, US GDP is down 32.9%. This is actually kind of shocking considering heavily locked down countries still only dropped 10%, how is the US doing so much worse even when they weren't nearly as locked down as other places?

The US economy is fueled by over 70% on consumption, a higher ratio than any other country. But any store closure makes consumption impossible for the duration. Also, the amount of people laid off or furloughed, not getting much money in anymore, heavily weights on the consumption rate. And then of course there's the lockdown in itself; can't spend much money if you're staying at home, can you?

The worst part is that it is likely to continue, with the US now firmly being in it's second wave. And knowing the power of executives over the US government, both state and federal, I'm pretty sure the lockdowns will end too early yet again and bring in yet another wave due to doing so.

Also, the incoming housing crisis will make it much worse yet again. The rents are put on hold, meaning you do not have to pay them yet - but debt for rent payments are still racking up and eviction notes and the like are just put on hold. Once that moratorium ends, there will be mass evictions in the US (up to 29 million households, 3 times what the 2008 housing crisis had) - and guess how much that will weight on the economy.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
Jumpin said:

If that's the case, then we're both right.

As another note, US GDP is down 32.9%. This is actually kind of shocking considering heavily locked down countries still only dropped 10%, how is the US doing so much worse even when they weren't nearly as locked down as other places?

The US economy is fueled by over 70% on consumption, a higher ratio than any other country. But any store closure makes consumption impossible for the duration. Also, the amount of people laid off or furloughed, not getting much money in anymore, heavily weights on the consumption rate. And then of course there's the lockdown in itself; can't spend much money if you're staying at home, can you?

The worst part is that it is likely to continue, with the US now firmly being in it's second wave. And knowing the power of executives over the US government, both state and federal, I'm pretty sure the lockdowns will end too early yet again and bring in yet another wave due to doing so.

Also, the incoming housing crisis will make it much worse yet again. The rents are put on hold, meaning you do not have to pay them yet - but debt for rent payments are still racking up and eviction notes and the like are just put on hold. Once that moratorium ends, there will be mass evictions in the US (up to 29 million households, 3 times what the 2008 housing crisis had) - and guess how much that will weight on the economy.

People will start being evicted in high numbers soon.  Also that moratorium was mainly on state level for renters and the national level just covers renters who live in federally backed loans which covered about 12 million.  Some states never implemented eviction moratoriums while other states such as Louisiana expired in June.  Florida just extended theirs for renters till Sept. 1st.  We are about to see mass evictions and huge increase in homelessness considering renters are the most affected group due to most of them unable to work from home.

Losing that plus 600 a week on top of unemployment will send people over the financial cliff.  Unemployment typically only cover about 60% of former wages so the extra money was a lifeline for many poor and even middle class people.  That is gone starting next week due to Congress unable to act quickly enough which is mainly Republicans' fault with their wait and see strategy.  Democrats passed their bill in the House months ago and while bloated it was a start for negotiations.  Republicans truly can't govern worth a shit and this crisis shows it.

Last edited by sethnintendo - on 31 July 2020

JRPGfan said:
What are the chances, of haveing 2 days, of exactly 1,465 deaths in a row, due to coronavirus? (US)

Revised later as well, since when I copied it down July 29 was 1485, now it's 1465.

Changes later seem to happen all the time now. I had +17606 cases for Europe July 29, now it shows +17626
North America was +80020 on July 29, now shows 78399
Asia went from 79575 to 79509
South America from 89410 to 95675, and already changed for yesterday as well from 80090 to 86899

Thus changing the world total from yesterday +280337 to +287063, deaths from 6221 to 6426
And for July 29 from +284455 to +289053, deaths from 7034 to 6998 now not breaching the 7,000.

I guess more and more countries are 'time stamping' new cases and deaths putting them in the past when reporting new cases or changing the data afterwards.

I don't know how automated worldometer is but I do know countries do things differently and get handled differently. For example in Canada many provinces don't report in the weekend then you get a spike on Monday when they update (x cases on monday + y cases over the weekend), same for Denmark, silent during the weekend then worldometer puts a spike for Monday with cases for 3 days (I separate them out per day to smooth the curves)
However for France and Spain, who also don't report during the weekend, wordometer shows updates from Saturday and Sunday afterwards, hence the counts changing in the past.

It's getting more work revising past numbers more and more. And does it really matter at this point when everything goes week by week. Sweden is the king of making data look good by pushing stuff into the past, it always looks like the pandemic is over in Sweden, yet the whole curve slowly rises back in time.

There will be a human error margin in all the data as well of course, it's all people counting things and entering them into a system. Ball park and trends, absolute numbers aren't all that reliable.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
Jumpin said:

If that's the case, then we're both right.

As another note, US GDP is down 32.9%. This is actually kind of shocking considering heavily locked down countries still only dropped 10%, how is the US doing so much worse even when they weren't nearly as locked down as other places?

The US economy is fueled by over 70% on consumption, a higher ratio than any other country. But any store closure makes consumption impossible for the duration. Also, the amount of people laid off or furloughed, not getting much money in anymore, heavily weights on the consumption rate. And then of course there's the lockdown in itself; can't spend much money if you're staying at home, can you?

The worst part is that it is likely to continue, with the US now firmly being in it's second wave. And knowing the power of executives over the US government, both state and federal, I'm pretty sure the lockdowns will end too early yet again and bring in yet another wave due to doing so.

Also, the incoming housing crisis will make it much worse yet again. The rents are put on hold, meaning you do not have to pay them yet - but debt for rent payments are still racking up and eviction notes and the like are just put on hold. Once that moratorium ends, there will be mass evictions in the US (up to 29 million households, 3 times what the 2008 housing crisis had) - and guess how much that will weight on the economy.

Banks are also providing variable mortage rates under 2% interest. Good short term, but as soon as things recover those mortgages will all go up, a lot... We're set up for a new housing bubble as well.

Some bears out there think that the coronavirus crisis could be the pin that ends up bursting Canada’s housing bubble. The frothy Vancouver and Toronto real estate markets are among the frothiest on the planet. With rapidly rising unemployment levels as a result of COVID-19-induced lockdowns, many Canadians may be at risk of defaulting on their mortgages.

Even before the coronavirus, many pundits warned that there was a housing bubble forming in various parts of the country. With growing fears that we could fall into a depression environment, it would be foolish (that’s a lower-case f) not to rule out a scenario that could see a tonne of mortgage payment deferrals turn into defaults.