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Forums - General - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

Bofferbrauer2 on 27 June 2020
SvennoJ said:
jason1637 said:
Arizona is reducing the hospitalized numbers by putting people in tents and counting that as non hospitalized patients lol.

Are they still charging them the same amount for hospital stay? Or is there a tent discount...

In any case, if the bill arrives, they should then argue that they haven't actually been hospitalized if they were in the tent.



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Chris Hu on 27 June 2020

I hate to say it the death toll in the US will be over 200K. It hasn't even peaked in a lot of states yet. Can't see a rapid decline of new cases anytime soon.



SvennoJ on 27 June 2020

Looks like some states are reversing course

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/u-s-states-reimpose-virus-controls-after-daily-cases-surged-to-all-time-high-1.5002610

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott ordered all bars closed, while Florida banned alcohol at such establishments.

"It is clear that the rise in cases is largely driven by certain types of activities, including Texans congregating in bars," Abbott said. The Republican governor, who had pursued one of the most aggressive reopening schedules of any state, also scaled back restaurant capacity and said outdoor gatherings of more than 100 people would need approval from local officials.

Mayor Carlos Gimenez in Florida's Miami-Dade county announced Friday night he would close beaches over the Fourth of July weekend. He said cracking down on recreational activities is prudent given the growing number of infections among young adults.

Louisiana reported its second one-day spike of more than 1,300 cases this week. The increasing numbers led Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards to suspend further easing of restrictions. Republican Gov. Doug Ducey did the same in Arizona, where cases are topping 3,000 a day and 85% of hospital beds are occupied.

But Republican Gov. Bill Lee has been reluctant to reinstate restrictions or call for a mask mandate in Tennessee, which reported its biggest one-day jump in infections for the second time in a week, with more than 1,400,


While Australia is dealing with new incoming cases

Australia braced for more imported cases as citizens return home. About 300 people were due to arrive this weekend from Mumbai, India, with others expected to follow from South America and Indonesia. One state heath official said he is preparing for 5% to 10% of the returnees to be infected, based on arrivals from Indonesia in other states.

Europe is preparing to restart tourism...

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/eu-to-welcome-travellers-from-approved-countries-u-s-unlikely-to-make-the-cut-1.5002559

European Union envoys are close to finalizing a list of countries whose citizens will be allowed to enter Europe again, possibly from late next week, EU diplomats confirmed Saturday.

Anyone remember how the ball started rolling...



jason1637 on 27 June 2020

10 million gang. 20 by the end of the summer?



SvennoJ on 27 June 2020
jason1637 said:
10 million gang. 20 by the end of the summer?

It depends how it goes.

Atm we're at 1.155 million cases per week. If it stays flat from now on less than 9 weeks to 20 million, August 27th.
However cases have been steadily growing 114% week over week, shrinking it to 5 weeks and 4 days, August 5th.
That week would be adding 2.5 million cases if we don't stop the current growth.



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Pemalite on 28 June 2020

I keep seeing the US numbers climbing ever higher... And we haven't had a single case here in over a month... Economy is recovering.

Trumps policy in handling COVID-19 is an utter and complete joke and the pain the USA will have to endure will be extended.




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vivster on 28 June 2020
Pemalite said:
I keep seeing the US numbers climbing ever higher... And we haven't had a single case here in over a month... Economy is recovering.

Trumps policy in handling COVID-19 is an utter and complete joke and the pain the USA will have to endure will be extended.

The US actually won't have to endure anything. Poor people dying in the streets is their normal mode and their propaganda machines are strong enough to cover up a few more deaths. I think at this point it's gonna be irrelevant if they have 200000 dead or 20 million, their political and capitalist machine has proven too resistant even to a pandemic. Yes, a good portion of people will be worse off, but that has never stopped the US to claim superiority and blame everything on the poor.

Also, I reject the notion of calling anything the Republican party or Trump has done in the past 20 years a "policy".



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JRPGfan on 28 June 2020
SvennoJ said:
jason1637 said:
10 million gang. 20 by the end of the summer?

It depends how it goes.

Atm we're at 1.155 million cases per week. If it stays flat from now on less than 9 weeks to 20 million, August 27th.
However cases have been steadily growing 114% week over week, shrinking it to 5 weeks and 4 days, August 5th.
That week would be adding 2.5 million cases if we don't stop the current growth.

Yeah may 20th it was just 5m worldwide.
Its taken like ~36-37days to double the worldwide confirmed cases.

"end of summer" thats around september right? (for northern europe) so like 3 months away?
Yes by that time, we could be over 20m confirmed cases world wide.

Pemalite said:
I keep seeing the US numbers climbing ever higher... And we haven't had a single case here in over a month... Economy is recovering.

Trumps policy in handling COVID-19 is an utter and complete joke and the pain the USA will have to endure will be extended.

It proves you dont want to "act" late, and then do half ass meassures, only to give up, before time, because your worried about the economy.

Trump without a doubt, has caused this pandemic to hit the US economy worse than if others would have just taken the time to get it right 1st time around, and not made wearing masks a red vs blue thingy. The mixed messageing from the Whitehouse is hurting not just the US health system (and lives) but also the economy.

You cannot have a healthy ecnomy, if your population en mass are sick.
Why is that so hard to understand? Save the economy? you need to fight the virus, its the root of the issue.

vivster said:
Pemalite said:
I keep seeing the US numbers climbing ever higher... And we haven't had a single case here in over a month... Economy is recovering.

Trumps policy in handling COVID-19 is an utter and complete joke and the pain the USA will have to endure will be extended.

The US actually won't have to endure anything. Poor people dying in the streets is their normal mode and their propaganda machines are strong enough to cover up a few more deaths. I think at this point it's gonna be irrelevant if they have 200000 dead or 20 million, their political and capitalist machine has proven too resistant even to a pandemic. Yes, a good portion of people will be worse off, but that has never stopped the US to claim superiority and blame everything on the poor.

Also, I reject the notion of calling anything the Republican party or Trump has done in the past 20 years a "policy".

Doubt it can kill that many, at most I'd say around ~3m in the US.
If you just let it run its course though society. The old and sick, will be the majority of the deaths.

However if you need to get that many infected (before herd immunity removes the issue), you will be left with a population that has : more diabetes, more lunge damage, had blood clots and heart attacks, brain damage, kidney damage, liver damage.

People act like if you get this virus and dont die, your fine.
Your not, alot of people that make it, have lasting damage afterwards.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 28 June 2020

haxxiy on 28 June 2020
Mnementh said:
sethnintendo said:

a) B- and T-cells *are* you're learned immune answer. Both cell-types react to specific proteins or other molecules. In a case of an infection the body tries to identify proteins specific to the attacker (either virus or bacteria) and reproduce B- and T-cells with receptors for that molecule. After an infection both types of cells have some variants that live longer, these are memmory cells. The memory cells can in case of a new infection with the same virus or bacteria be reproduced very quickly. B-cells produce antibodies, that connect to the molecule they identify and destroy it. T-cells kill cells that show the molecule that they identify, in case of a viral infection they kill the cells of your own body that are infected and reproduce more of the virus.

b) Scientist don't know a lot about many things. Still, they also know a lot already and this current knowledge has already applications. For how long an achieved immunity will hold: too many factors are unclear yet. That doesn't mean we can expect a long-lasting immunity.

c) Maybe. You just said scientists don't know everything. There are different projections on how many people got already infected. You chose one on the higher end. So, what scientists really say is: *up* to 20 million may have been already infected. But maybe less.

d) As I answered in a, our immune response reacts to certain molecules. If a mutation changes these molecules, so that the receptors don't work anymore, you still need a new immune respone. Your immune system may react to multiple molecules from the infection. In that case changing one molecule will lead to partial immunity, as other receptors still work. Also some receptors may check for molecules, that are needed for the functioning of the virus, so that any change in that renders the virus harmless. But it is all a maybe, maybe your immune system only picks one specific molecule, maybe that can mutate and the virus will still work.
While what you said in the other points is mostly right on a simplified fashion (although the CDC estimate lies on the lower end and a recent study argues infections in the US might be underreported 27 times), each pathogen will have a certain number of accessible antigens, and each antigen will have a number of epitopes (that is to say, parts of it to which an antibody can bind) and each of the trillion B or T cells in your organism will also have different expressivities of assembling mechanisms based on genetic factors, cytokine signaling etc.
Of course, out of these there will ultimately be convergence selected by experience on what is able to effectively protect you. But even then we are talking about a fair number of them (on average 10 - 20 for each antigen) enduring in the immune system repertoire that will balloon to the millions with somatic mutations, each with their own affinity and specificity. So to expect that immunity could depend on a single thread that might break at any moment at the whims of pathogen mutation and cellular death is as naïve as believing you can forget your mother exists if one of your neurons randomly dies.
That being said, someone, somewhere, will probably be unlucky enough to have such a crap immune response that they will be able to be reinfected in a month, while a few people, a bit like the MERS study I've cited earlier, that will not only be immune to it for life, but also won't contract any coronavirus strain ever again.


 

 

 

 

 

Chris Hu on 28 June 2020

Since there where only two states where the number of new cases declined last the US death toll will be over 250K eventually.