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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

JRPGfan on 26 June 2020
sethnintendo said:
JRPGfan said:

CDC are saying US could have over 300,000 deaths due to the virus before years end.
ei. the next 6months+ will likely cost like 175,000 more people their life in the US.

Also you didn't factor in that ;
a) Not everyone that gets covid19, and recovers actually has meaningfull antibodies afterwards (95% do, but 5% seem not too).
b) Some with very mild cases only have immunity for like 2months time.
c) Also scientists say 70%+ of population might need to be infected before herd immunity is achieved.
*d) New strain of Covid19 (d614g mutation), mutated so much, antibodies from earlier infection, doesnt help any (as people in china are finding out).

Herd immunity takes time, it wont come in another 6 months time (imo).
Also you'll likely run into people that have had it, recovered, lost their antibodies in the meantime, and need to get re-infected with it again.

Imagine building up herd immunity to covid19, by just letting it spread... and then the virus mutates so your "herd immunity" doesnt do anything against it. In China they actually have a differnt strain than the ones in europe/us, and found that people who had their version, arnt immune towards ours.

a) your body can have b and t cells that fight virus instead of just antibodies

b) scientist still don't know everything about immune response

c) virus is obviously transmitting at fast pace if over 20 million or more might have already been infected in USA

d) even if it mutated your immune system would still have partial defense.  Isn't that what they always say about flu shots they get wrong every year?  It might not match the top strains for year but if you do get the flu supposedly the effects are less or so they say

e) I was just bsing around but what should have happened perhaps instead of nation wide lockdowns is we should have just let young people spread it among themselves and shipped all the old people to Antarctica or Greenland if pesky Denmark would have sold it to us


c)

In Austria they have a town called Ischgl.
They anti body tested the entire town, and found 42,4% had anti bodies.
Out of these, only 15,5% bothered to get tested before  (100% / 15,5% = ~6,5x).

This gives you a "general" idea of how high potentially the spread could be compaired to confirmed cases.
So in the USA there is likely less than 20m infected, if the virus there is acting like the one in austria did.
Going by the 6,5x factor, that means ~16m infected. Which is still aton more than the confirmed cases show (2,5m).

(~127k / 16m = 0.79 IFR)

d)  Yeah partial defense, but you'll probably still see people getting bed ridden for a week or so, and some dieing again. Virus mutating and starting a new spread would be bad.

e) Lmao :D
Shipping everyone in the US over 60 to greenland. You would need to bring materials to build temporary houseing then.





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Immersiveunreality on 26 June 2020
JRPGfan said:
sethnintendo said:

a) your body can have b and t cells that fight virus instead of just antibodies

b) scientist still don't know everything about immune response

c) virus is obviously transmitting at fast pace if over 20 million or more might have already been infected in USA

d) even if it mutated your immune system would still have partial defense.  Isn't that what they always say about flu shots they get wrong every year?  It might not match the top strains for year but if you do get the flu supposedly the effects are less or so they say

e) I was just bsing around but what should have happened perhaps instead of nation wide lockdowns is we should have just let young people spread it among themselves and shipped all the old people to Antarctica or Greenland if pesky Denmark would have sold it to us


c)

In Austria they have a town called Ischgl.
They anti body tested the entire town, and found 42,4% had anti bodies.
Out of these, only 15,5% bothered to get tested before  (100% / 15,5% = ~6,5x).

This gives you a "general" idea of how high potentially the spread could be compaired to confirmed cases.
So in the USA there is likely less than 20m infected, if the virus there is acting like the one in austria did.
Going by the 6,5x factor, that means ~16m infected. Which is still aton more than the confirmed cases show (2,5m).

(~127k / 16m = 0.79 IFR)

d)  Yeah partial defense, but you'll probably still see people getting bed ridden for a week or so, and some dieing again. Virus mutating and starting a new spread would be bad.

e) Lmao :D
Shipping everyone in the US over 60 to greenland. You would need to bring materials to build temporary houseing then.

That is almost a certainty yes.



JRPGfan on 26 June 2020
Immersiveunreality said:
JRPGfan said:


c)

In Austria they have a town called Ischgl.
They anti body tested the entire town, and found 42,4% had anti bodies.
Out of these, only 15,5% bothered to get tested before  (100% / 15,5% = ~6,5x).

This gives you a "general" idea of how high potentially the spread could be compaired to confirmed cases.
So in the USA there is likely less than 20m infected, if the virus there is acting like the one in austria did.
Going by the 6,5x factor, that means ~16m infected. Which is still aton more than the confirmed cases show (2,5m).

(~127k / 16m = 0.79 IFR)

d)  Yeah partial defense, but you'll probably still see people getting bed ridden for a week or so, and some dieing again. Virus mutating and starting a new spread would be bad.

e) Lmao :D
Shipping everyone in the US over 60 to greenland. You would need to bring materials to build temporary houseing then.

That is almost a certainty yes.

The "good" news is if potentially 16m-20m in the US has been infected already, you guys just need another 232m or so,
to reach herd immunity (70%+).

And the virus will just magically go away, as trump would say.

Do I need sarcasm tags? stupid virus... it's easy to forget its still in the early phases of it (~5% of population has had it),
when it feels like its been here forever already.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 26 June 2020

Immersiveunreality on 26 June 2020
JRPGfan said:
Immersiveunreality said:

That is almost a certainty yes.

The "good" news is if potentially 16m-20m in the US has been infected already, you guys just need another 232m or so,
to reach herd immunity (70%+).

And the virus will just magically go away, as trump would say.

Do I need sarcasm tags? stupid virus... it's easy to forget its still in the early phases of it (~5% of population has had it),
when it feels like its been here forever already.

It has been a slow and wild year,that's for sure.

We need some more wholesomeness and people getting along after this mess of a year is behind us,and the USA needs a president who can bring people together.I do not know all the wrongs and rights of Obama but atleast there wasn't as much conflict between the people as we see now.



SvennoJ on 26 June 2020
vivster said:
sethnintendo said:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-cases-idUSKBN23W2PU

CDC thinks maybe 10 times more people have or had it in USA than official numbers. That's about 20 million people then. Gives us another 6 months and we will be at herd immunity without no stinking vaccine. Just have to let a couple more thousand people die. Maybe need a few million to die and that might help social security not go belly up.  Trump just needs to hold more rallies especially inside nursing homes.

People dying is useless when they're not added to the death toll. The US is not counting a lot of deaths, either because they can't test or on purpose to make their state or county look better.

Just check the excess deaths statistics from the CDC. We're looking at a range of about 20k - 48k excess deaths not attributed to COVID. Those numbers are for the start of June.

If you check worldometer 3 day averages, Mexico is reporting 833 deaths with 5343 cases, USA 733 deaths with 38434 cases. 7.2x as many cases yet only 88% of the deaths compared to Mexico.

Comparing CFR for today's deaths vs 15 day ago reported cases (using 7 day averages)
Mexico: 749 / 3854 = 19.4%
USA: 609 / 21306 = 2.86%

USA is not counting all deaths, both are behind on detecting cases, Mexico is far behind on detecting cases.

Canada's current CFR is 29 / 577 = 5.0% Suggesting we're still missing about 5x as many cases (IFR should be around 1% according to anti body tests)

USA is at 92,854 tests per million
Mexico 4,000 tests per million
Canada 67,794 tests per million

Maybe compare with the UK at 128,317 tests per million and CFR of 134 / 1469 = 9.1%



Hmm, well if the CDC estimates 10x more people are getting infected than reported in the USA and IFR is between 0.7% and 1.0% then it should be
213K reported cases for Jun 10, with between 1,500 and 2,100 deaths on Jun 25. However the virus has been spreading more among the younger population with lower death rates, 609 is an IFR of 0.29%, pretty low but if the bulk of that 213K is people under 40, it's possible.

With the excess deaths of 20.2K to 48.8K (updated to June 24th according to the CDC page) then the USA is not counting 16% to 39% of deaths. Which puts the current 3-day average between 850 and 1017 deaths instead of 733, with a CFR between 3.3% and 3.9%, and an IFR of 0.33% to 0.39%. Seems plausible with the infection spreading mostly among the younger population atm.



Btw to reach herd immunity at the current rate by somehow keeping the spread as it is going now (mostly among the younger)
Using 7 day averages from Jun 10 (cases) x 10 and Jun 25 (deaths) corrected for excess deaths percentages

Conservative estimate, 50% immunity from 25 million today, need 165 million infected or 120 million more,
At 213K a day with 706 deaths per day, 398K more need to die.

Upper estimate, 70% immunity from 20 million today, need 232 million infected or 212 million more,
At 213K a day with 840 deaths per day, 914K more need to die.

A small sacrifice for something that might not even work.

Last edited by SvennoJ - on 26 June 2020

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JRPGfan on 26 June 2020



~9000 new daily cases today in Florida....

Feels like a week ago it was 2000, then 4000, and 6000, and now its 9000.
Theres rapid spread happending in florida now.


Back in May flordia did like 80k tests, and had 1% positivity rates.
Now its ~71k test and 13%+ positivity rates.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 26 June 2020

EnricoPallazzo on 26 June 2020

You guys think this sudden increase in the last few days in USA has any relation with all the protests that started one month ago? I would say yes but it doesn't seems to exist a relation between the states with more protests and the states with the sudden increase in the last few days.



JRPGfan on 26 June 2020
EnricoPallazzo said:
You guys think this sudden increase in the last few days in USA has any relation with all the protests that started one month ago? I would say yes but it doesn't seems to exist a relation between the states with more protests and the states with the sudden increase in the last few days.

No, I think it has more to do with re-opening too soon.
Alot of these republican run states, didnt feel like being in lockdown anymore, so they reopened too soon.
Ontop of that, most of them get their news from fox news, and see trump on tv never wearing a mask and downplaying covid19.
So their less likely to follow social distanceing rules and guidelines.

Like was the BLM protests worse on florida, texas, arizona than other places?

Nah, outbreak there has to do with other things than the protests (even if they probably marginally did effect it).
The worst of it, probably came from other things than the protests (being outsides + wearing masks, reduces spread by alot).

Its the people that go into crowded bars, without masks on.. ect that really spread it... you know the typical reopening of economy stuff, when you dont follow guidelines to do so safely.

Wait until disney Land reopens :p  (4th of july, NBA reopening ect)
Florida is screwed lol (205%+ week on week rises?), and will likely have to go back into a full lockdown soon.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 26 June 2020

pastro243 on 26 June 2020

I don't get what's the big deal with wearing a mask while you shop or interact with other people outside your house

Oh, there has to be a lot of undercounting deaths worldwide.



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Immersiveunreality on 26 June 2020
SpokenTruth said:
EnricoPallazzo said:
You guys think this sudden increase in the last few days in USA has any relation with all the protests that started one month ago? I would say yes but it doesn't seems to exist a relation between the states with more protests and the states with the sudden increase in the last few days.

NO, and I'll give you a very simple reason why.  Imagine a large city.  I'll use mine for example.

Protests: 3,000 people outside wearing masks.
Opening too soon: 600,000 people indoors shopping with no masks (based on my personal tabulation of mask to no mask ratio).

What bothers me the most is the more traditional older people that still think this can do them no harm so they can't wait till i pick a certain product out of a shelf and move close to me fastly and mostly do not wear facemasks,so yeah i'm worried about possible infecting them and use my stealth tactics. :P