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SvennoJ on 26 June 2020
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vivster said:
sethnintendo said:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-cases-idUSKBN23W2PU

CDC thinks maybe 10 times more people have or had it in USA than official numbers. That's about 20 million people then. Gives us another 6 months and we will be at herd immunity without no stinking vaccine. Just have to let a couple more thousand people die. Maybe need a few million to die and that might help social security not go belly up.  Trump just needs to hold more rallies especially inside nursing homes.

People dying is useless when they're not added to the death toll. The US is not counting a lot of deaths, either because they can't test or on purpose to make their state or county look better.

Just check the excess deaths statistics from the CDC. We're looking at a range of about 20k - 48k excess deaths not attributed to COVID. Those numbers are for the start of June.

If you check worldometer 3 day averages, Mexico is reporting 833 deaths with 5343 cases, USA 733 deaths with 38434 cases. 7.2x as many cases yet only 88% of the deaths compared to Mexico.

Comparing CFR for today's deaths vs 15 day ago reported cases (using 7 day averages)
Mexico: 749 / 3854 = 19.4%
USA: 609 / 21306 = 2.86%

USA is not counting all deaths, both are behind on detecting cases, Mexico is far behind on detecting cases.

Canada's current CFR is 29 / 577 = 5.0% Suggesting we're still missing about 5x as many cases (IFR should be around 1% according to anti body tests)

USA is at 92,854 tests per million
Mexico 4,000 tests per million
Canada 67,794 tests per million

Maybe compare with the UK at 128,317 tests per million and CFR of 134 / 1469 = 9.1%



Hmm, well if the CDC estimates 10x more people are getting infected than reported in the USA and IFR is between 0.7% and 1.0% then it should be
213K reported cases for Jun 10, with between 1,500 and 2,100 deaths on Jun 25. However the virus has been spreading more among the younger population with lower death rates, 609 is an IFR of 0.29%, pretty low but if the bulk of that 213K is people under 40, it's possible.

With the excess deaths of 20.2K to 48.8K (updated to June 24th according to the CDC page) then the USA is not counting 16% to 39% of deaths. Which puts the current 3-day average between 850 and 1017 deaths instead of 733, with a CFR between 3.3% and 3.9%, and an IFR of 0.33% to 0.39%. Seems plausible with the infection spreading mostly among the younger population atm.



Btw to reach herd immunity at the current rate by somehow keeping the spread as it is going now (mostly among the younger)
Using 7 day averages from Jun 10 (cases) x 10 and Jun 25 (deaths) corrected for excess deaths percentages

Conservative estimate, 50% immunity from 25 million today, need 165 million infected or 120 million more,
At 213K a day with 706 deaths per day, 398K more need to die.

Upper estimate, 70% immunity from 20 million today, need 232 million infected or 212 million more,
At 213K a day with 840 deaths per day, 914K more need to die.

A small sacrifice for something that might not even work.

Last edited by SvennoJ - on 26 June 2020