Risk factors for Covid19: (increased chance to die by a factor of)

Previously had tuberculosis = x 1,41
Hypertension = x1,46
chronic kidney disease = x2.02
HIV (treated) = x2,75
well controlled diabetes = x4,6
uncontrolled diabetes = x13,02

If you have HIV, or Diabetes (even if well treated) your in serious danger if you get Covid19.

source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kmo_1Tcdp30

Another 9 cases in Australia in the last 24 hour period.

One hospitalized case has been discharged, leaving the total in hospital at 17, 2 in ICU.

It's been a week today since the positive case at the Black Lives Matter protest, and so far there doesn't seem to seem to be an outbreak of cases from it.

Transmission has been at a very low level for some time, but stamping the virus out completely is proving difficult.

Apparently Covid19 can last many months in certain people.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/great-medical-mystery-as-covid-19-long-haulers-complain-of-months-long-symptoms-1.4981669

The stories there sound very familiar to what my wife has been and still is going through.

When Megan Desjardins attempts to garden these days, she has to take multiple breaks to catch her breath. A recent walk on the beach with her family left her exhausted and in need of a long nap. In early June, her chest was sore, her nose was numb, her arms were weak, and she had to lean on a chair just to hold the telephone up to her ear. Desjardins believes she contracted COVID-19 during a trip to Costa Rica and Panama in January and February. She said she experienced the first signs of illness -- chest pain, raw itchy eyes, and a headache – on March 17. That was 85 days before she spoke to CTVNews.ca for this story.

Ken Borg lived a health lifestyle before he fell ill from what he believes to be COVID-19. He believes he was infected with coronavirus at a house party in early March, which included several attendees who had recently returned from abroad. On March 11, the 58-year-old retiree experienced his first symptom -- a congested throat. Since then, Borg has experienced waves of fatigue, chest pain, heart palpitations, high-blood pressure, as well as red, painful lesions on his toes, or “COVID toes” as the condition has been sometimes called. And while the heart palpitations appeared to have stopped last week, Borg said he still experiences fatigue and his breathing isn’t completely back to normal. He was on day 92 of his recovery when he shared his story with CTVNews.ca.

Tracey Thompson was on day 88 of her recovery when she spoke with CTVNews.ca. She started showing symptoms on March 15. While she initially didn’t have any of the usual respiratory symptoms associated with COVID-19, such as coughing or trouble breathing, she did experience a fever, gastrointestinal issues, and fatigue. As the weeks dragged on, Thompson said new symptoms would appear, disappear, and then reappear with no warning. She had days where she felt like she was in a fog, she had rolling fevers, sore throats, chest pain, and lost her sense of smell and taste.

Tracey Thompson resorted to a popular Facebook support group called Survivor Corps, which aims to connect COVID-19 survivors and share information on the disease. And it appears Thompson isn’t the only one in search of answers. The Survivor Corps group has more than 54,000 members, many of whom describe themselves as “long-haulers” who have suffered from symptoms for weeks or even months.


It seems that nasal swab tests aren't reliable a week or more after symptoms first show.

Body Politic recently conducted a survey of 640 of their long-haulers, which is not peer-reviewed or representative of the entire group, and found that symptoms among respondents were not limited to cough, fever, and shortness breath. In fact, some of the more widely reported symptoms included fatigue, body aches, headache, brain fog, gastrointestinal issues, dizziness, chills, sweats, and trouble sleeping. Interestingly, the survey found the majority of respondents were between the ages of 30 and 49 (62 per cent). The survey also noted that nearly half of respondents (48 per cent) were denied testing or didn’t receive a test for another reason. Of the quarter who tested negative for COVID-19, they were, on average, tested six days later into their illness than those who tested positive.

According to one study, a false negative result became more likely if the patient was tested a week after their first symptoms emerged


It's definitely not just the lungs that get attacked.

Initially, COVID-19 was considered a respiratory illness, but Gorfinkel said researchers now know coronavirus, or SARS-CoV-2, can infect different organs or regions in the body, such as gastrointestinal areas and the neurological space. She said the virus has been found in stool samples, in blood, and even in cerebral spinal fluid.

(Blood clots are also a common symptom of Covid19 responsible for many deaths)

So far it's all still a medical mystery, the possible explanations the article discussed:
- “molecular mimicry” the fired up immune system keeps attacking similar looking proteins.
- Viral RNA or genetic material from the virus remains in the body and the immune systems attacks it again.
- Other health problems that are overlooked (because of attention on Covid19)
- Lingering physical symptoms that are the result of the psychological trauma experienced during the crisis.

Finally, Attaran said doctors and researchers still need time to study the viral pathogenesis – how the virus causes pathology and illness – before they can fully understand the long-term symptoms in some individuals. “This is just going to be a great medical mystery for years to come,” he said. “We’ll figure it out.” And while these chronic symptoms may only affect a minority of COVID-19 patients, this uncertainty combined with prolonged illness can be life-altering for those experiencing it.

Over 27k new cases today in the US. Cases are definitely spiking but deaths are not. Back in March and April a 27k day would be atleast 1.5k deaths but just under 800 dead today.

Deaths lag 2 weeks behind detected cases, the 800 dead today are from infections 23 days ago on average. Reported cases also lag behind infection date, can be as much as 2 weeks from infected -> symptoms -> get tested -> get test result -> add test result to daily reporting. However that path has become shorter and there are also many preliminary tests of front line workers. Since you can shed the virus (infect others) up to 3 days before showing symptoms, you can test positive as soon as 2 days after infection.

Thus very hard to correlate today's reported cases to reported deaths some time in the future. And there's the variation in reported data. Friday's usually have the highest count, 20% more than the lowest counts on Monday (USA actually reports the lowest on Sundays). Reported deaths are highest Tuesday to Thursday, 40% lower on Sunday. So reported deaths are dropping off already (791 today vs 904 yesterday, Tuesday was the highest this week at 1093) while reported cases are the highest today 27K vs 18.9K last Sunday.

It's too early to say the USA is spiking with one outlier. 3 day avg still shows a 97.8% week over week change. Today's big number did drive it up a bit from hanging around 92% week over week change last week. Today is 107% of last Friday, 27.2K vs 25.4K while the rest of the week was all below the previous week.

Comparing the last 2 weeks
June 6 to 12: 151.2K reported cases
April 30 to June 5: 155.9K reported cases
Thus 97% week over week change, not spiking yet.

More tests are done nowadays detecting more mild cases, thus the case fatality ratio is also going down over time. However deaths are also under counted which varies by state. Depending on where the biggest outbreak is atm, counts may be affected.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/05/30/how-covid-19-is-being-underreported-in-most-states/111871488/

What is concerning is that the world hit a new high, 141K new cases today, 3 day average 137.4K, 108% week over week change.
Highest reported single day deaths was April 17th with 8672 deaths, today 4603. (Highest this week was 5165)
Deaths being lower now is probably also because of under counting, Russia and Brazil both current top contributors are downplaying their death tolls. Pakistan, Peru, Chile and India are likely also under counting deaths.

Yet blame the scientists for being off with the models :)

The Beijing authorities shut down a major seafood and produce market and locked down several residential complexes on Saturday after 53 people tested positive for the coronavirus in the city https://t.co/5HLdnNkx2T

— The New York Times (@nytimes) June 13, 2020

Shit went down here in Chile since there are 2 different counts for dead people. 3.000 was the official one that used PCR tests and another one which has it a 5.000 that was reported also to the WHO that counted any death that could potentially be caused by the virus(probably the real one is something in between)

The health minister has renounced and another one was put in charge. Initially partial quarantines were working, but my guess is comunicational mistakes were made so people thought the virus was kinda over, everyone went out and now we are seeing huge damage to our health system. Total quarentine was done in Santiago where the virus has hit harder, but mobility in the city is just like 30% down from what's normal.

It's interesting that China doesn't officially count asymptomatic cases, so it's all good in the statistics, since, miraculously, over 99% of the cases in China in the last two or three months have been reported by local party secretaries as being asymptomatic.

2 COVID-19 vaccines have now reached Phase III trials. (Large scale efficacy testing)

7 others are in Phase II, (expanded safety trials) 7 more are in Phase I, (first stage testing) and another 125 are in in the pre-clinical stage.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Production is already starting to ramp up, not waiting for the trials to finish

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/astrazeneca-agrees-to-make-covid-19-vaccine-for-europe-1.4983059

AstraZeneca struck a deal Saturday to supply up to 400 million doses of an experimental COVID-19 vaccine to European Union countries. The Anglo-Swedish company recently completed similar agreements with Britain, the United States, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, a public-private-charitable partnership based in Norway, and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, another public-private partnership headquartered in Geneva, for 700 million doses. It plans to produce an additional 1 billion doses under a deal with the Serum Institute of India.

The vaccine was developed by Oxford University's Jenner Institute, working with the Oxford Vaccine Group. Testing of the experimental COVID-19 vaccine began in April with a study involving over 1,000 healthy volunteers in Britain aged 18 to 55. Another round of testing with 10,000 volunteers began last month.

Other companies, including Moderna and Sanofi, are racing to develop and produce a vaccine to protect against the new coronavirus, a step experts say will be crucial to allowing countries to ease public health lockdowns and restrictions on public life.