| jason1637 said: Over 27k new cases today in the US. Cases are definitely spiking but deaths are not. Back in March and April a 27k day would be atleast 1.5k deaths but just under 800 dead today. |
Deaths lag 2 weeks behind detected cases, the 800 dead today are from infections 23 days ago on average. Reported cases also lag behind infection date, can be as much as 2 weeks from infected -> symptoms -> get tested -> get test result -> add test result to daily reporting. However that path has become shorter and there are also many preliminary tests of front line workers. Since you can shed the virus (infect others) up to 3 days before showing symptoms, you can test positive as soon as 2 days after infection.
Thus very hard to correlate today's reported cases to reported deaths some time in the future. And there's the variation in reported data. Friday's usually have the highest count, 20% more than the lowest counts on Monday (USA actually reports the lowest on Sundays). Reported deaths are highest Tuesday to Thursday, 40% lower on Sunday. So reported deaths are dropping off already (791 today vs 904 yesterday, Tuesday was the highest this week at 1093) while reported cases are the highest today 27K vs 18.9K last Sunday.
It's too early to say the USA is spiking with one outlier. 3 day avg still shows a 97.8% week over week change. Today's big number did drive it up a bit from hanging around 92% week over week change last week. Today is 107% of last Friday, 27.2K vs 25.4K while the rest of the week was all below the previous week.
Comparing the last 2 weeks
June 6 to 12: 151.2K reported cases
April 30 to June 5: 155.9K reported cases
Thus 97% week over week change, not spiking yet.
More tests are done nowadays detecting more mild cases, thus the case fatality ratio is also going down over time. However deaths are also under counted which varies by state. Depending on where the biggest outbreak is atm, counts may be affected.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/05/30/how-covid-19-is-being-underreported-in-most-states/111871488/
What is concerning is that the world hit a new high, 141K new cases today, 3 day average 137.4K, 108% week over week change.
Highest reported single day deaths was April 17th with 8672 deaths, today 4603. (Highest this week was 5165)
Deaths being lower now is probably also because of under counting, Russia and Brazil both current top contributors are downplaying their death tolls. Pakistan, Peru, Chile and India are likely also under counting deaths.
Yet blame the scientists for being off with the models :)
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