Hey John did you ever consider that minority groups suffer more from diabetes and obesity because of factors such as lack of money, poor choices and their environment they were brought up in?

You are mainly farting in wind if you think higher death rate in minority group is just from vitamin D deficiency.

Hell there are diabetics that are so unhealthy that they have to amputate their fucking feet or legs.

Reading that they suspect that second strain started in Italy and took over in Europe. The original strain was squashed by the Chinese in Wuhan and for some reason is only still doing 'well' in Iceland.

More contagious seems correct in that it has been more difficult to stop compared to Wuhan. Less severe, Italy begs to differ. But maybe there are a lot more mild cases in this G-strain. The question is whether immunity for the G-strain also makes you immune to the original strain. (or vice versa, will a vaccine based on the original strain protect against this new, now more dominant G-strain)

The two weeks following this Sunday's Mother's Day should be very interesting.

Germany is lifting some more of the restrictions.
Now an unlimited amount of people from two households can meet (previously it was an unlimited amount of people from one household plus one person from another household).
Bundesliga could continue as soon as May 15th (of course without any fans).
Shops of all kind can re-open (previously limited to size).
The food service industry can welcome guests in their premises soon. (previously take away was the only possibility)
Local tourism sites and hotels will open up as well soon.

The US is a special case in the Western World due to it's chaotic response to the Pandemic both as a health issue and an economic issue, the effect on it's economy could be more disastrous than was first imagined 

Examining how far a cough can travel
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/a-cough-can-travel-farther-than-two-metres-new-study-demonstrates-1.4927302

Yeah, no surprise, more than 6 feet. But at least the quadratic rule applies. twice as far, 4 times spread or thinned out.
However other studies have shown that the virus can survive for 3 hours in the air in tiny droplets that can pass through masks either way.
At least you seem to need some decent exposure before it can take hold.

Just don't cough or sneeze, stay away from people if you can.

Some different statistics from the pandemic

https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/report-fines-issued-for-breaking-pandemic-measures-top-5-8m-questions-raised-over-snitch-lines-1.4926830

The majority of enforcement measures have occurred in Quebec, Ontario, Nova Scotia and Alberta, in that order, according to the report. Quebec had the most by far, with more than 3,000 tickets given, with Ontario coming in at 930 and Nova Scotia and Alberta having 516 and 44 respectively.

Most of the ticketing within these provinces has been concentrated in major cities: 1,848 in Montreal, 594 in Toronto and 216 in Halifax.

These add up to very different price tags. An earlier report from Policing the Pandemic stated the average ticket price in Ontario for a violation was $880, while in Montreal, the average was $1,546.

According to the most recent report, fines in Quebec have reached almost $4.7 million, with the next highest province, Ontario, clocking in at around $700,000.



This looks nice :/

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/when-will-school-resume-what-we-know-province-by-province-1.4923667

Elementary school teachers are back in classrooms in Quebec Monday, the first province in Canada to do so, but with young students unable to play together or sit near one another.

• Class sizes will be limited to 15 students
• Masks will be worn by daycare workers
• Bus service is expected to be reduced and at least one school board has said that only one child will be allowed on each bus bench
• Students will have their own working space and stay in one classroom throughout the day
• Students might not get their original teacher back
• Common areas like libraries, cafeterias, gyms, music and art classrooms will remain closed
• There will be no gym or music class
• Students will need to bring their own food since hot lunches will not be provided
• Outdoor play will be organized to maintain physical distancing requirements
• Parents and children with health problems have been advised to stay home

“We’re talking about having to provide emotional support and guidance to children from a two-metre distance while in the school,”

Might as well stick to home schooling. This sounds more like prison for younger kids. Go sit by yourself, stay there all day, no interacting with other kids. I'm sure there are still places on earth that have this type of schooling but here the kids are used to sitting together in groups, working and playing together etc. After 2 months of not seeing their friends, don't get closer than 2 meters! Sounds like a nightmare.

It also seems they expect at least half to stay at home or how will they double the amount of class rooms in a week lol. Less buses, yet one kid per bench (like that helps with the benches right behind each other in an enclosed space), are they going to make 4 trips? Perhaps these policy makers need to go back to school to learn some basic math :)

Let's not forget the real losers here, once again, in best historical tradition. For example the Navajo nation, and other native Americans. Orangeheads answer seems to have been to take away the money for the tribal governments and give it to for-profit organisations. That sure helps.

The truth is that it looks like part of Europe and Canada have given up on a suppression approach. While Australia and New Zealand are waiting until community spread is all but eliminated, we are starting things up again while we're still in the hundreds (over 1300 country wide) of new cases a day.

This seems to be the truth from now on
“It does seem that there will be second and third waves of the virus and we are likely going to need to adapt how we work several times over the next months to years,"
Work places are currently preparing to work through the pandemic, mitigation in all but name. Currently Ontario has had 12 days of declining numbers, yet still reports 400 new cases per day, likely hiding a lot more undetected cases. Plus the rate of decline is only 90% to 80% week over week. But tomorrow is go day for many places, phase 1 of the new normal.

No school yet until the end of the month and most offices still need to prepare to somehow keep everyone apart. Move desks further apart, remove all the common used items like remotes and drawing board markers. Create one way lanes in office spaces. Staggered work hours to avoid everyone coming and going at the same time. One week work from home, one in the office to thin out the number of people. Limit entry to buildings and access to places inside buildings. Regular cleaning of door handles, protocols for using the elevators. Maximum 4 people per meeting which have to sit far apart.

Then of course the whole 2 meter rule was just thrown out the window with a cough test, after it being proven that the virus can still be viable in an aerosol for up to 3 hours. Breathing recirculated air inside an office space where particles can build up instead of blown away by the wind :/

Instead of waiting another month, we'll just see how it goes and adapt to a second and third wave... So basically my wife is screwed. Not safe until community spread has been eliminated, which seems off the table.


Different strategies

Japan bobbing along trying to work through the pandemic.
South Korea went for full suppression and now has a much easier job to work through the pandemic.
Australia, pretty much eliminated community spread but is seeing a little uptick atm, it's still only in the 20s.
Canada, working hard on creating the new normal, Quebec leading the way while they are the hardest hit. (910 new cases, 112 deaths today)

Brazil and Iran and finding the test capacity to see how bad it has gotten :/
Not sure what's going on with Turkey, they created the perfect active case curve, not a single hitch, perfectly smooth...


I'm still working on a new set of graphs to highlight the slow down rate.

Australia A+, not fooling around. Straight down and under the 50% week over week until they got below the 40 cases per day.
South Korea had that little hitch opening things up again but they know how to stop the spread.
Japan can do a good job on suppression as well, however currently they stopped going down again. (Today's numbers are missing)
Iran is a strange one, a big spike where testing was ramped up and then an almost artificial decline until a few days ago.
Canada, struggling to get and stay below the 100% line, same as the USA, but hey let's start opening things up already.

Anyway, there doesn't seem to be much coordination here. Every province has its own ideas and plans. Our schools stay closed until May 31st at least, yet other places can start opening up. BC is getting ready to move on, which is logical since they are doing as well as Australia. However what does that mean for cross country traffic. BC is west coast, over 3000 km away from here, we do have the luxury of being quite spread out :)

I'll add Ireland to my graphs for Europe, see how it compares to other sub 1000 daily cases countries.

A far right nationalist extremist as head of state.