Barozi said: Disappointing to see the resurgence of infections recently. |
It's not a resurgence, it's compensating for the lower amount of testing done during the long Easter Weekend. A lot of countries publish results gathered on the previous day, which are lab results of tests taken one or more days earlier. The long weekend still has an effect on numbers until the end of this week, which is currently a trend upwards since all those missed cases are still there.
Here I plotted the average daily growth factor for 4 countries with data up to yesterday (graph ends at Easter Monday)
That's how the number of reported cases changes based on the weekends. Above 1.0 means the average daily reported cases are increasing day by day, below one means they are decreasing. Italy did have a bit of a resurgence last week, yet the 4 day Easter weekend has pushed everything down longer than normally happens in the weekend.
(I shifted Italy one day in the past since they report numbers from the day before, the numbers Italy posted today are already included in the graph, while USA, Spain and Germany are measured up to yesterday)
Overall the trend is downward, but it will take another week to make accurate predictions again thanks to the Easter slump.