When will the dust settle :/ China has started to increase again now lock downs are getting lifted

Apr 03 +19
Apr 04 +30
Apr 05 +32
Apr 06 +62
Apr 07 +41
Apr 08 +42
Apr 09 +46
Apr 10 +99
Apr 11 +108

South Korea had an uptick when loosening restrictions and clamped down again, they're back down to avg 30 cases a day. It's going to be tricky how to open things back up. In theory the virus should be done if everyone truly kept away from each other for 2 or 3 weeks, then identify everyone with symptoms and it's stopped dead in its track. Yet maybe some people have such mild symptoms they never think they could have it, but can still spread it? Of course all social distancing does for us is reduce contact by 60%, we're not stopping it, only slowing it down to declining numbers.


India has very low average age, and it will get lower after this. There are so many people there the virus still has the capability to cause 2 million deaths. And most we'll never even hear about :/


Meanwhile over here, we had another food drop we didn't ask for. The house is stuffed for another 2 months now, don't know where to put it anymore! I think it's the new excuse to visit, bringing supplies... They can come over again to pick some up lol.

The big storm was as usual, not that big. It kept people inside, good. Back to haphazard homeschooling tomorrow :/

Yeah, it's a foregone conclusion he's not gonna win in November.

Maybe I calculated wrong.

For USA I have a running average of 1900 reported deaths per day (before Easter messed up the numbers) divided by 328, 5.8 deaths per million.
For Europe I have a running average of 4100 reported deaths per day (same before Easter) divided by 747, 5.5 deaths per million.

That's per day, not the total for which the USA is at least a week behind Europe in the curve.

The USA had different reaction speeds in different states as well, I doubt the numbers will go down already.
Europe has been adding many corrections, targeted mass tests, adding nursing home deaths keeping the daily additions sort of flat for the past 16 days.
The USA has only been sort of stable for the past 8 days.

The trend before Easter was a downward slope for Europe, flat for USA, downward for deaths in Europe, still climbing for USA.

Russia might indeed raise Europe back up again. Western Europe is on a decline but adding extra previously uncounted deaths left and right. i assume at some point the USA will also start correcting its numbers for out of hospital deaths.

Anyway it's way too early to start celebrating and patting each other on the back. Tomorrow will still have bad numbers from Easter Monday, then we still have the effect of lower amounts of tests having been done over the Easter weekend, and then next week we can see whether social distancing survived Easter. The Easter effect is strong, from 7234 reported deaths world wide on Thursday to 5417 reported deaths world wide on Sunday.

Agreed and he is starting to realize it hence why he is lashing out more than usual. Economic instability is a death sentence for reelections. To top it off the third hardest hit state in the nation Michigan was an important swing state that helped propel him to victory on 2016. I don't see them repeating that this year.

That's what we said last time, too...

You are forgetting two simple facts:

1. Americans have a very short attention span. By August, they will have forgotten who is the guy to blame.

2. Joe Biden has absolutely no stand against Orangehead. The Democrats had four years to plan on how to go against a serial liar and they came up with the brilliant idea to finally waste their time with kind of a Muppet show. Sometimes I think their best chance would have been Jon Stewart (anyone remember the Rumble in the Air-conditioned Auditorium with Bill O'Reilly?).

"Dense" in all senses of the word?

That is only half the truth. The virus spreads by social interactions, mainly tourism and trade routes carries it into the wide open. For Europe, trading across borders is very common, and distances are short. For the USA, it is no surprise that tourist hot spot states like New York, California, Louisiana are the absolute top on the list. You'll hardly meet a tourist that went to the States to see Montana, Dakota etc graslands or the swamp states.

No Americans won't have forgotten about all of this by August because the economy will not be back to normal by then. Not at all.

No it's been pretty flat up to Easter

The thicker top line is the avg daily reported cases. You can see the USA catching up to Europe's reporting and flattening out later. It could till go up but very likely go down later than Europe (unless Russia starts getting really bad)

The thinner lower line is the avg daily reported deaths. The USA is quite a bit lower than Europe yet also reached a plateau later (I wouldn't call it a peak yet) while Europe is keeping the count high by adding older data (nursing home deaths now confirmed to be from covid19)

That graph only goes until Good Friday and since then reporting has gone unreliable, USA might stay under Europe, might cross over like Spain gained over Italy. Too early to tell, yet both are flattening at least.

Louisiana vs New York could still turn out to be like Spain vs Italy. NY is so far ahead in tests given it kinda skews the picture. Sure NY has nearly twice the population as Louisiana yet did over 4 times as many tests.

What I also fear could be happening in the USA is people opting to simply stay home. Many people have lost their job and thus health insurance, many couldn't afford the co-pay anyway, plenty others are not insured at all. Hospitals can't do all that much, might as well self quarantine. That happens here in Canada as well even with free healthcare. And the amount of deaths are under reported here as well.

Plus he has taken some left-wing progressive approaches like... "Stimulus Checks" - Might win over some voters?
Then again... Might loose a heap of conservative voters who prefer to support trickle down economics by giving everything to the rich/big business.. And hope they might make a dollar sometime in the future out of it.

I am of two minds... On one hand, he isn't my president... And he has been absolutely amazing comical, free entertainment for years, it is the gift that keeps on giving... And I would like him to stay for that.

On the other hand, the world needs stability... And the world needs to start seeing the USA as a serious nation again... A nation that the world looks towards as an example and as an inspiration... Plus the world has allot of work to do economically... And Trump is far to selfish to make that work over the long term to any great efficacy.

I mean manufacturing will likely start to see large dynamic shifts away from China... The world isn't going to automagically turn to the USA or Europe for manufacturing again, not with Tariffs, higher wages and the other idiosyncrasies related to thatose markets, so we will likely see companies shift towards India/Indonesia/Latin America/Africa for manufacturing.

It's interesting times going forth anyway, keen to see how things shift... But one thing is for certain, the Coronavirus has shaken the entire planet up and it's power/trade/manufacturing bases.

It's absolutely baffling that the American healthcare system isn't actually able to look after those with healthcare needs. - Universal Healthcare in Australia is not only cheaper in terms of cost per capita, but also provides better quality care and is able to look after a larger percentage of the population...

And it's right now that healthcare systems around the world are being systematically tested to their limits... And contrary to popular belief, healthcare isn't just your trip to the hospital, it includes the dissemination of information and warnings and other preventative measures to prevent people from requiring it in the first place.

I literally almost choked when I discovered that Americans on average pay $10,000 to have a baby... And some hospitals even charge the mother to hold their child after birth. That is insane. Criminally insane.