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SvennoJ on 13 April 2020
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NightlyPoe said:
SvennoJ said:
And meanwhile Europe has 747 million people total, compared to 328 million in the USA.

USA is reporting 91 cases per million atm, Europe 48 cases per million
USA is reporting 5.8 deaths per million, Europe 5.5 deaths per million

The USA was 2 weeks behind Europe, had more time to prepare, and it's still very possible the USA will peak higher than Europe. It's close.
Europe got screwed since it broke out in a popular holiday destination during ski season.
Yep Italy could have handled it better and saved Europe a lot of trouble.
The US squandered the extra time they had.

Where'd you get those numbers?  They're way off.

The United States' deaths per million is 71.8 (23,485 ÷ 328.2).
Europe's deaths per million is 106.7 (79,784 ÷ 747.5).

Though it it true that the United States has more confirmed cases per capita, at least as far as we know.  Furthermore, the United States has almost certainly peaked.  The number of hospitalizations and intubations in New York has fallen through the floor.  That cluster was the rocket fuel for the deaths in the United States, and if it's stabilizing as quickly as it appears to be, then the United States is in good shape moving forward as no other region is likely to experience a breakout under current conditions that will last at least 2 more weeks.

Europe, on the other hand, I'm not sure is out of the woods yet.  Yes, Western Europe is stabilizing, but the only reason the numbers are even remotely comparable to the United States is because Eastern Europe has been mostly spared up until now.  But Russia, and its 1/5 of the continent's population, is currently experiencing a spike, which doesn't bode well.  There may well be a double peak in Europe.

Maybe I calculated wrong.

For USA I have a running average of 1900 reported deaths per day (before Easter messed up the numbers) divided by 328, 5.8 deaths per million.
For Europe I have a running average of 4100 reported deaths per day (same before Easter) divided by 747, 5.5 deaths per million.

That's per day, not the total for which the USA is at least a week behind Europe in the curve.

The USA had different reaction speeds in different states as well, I doubt the numbers will go down already.
Europe has been adding many corrections, targeted mass tests, adding nursing home deaths keeping the daily additions sort of flat for the past 16 days.
The USA has only been sort of stable for the past 8 days.

The trend before Easter was a downward slope for Europe, flat for USA, downward for deaths in Europe, still climbing for USA.

Russia might indeed raise Europe back up again. Western Europe is on a decline but adding extra previously uncounted deaths left and right. i assume at some point the USA will also start correcting its numbers for out of hospital deaths.

Anyway it's way too early to start celebrating and patting each other on the back. Tomorrow will still have bad numbers from Easter Monday, then we still have the effect of lower amounts of tests having been done over the Easter weekend, and then next week we can see whether social distancing survived Easter. The Easter effect is strong, from 7234 reported deaths world wide on Thursday to 5417 reported deaths world wide on Sunday.