Here's the USA compared to Europe

The lower lines are the average deaths per day, while the top lines are the avg reported cases per day.


The USA was almost 12 days behind when crossing the 100 reported cases per day, 14 days behind for 100 reported death daily.
Currently the USA is 8,7 days behind Europe in total case count 13.8 days behind in reported deaths.

Europe is peaking, the USA could be reaching the peak as well but the current slope downwards is caused by a very low case count last Sunday while yesterday was close to Saturday's numbers again. No clue why it's swinging so wildly atm in the USA.

Europe's numbers are currently boosted by France making corrections in reported cases (mass testing nursing homes) and France and now also Belgium are making corrections to reported deaths from nursing homes. Without those corrections, the USA would currently be matching the daily growth rate with Europe (though still behind in total cases) Without those corrections Europe's reported deaths are in decline, while in the USA it's a steady upward slope.

Now we know the death count is under reported in Europe and other places. How much is it under reported in the USA is the question. With health care being so expensive people will be more reluctant to seek help, older people choosing to die at home or never making it out of the nursing home. Post humus tests still cost time and money. We won't know until the USA starts making corrections or someone compares the 'normal' expected number of deaths for the time of year to how many new 'unexplained' deaths there are.

Trends show the USA is catching up to Europe. But it's too early to tell whether the USA will peak higher than Europe. Turkey is a wild card in Europe atm, coming up rapidly and already in 5th for daily reported deaths.


We could compare the USA to Canada

The scale is different btw (horizontal scale is double)

Canada crossed the 10 cases per day on March 7th, the USA on March 1st.
Canada crossed 100 cases per day on March 16th, the USA on March 7th.
Canada peaked at 1600 cases per day (0.97x current growth rate)
The death toll is still climbing (corrections from nursing homes here as well) and is currently 50 a day (1.33 per million)
The USA is at avg 33K new cases daily and over 1400 deaths daily (1.10x avg growth, 4.35 per million)

Toronto and Montreal are hit the hardest but nothing like NY.
Btw half of our travel related cases were imported from the US (the rest Europe) before community spread took over.

I'm glad we started measures 'early' here, although it would have been better to close the US-Canada border a bit sooner as well as suspending Europe air travel earlier. What was the point of delaying the inevitable?

Not much is known yet, permanent damage can only be confirmed to be permanent after enough time has passed

https://www.dw.com/en/covid-19-recovered-patients-have-partially-reduced-lung-function/a-52859671

"In some patients, lung function could decline by about 20 to 30% after recovery," says Dr. Owen Tsang Tak-yin, medical director of the Infectious Diseases Centre at Princess Margaret Hospital in Hong Kong.

The good news in that article:

The majority of virologists are convinced that recovered COVID-19 patients are immune to the new SARS-CoV-2 virus after the infection has run its course. After all, the body's own immune system has produced precisely those antibodies during the infection that render the pathogen harmless.

This all-clear also applies to those who had only a weak course of the disease and showed few to no symptoms. Nevertheless, their immune systems reacted to the pathogen and produced the corresponding antibodies. A renewed infection with the new coronavirus is therefore highly unlikely.

But there as well, only time will tell.



@Vister, this is why controlled tests need to be done before a vaccine is rolled out. A vaccine can be ready in months, but it takes at least a year to do various controlled clinical trials to determine whether it's safe and effective. The first small scale test should already be underway (was scheduled for early April), then depending on favorable results it will be scaled up to 100K people after a few more months.

We don't have criteria yet what an immunity certificate should be like or what tests are needed to be 99.99% certain it is what it says. Your immunity is naturally high right after getting over an infection yet reduces over the next few months. Hence the Canadian study whether plasma from newly recovered patients can be used to treat new patients. That will only work in those few months right after recovery. Whether your natural immunity will be enough from a mild infection to then withstand a major infection half a year later, we simply do not have any data on that yet. Just some wild stories about some people getting re-infected or the disease flaring up again, or someone with a 31 day incubation time, and people infected with multiple strains. Most of the wild claims come from China and can't be trusted at all.

So all we have currently is, it is highly likely that you will be immune to further infections if you already had it once, and highly unlikely that you can spread it after already having it once. Is that enough :/



As for other organs, it's not just ventilators that are in high demand
https://www.ft.com/content/e26524a5-c868-451c-a7d7-a91627a1722c

Leading London hospitals are running short of vital equipment in intensive care wards, including blood dialysis machines needed to treat patients suffering from coronavirus-related kidney failure, according to a leaked memo. The shortages, which go far beyond concerns about the lack of ventilators and protective equipment, emerged from a conference call of some 80 senior National Health Service doctors. They illustrate the way Covid-19 can damage much more than the lungs and respiratory system in patients who become seriously ill — affecting the kidneys, heart and occasionally even the brain.

I wouldn't count Turkey to Europe to be honest. Most of the country and it's population is in Asia. Probably better off to count the country to middle east in that regard.

They are also ahead of France and UK in testing per capita, and will soon pass Spain. 

Again you guys can bash the US all you want. The reality is they arent hit as hard as your European powers and likely never will reach that point, and the deaths per capita rate shows that.

It's truly horrifying on their part, one because our country is being run by an idiotic manchild and two because the system they can never stop bashing will end up doing a better job than theirs. But hey that's Europe for you.

That's up to the European union to decide :p

I'm using this site to track European totals
https://interaktiv.morgenpost.de/corona-virus-karte-infektionen-deutschland-weltweit/

And here I though a disaster would unite people against a common threat, yet the opposite is happening :/

Humans sigh.

Tell that to the guys who blame America for all their woes or who point the finger at it despite doing an equally shity job with their countries. Sorry but the America bashing gets very old. 

These graphs are meaningless. At best, it shows how thorough testing is done. Smaller states like Luxemburg, Andorra, Vatican, Switzerland, etc, will always be high on these graphs, as it simply takes less tests to get a good idea. A good example is Ecuador where people are dying left, front, right and back. That country wuld probably in the top three in those graphs. African states are anyone's guess. And the muslim countries as a whole where religion plays a key role as well (Iran being the exception but they are screwed anyways so no reason to hide numbers).

The USA is obviously looking good because too many elderly people simply can't afford a walk to the hospital or even a test so they die at home (officially counted of old age). We would have to compare daily/weekly average death rates in the past decades with current death rates to get an idea. Then agan, (greatrly reduced) pollution plays a role in those statistics, too.

How is it that Tucker is among the few that are asking the burning questions and challanging stats that are already proven flawed is beyond me.

Terrible terrible journalism and hardly any journalist out there is asking the questions we want answers for.

EDIT: just so that everyone knows, I don't think tucker is doing good journalism here either, but he asked many what many of us are asking, unfortunate that is riddled with petty games

Tucker mentions a few of the hundreds of possible reasons why modelling was and is flawed and the one overwhelming reason why we should still adhere to strict measures for now is that there are too many unknowns about the disease to act like it's already receding. We know based on the testing that SARS-CoV-2 spreads very easily, so much so that the disease won't just go away - the pandemic will go on until herd immunity (60++%) is reached through infection/recovery or vaccination, which can mean 18 months or more, yet those won't be spend in lockdowns as Denmark or Austria show - that is a false insinuation by Tucker.

Mass scale anti-body tests, that are in developement and quite close to roll out, will give us a much better picture of the diseases spread, as there might be tons of ppl that already recovered without ever noticing they were infected - the higher this number the better. Yet in the countries that have a high amount of PCR tests per capita the rate of positive tests seems a bit too low (under 10%) to hope for herd immunity to be already well on it's way.

apropos terrible journalism, I absolutely despise how Tucker uses this segment to weave in shots in the abortion discussion (8:42) and also connects totalitarianism to the climate change debate (10:08) - subtle but effective propaganda effort

the irony is that he heavily criticises the shut down of debate about how to handle this pandemic, while championing a president that himself demands the media to be his mouthpiece instead of asking tough questions