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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

NightlyPoe said:

And yet, again, the United States has so far performed better than many of those developed countries in the current challenge. 

Is this a joke? You guys could see what was happening in Europe and your president kept saying that everything was fine. The NY State is now experiencing what 1 single region of Italy have been dealing with for the last 40 days. We'll talk about how well the US performed after everything is over.



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NightlyPoe said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Please show me where, because I don't see anything like that yet.

Keep also in mind that it only really took off 2 weeks ago, while it started much earlier in Europe. The curve is flattening already across Europe, so the state of European countries right now is about where the US will be in 2-3 weeks, give or take.

Also, just look at that trendline:

Once those cases become serious cases, then the system will collapse. It's already doing so in NY right now (which has almost as many cases as all of Spain and more than Italy), and will go downhill from there.

Interesting that you've shifted put the burden of proof on me, even though I was the one asking for evidence of someone else's comment.  Still, I'll answer.

Just look at some of the headlines and the numbers.  The healthcare system in several countries, like Italy, Spain, and to a lesser degree, France and UK, are having a lot more trouble keeping up.  Their mortality rate is like 3-4 times what it is in the United States.

Keep also in mind that it only really took off 2 weeks ago, while it started much earlier in Europe. The curve is flattening already across Europe, so the state of European countries right now is about where the US will be in 2-3 weeks, give or take.

Story was the same a couple weeks ago.  This isn't new to today.

Once those cases become serious cases, then the system will collapse. It's already doing so in NY right now (which has almost as many cases as all of Spain and more than Italy), and will go downhill from there.

Actually, New York is holding up pretty well.  The mortality rate there is only a little higher than the rest of the country.  I was afraid things would get ugly, but so far, it's hopeful.

And pointing to a possible future doesn't make sense for the purposes of what we're currently discussing.  Someone said the virus showed the United States healthcare system wasn't the best.  Some theoretical avalanche of cases in the future that would theoretically break the system doesn't advance the accuracy of that statement in the slightest.

bolded: That's because the US are 2-3 weeks behind. Coronavirus takes a while before it gets dangerous, the first 1-2 weeks it feels like a cough and only then it rapidly deteriorates. The US are at a point where most are still not deteriorated yet.

italic: It ain't new, but the virus only got a real hold in the US weeks after Europe. Take a look again at the curve and you'll see that European countries took off much earlier. That's why the US are weeks behind Europe in that regard, just compare the US to Italy in that regard. In Europe, the worst has passed, the number of new cases continues to drop. Not so for the US, for which the worst is yet to come, especially since there's no lockdown in many regions yet.

Also, I didn't shift the burden to you, you made a claim but didn't give any proof along with it, and I was asking for those proofs. Nice try shifting the burden of proof to me, but it's your duty if you claim something.



NightlyPoe said:

And yet, again, the United States has so far performed better than many of those developed countries in the current challenge.  

I think the other developed countries have a different view on this point. As explained by Bofferbrauer2, you are still weeks behind, and compared to Europe 2 weeks ago it looks terrible in the US. Trump is viewed as totally insane, and the only people that are shown making a good job are Fauci and Coumo.



The insideous thing about the terrible healthcare system in the US is not the covid deaths but all of the ruined lives that aren't counted in any statistic. Sending people bills of tens of thousands for getting tested or treated shows the complete contempt that the US has for its citizens. Contempt isn't a word that should be associated with a healthcare system and I haven't heard it in connection with any other system.



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SvennoJ said:

Yeah basically the same, more exposure, higher risk. But lacking data what kind of low exposure might reduce the risk enough to make it a viable 'strategy'. Then define the average person, what's enough to train the immune system, next to not being able to do much when things grow worse anyway, risking permanent damage to the lungs and kidneys. That goes hand in hand with developing a safe and working vaccine.

When we have something to actually treat severe symptoms it could become a viable strategy. Anti body research is ongoing as well

I also think it's a viable strategy for countries that are letting the virus loose or just can't possibly follow the western model of lockdowns, let alone the Chinese model.

When you say permnant damage to the lung or kidneys, what kind of damage are we talking about here?

How likely is it for someone in his 20s to get that sort of damage? 30s? 40s?

What if the chances of that damage is related to the viral load in the first place?

Our conversations are unfortunately lacking meaningful numbers, and this isn't your or my fault. It's just the way it is. Another example of this is the conversations about the vaccine. How certain are we that we are going to get a vaccine? There have been serious attempts at coming up with vaccines for far deadlier viruses but all those attemtps have proven futile so far. It's not unrealistic to operate under the assumption that a vaccine may never be ready, or at least may never be ready in the timeframe we've been given (12-18 months).

Last edited by LurkerJ - on 08 April 2020

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The US have crossed the 400k mark. There are more cases there than in Italy, Spain and France combined. And at the current rate that will also include Germany in 2 days.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
The US have crossed the 400k mark. There are more cases there than in Italy, Spain and France combined. And at the current rate that will also include Germany in 2 days.

And don't forget the deaths. They are a few weeks behind Germany and they already have more deaths per capita while most likely being undercounted. Not sure if they'll be able to reach the deaths per capita of Italy, Spain and France, but they'll sure come close to it.



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NightlyPoe said:
last92 said:

The US healthcare system is generally viewed as a terrible system by most developed countries. So there really is no need to put anything to rest in the first place.

https://www.who.int/healthinfo/paper30.pdf

And yet, again, the United States has so far performed better than many of those developed countries in the current challenge.  Indeed, the #2 country on that list had its healthcare system completely buckle and the #1 was didn't do all that well either.

So, "generally viewed" is maybe not a good metric here.

And, as to the question I keep putting forward, the United States should have its medical system's reputation grow over the last few weeks instead of sink based on its response.

this assertion is premature - the data we are looking at is very much incomplete



vivster said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:
The US have crossed the 400k mark. There are more cases there than in Italy, Spain and France combined. And at the current rate that will also include Germany in 2 days.

And don't forget the deaths. They are a few weeks behind Germany and they already have more deaths per capita while most likely being undercounted. Not sure if they'll be able to reach the deaths per capita of Italy, Spain and France, but they'll sure come close to it.

They're already getting close just in cases per capita, so I expect them to reach death per capita, too

Keep in mind, this was the situation 10 days ago:

The US are really climbing up the ranks here



Bofferbrauer2 said:
vivster said:

And don't forget the deaths. They are a few weeks behind Germany and they already have more deaths per capita while most likely being undercounted. Not sure if they'll be able to reach the deaths per capita of Italy, Spain and France, but they'll sure come close to it.

They're already getting close just in cases per capita, so I expect them to reach death per capita, too

snip

The US are really climbing up the ranks here

I've stopped to pay much attention to confirmed cases. It is obvious from the death counts that the countries with the highest death tolls have a significantly undercounted cases. And since the US fanboys reject all total counts because their country is soooo YUGE, the only thing I'm looking at right now are deaths per population. To get to the numbers Spain has right now the US needs 100k deaths. By the time they reached that number Spain will still be much further ahead.

Imagine the disaster if this crisis ends and the US has fewer deaths per capita than European countries with actual healthcare.



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