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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

barneystinson69 said:
So its probably coin-toss odds that Boris Johnson makes it at this point?

Yikes. Really hoping he pulls through.

Apparently once your a week or so on ventilator your odds drop by alot.
I swear I remember hearing a doctor saying than more than 80% of patients that get on a ventilator (due to this virus), never leave it.



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LurkerJ said:

I would like it, if for once, I turn on the TV to watch a journalist asking questions that's in the mind of many of us and not the usual daily reporting. Some of mine:

  • The end point of the models is August, what happens after August? What happens when the measures are put in place are no longer followed, either because we're fatigued or because they're officially lifted?
  • Officials, including Boris, insist on using the term "delay" the spread. I have yet to hear an official statement talking about stopping the spread. Are we all going to be infected at some point? It seems like it's a realistic conclusion.
  • We're not being told what's going to happen in September because non of the models extend beyond August.
  • What are the metrics for success? What are we compromising for? It's understandable what the metrics for success in the first few months, but how about a year from now?
  • If modeling is all we have to base our decisions on, at what point do the models suggest that the amounts of deaths that are going to be prevented over the next year, not just the next 3 months, are worthy of shutting down the economy?
  • Where are the models about how wrecked the economy will be for each country 3 months from now?
  • What happens if we don't get more stimulus bills and what happens if we do? What will be the outcome a universal basic income is adopted at a global level?
  • Are the models taking into consideration the fact that they're local and whatever decisions that are based on them are not being implemented internationally? The states of the UNITED states of America and the members of the European UNION have taken different path in their attempt to deal with the current situation, which is a joke. Scientifically, literally everyone has to be on the same page for the lockdwon to work be effective but that's not the case. What are the consequences of that and what do we do about it? If such unions are failing to unite what shall we expect from the rest of the world?
  • This is going to be a years-long problem that can only end with a vaccine, isn't it?

So far we have China and South Korea who have things under 'control' (perhaps just information control on the part of China...)

China has draconian measures in place though. You have an app on your phone to tell you if you can go outside (temperature check etc) and all your movements and contact with other people is tracked just in case. Meanwhile the borders are closed to stop it from coming back in. Getting rid of it will only work with global cooperation, which won't happen. So either keep the borders closed, quarantine and test everyone coming in or be prepared for another flare up.

South Korea's economy is still halted.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/south-korea-tamps-down-coronavirus-but-economy-remains-paralyzed-11586180838

Any return to normal is risky
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/south-korea-s-return-normal-interrupted-uptick-coronavirus-cases-n1176021

With the slight upticks, it's clear that South Korea hasn't fully contained the virus yet. But local clusters aren't the only problem. South Korea is simultaneously coping with an influx of travelers from Europe and the U.S., which has resulted in more than 518 imported cases.


The metrics for success, who knows. For now it's not collapsing the healthcare system and minimizing the death toll. The problem with exponential spread is that i might feel like too much when you suppress the new cases to under 100 a day, yet it can grow fast. The unmitigated rate of spread is 10x per 15 days, 100x in a month, 10,000x every 60 days.

Success would be an easy, quick result, mass produced test, that can find the virus before people get contagious. No clue if that's possible. Otherwise it's waiting for a vaccine or mass produced anti bodies to fight the virus, a cure for those that need it.

Yeah, it's going to be years before we're done with this. It's out in the world, it's not going way. We'll have to find a way to 'live' with it until a vaccine is ready and then it will still be a problem in countries that can't afford to vaccinate enough people to stop the spread. But we might get a situation where 'poor' countries have achieved herd immunity (at immense cost to the population) through inability to contain the spread, while the first world is still running around in circles.

What we need to know is, will you actually be immune to secondary infection after getting it once.
If we have a vaccine, how long will it be effective.
More immediately, can children spread the virus (seems likely for now) When is re-opening schools safe.
Is there a way to kill the airborne virus, a specific wavelength of ultraviolet light perhaps
https://www.digitaltrends.com/news/can-uv-light-kill-coronavirus/


Where the economy is going to surge is in Telecommunication. Online schooling, working from home, virtual meetings, online shopping.



JRPGfan said:
barneystinson69 said:
So its probably coin-toss odds that Boris Johnson makes it at this point?

Yikes. Really hoping he pulls through.

Apparently once your a week or so on ventilator your odds drop by alot.
I swear I remember hearing a doctor saying than more than 80% of patients that get on a ventilator (due to this virus), never leave it.

I think in one of Trump's press conferences recently he said to a reporter something along the lines "don't ask me that, because the answer is not good" (or something like that; in regard to how people do when they get to that point)






1doesnotsimply

JRPGfan said:

If new york is like most other places, the majority of the ICU cases are people on ventilators.
Right now thats only "4,376 patients in their ICUs" as someone said, earlier on.

Which is a far cry from the 40,000 worst case outcome their models showed.

However, alot of people have mild symptoms before, they turn bad enough they need a ventilator.
Think back a week or more ago, how many confirmed cases + hospitalised did New York state have then?

If this is the "peak" of new daily cases, and hospitalised,... then a week from now, should be the peak of ICU cases, and ventilators.
Then a week or two, following that, should be the "peak" of deaths.

I never took much stock of those numbers to start with.

Should be interesting to see how things unfold.

jason1637 said:

The church was closed the 2nd week in March. They probably got it elsewhere. 

Pretty sure some congregations are still open for business?

Either way, even if they "probably" got it elsewhere, they risked giving it to their entire Church... They are assisting in the spread, thoughts and prayers did nothing.

NightlyPoe said:

And at the time the statement was made, he was correct to anyone's knowledge.  The comment came before the first case of community spread was discovered the following day.  And during his "inaction" he instituted the travel ban from China, set up the task force, mentioned it in the State of the Union, and asked Congress to appropriate money.  Oh, and he took the time to speak about unprompted while in India.

Trump's comments during that time period were generally, "Maybe it will, maybe it won't, we'll be prepared" types of comments.  That's where all the "downplay" snipped quotes come from.  It's the type of crap you can get from piecing together any meandering comments from Trump.

And there weren't even "months" to do any denying.  Just two weeks after that first case was discovered, the whole country was shutting down.  So, please.  Just knock it off.  Trump's response wasn't perfect, but you're completely re-writing history and trying to cram extra months between the end of February and mid-March.  If anything, Trump did better than the average president because (as much as it grates to hear him use it over and over) he did issue that travel ban when most presidents would have bowed to China.  Without those travel restrictions, we probably get hit around the same time as Europe without the advanced warning of how bad it can be from Italy.

The Corona Virus was gaining traction in November, 2019. - That is when we should have started to take action the world over.
When did trump take action? That video was late Feb, 2020.

He asserted they had the virus "under control". - That the "numbers are smaller than just about anybody". - And here we are today, the complete opposite of his statements.
https://therecount.com/watch/daily-recount-april-5th-2020/2645643680

SpokenTruth said:
NightlyPoe said:

And at the time the statement was made, he was correct to anyone's knowledge. 

This is the problem.  When you don't know, don't say shit.

If data and information are limited, then you say data and information are limited.  Instead, Trump downplayed it.  Over and over and over. 

That's just it. You don't make assertions before you have all the facts... And evidence. And Trump dribbles rubbish constantly.

He doesn't need defending, he made the statements, he's an Adult.

My partner is an Ambulance officer, I was an Aged and Disability Carer years ago and now a Firefighter and an Emergency Services Officer, so the clinical aspect to all of this and it's effect on certain population demographics isn't exactly new to me... And even then something like a "Mild Flu" without an appropriate vaccine to protect the vulnerable would be absolutely devastating to various populations.

*****************

I feel like Nations with universal healthcare systems seem to be doing really well in handling this... And systems like the USA's seem to be all over the shop.



--::{PC Gaming Master Race}::--

"I feel like Nations with universal healthcare systems seem to be doing really well in handling this... And systems like the USA's seem to be all over the shop."

Uh how do you come to that conclusion when European powers sans Germany are the hardest hit nations on the globe per capita?



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newwil7l said:
"I feel like Nations with universal healthcare systems seem to be doing really well in handling this... And systems like the USA's seem to be all over the shop."

Uh how do you come to that conclusion when European powers sans Germany are the hardest hit nations on the globe per capita?

Don't worry, it's not the missing human decency that's causing the US so much trouble in this crisis. It's everything else.



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

Pemalite said:
JRPGfan said:

If new york is like most other places, the majority of the ICU cases are people on ventilators.
Right now thats only "4,376 patients in their ICUs" as someone said, earlier on.

Which is a far cry from the 40,000 worst case outcome their models showed.

However, alot of people have mild symptoms before, they turn bad enough they need a ventilator.
Think back a week or more ago, how many confirmed cases + hospitalised did New York state have then?

If this is the "peak" of new daily cases, and hospitalised,... then a week from now, should be the peak of ICU cases, and ventilators.
Then a week or two, following that, should be the "peak" of deaths.

I never took much stock of those numbers to start with.

Should be interesting to see how things unfold.

jason1637 said:

The church was closed the 2nd week in March. They probably got it elsewhere. 

Pretty sure some congregations are still open for business?

Either way, even if they "probably" got it elsewhere, they risked giving it to their entire Church... They are assisting in the spread, thoughts and prayers did nothing.

NightlyPoe said:

And at the time the statement was made, he was correct to anyone's knowledge.  The comment came before the first case of community spread was discovered the following day.  And during his "inaction" he instituted the travel ban from China, set up the task force, mentioned it in the State of the Union, and asked Congress to appropriate money.  Oh, and he took the time to speak about unprompted while in India.

Trump's comments during that time period were generally, "Maybe it will, maybe it won't, we'll be prepared" types of comments.  That's where all the "downplay" snipped quotes come from.  It's the type of crap you can get from piecing together any meandering comments from Trump.

And there weren't even "months" to do any denying.  Just two weeks after that first case was discovered, the whole country was shutting down.  So, please.  Just knock it off.  Trump's response wasn't perfect, but you're completely re-writing history and trying to cram extra months between the end of February and mid-March.  If anything, Trump did better than the average president because (as much as it grates to hear him use it over and over) he did issue that travel ban when most presidents would have bowed to China.  Without those travel restrictions, we probably get hit around the same time as Europe without the advanced warning of how bad it can be from Italy.

The Corona Virus was gaining traction in November, 2019. - That is when we should have started to take action the world over.
When did trump take action? That video was late Feb, 2020.

He asserted they had the virus "under control". - That the "numbers are smaller than just about anybody". - And here we are today, the complete opposite of his statements.
https://therecount.com/watch/daily-recount-april-5th-2020/2645643680

SpokenTruth said:

This is the problem.  When you don't know, don't say shit.

If data and information are limited, then you say data and information are limited.  Instead, Trump downplayed it.  Over and over and over. 

That's just it. You don't make assertions before you have all the facts... And evidence. And Trump dribbles rubbish constantly.

He doesn't need defending, he made the statements, he's an Adult.

My partner is an Ambulance officer, I was an Aged and Disability Carer years ago and now a Firefighter and an Emergency Services Officer, so the clinical aspect to all of this and it's effect on certain population demographics isn't exactly new to me... And even then something like a "Mild Flu" without an appropriate vaccine to protect the vulnerable would be absolutely devastating to various populations.

*****************

I feel like Nations with universal healthcare systems seem to be doing really well in handling this... And systems like the USA's seem to be all over the shop.

Just wanted to save this bolded bit for later.



Having military bases to cover the entire world costs trillions to maintain.
That is trillions less that could go into universal healthcare.
America does not have universal healthcare because it spends it on its military bases that span the globe.



SpokenTruth said:
The_Yoda said:

Just wanted to save this bolded bit for later.

Excellent.  It's a great criteria to hold a president accountable to, isn't it?

More a sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander situation.  Granted neither of you is a president but haven't you been speculating repeatedly throughout the thread?  Hasn't everyone been speculating ... that's all a model is speculation based on incomplete data ...  last I knew Incomplete data does not equate to fact.   I'm no fan of Trump but I don't like hypocrisy.  



NightlyPoe said:
SpokenTruth said:

You absolutely do not get it.

I absolutely do get it.  It's fun to take the president out of context and try to form a narrative.  Anyone actually LISTENING to most of those quotes would walk away with a different impression than the one you and the people who curated those quotes are trying to impart.

I've actually listened to a lot of these press conferences and interviews.  They don't match the tone you're trying to impart.  And using a *snip* to ignore the context doesn't help your cause.

These are all political games.  And I just don't have any time for your excuses.  If you really think this is a time of emergency, then put this kind of gotcha garbage aside and deal with the reality instead of scoring cheap points.

See, the thing is here that it is literally impossible to make the president look worse by taking his statements out of context. He has already established himself as one of the worst human beings on this planet before he even was president and has done nothing but prove it every single week over and over again. People like to think it's just partisan quarrels, but he is seen as what he is by pretty much everyone who is NOT partisan and has a set of eyes and a functioning brain.

So in this time of emergency people need to let out some frustrations and who would be better suited than the man who deserves it most?



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.