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SvennoJ on 06 April 2020
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LurkerJ said:

I would like it, if for once, I turn on the TV to watch a journalist asking questions that's in the mind of many of us and not the usual daily reporting. Some of mine:

  • The end point of the models is August, what happens after August? What happens when the measures are put in place are no longer followed, either because we're fatigued or because they're officially lifted?
  • Officials, including Boris, insist on using the term "delay" the spread. I have yet to hear an official statement talking about stopping the spread. Are we all going to be infected at some point? It seems like it's a realistic conclusion.
  • We're not being told what's going to happen in September because non of the models extend beyond August.
  • What are the metrics for success? What are we compromising for? It's understandable what the metrics for success in the first few months, but how about a year from now?
  • If modeling is all we have to base our decisions on, at what point do the models suggest that the amounts of deaths that are going to be prevented over the next year, not just the next 3 months, are worthy of shutting down the economy?
  • Where are the models about how wrecked the economy will be for each country 3 months from now?
  • What happens if we don't get more stimulus bills and what happens if we do? What will be the outcome a universal basic income is adopted at a global level?
  • Are the models taking into consideration the fact that they're local and whatever decisions that are based on them are not being implemented internationally? The states of the UNITED states of America and the members of the European UNION have taken different path in their attempt to deal with the current situation, which is a joke. Scientifically, literally everyone has to be on the same page for the lockdwon to work be effective but that's not the case. What are the consequences of that and what do we do about it? If such unions are failing to unite what shall we expect from the rest of the world?
  • This is going to be a years-long problem that can only end with a vaccine, isn't it?

So far we have China and South Korea who have things under 'control' (perhaps just information control on the part of China...)

China has draconian measures in place though. You have an app on your phone to tell you if you can go outside (temperature check etc) and all your movements and contact with other people is tracked just in case. Meanwhile the borders are closed to stop it from coming back in. Getting rid of it will only work with global cooperation, which won't happen. So either keep the borders closed, quarantine and test everyone coming in or be prepared for another flare up.

South Korea's economy is still halted.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/south-korea-tamps-down-coronavirus-but-economy-remains-paralyzed-11586180838

Any return to normal is risky
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/south-korea-s-return-normal-interrupted-uptick-coronavirus-cases-n1176021

With the slight upticks, it's clear that South Korea hasn't fully contained the virus yet. But local clusters aren't the only problem. South Korea is simultaneously coping with an influx of travelers from Europe and the U.S., which has resulted in more than 518 imported cases.


The metrics for success, who knows. For now it's not collapsing the healthcare system and minimizing the death toll. The problem with exponential spread is that i might feel like too much when you suppress the new cases to under 100 a day, yet it can grow fast. The unmitigated rate of spread is 10x per 15 days, 100x in a month, 10,000x every 60 days.

Success would be an easy, quick result, mass produced test, that can find the virus before people get contagious. No clue if that's possible. Otherwise it's waiting for a vaccine or mass produced anti bodies to fight the virus, a cure for those that need it.

Yeah, it's going to be years before we're done with this. It's out in the world, it's not going way. We'll have to find a way to 'live' with it until a vaccine is ready and then it will still be a problem in countries that can't afford to vaccinate enough people to stop the spread. But we might get a situation where 'poor' countries have achieved herd immunity (at immense cost to the population) through inability to contain the spread, while the first world is still running around in circles.

What we need to know is, will you actually be immune to secondary infection after getting it once.
If we have a vaccine, how long will it be effective.
More immediately, can children spread the virus (seems likely for now) When is re-opening schools safe.
Is there a way to kill the airborne virus, a specific wavelength of ultraviolet light perhaps
https://www.digitaltrends.com/news/can-uv-light-kill-coronavirus/


Where the economy is going to surge is in Telecommunication. Online schooling, working from home, virtual meetings, online shopping.