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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

Nighthawk117 said:
vivster said:

I am praising Germany's robust social and health system, consumer and worker protection, low violent crime rate paired with political and economic strength, which provide the perfect environment to lead a secure and healthy life. Pointing out singular things that are not perfect won't change anything about that.

If Germany is doing so great, then why are thousands of US military personnel over there protecting your German asses?

They are there, protecting american intrests.

Miltary bases there, are so they have quick reactions, and be able to deploy fast in the middle east ect.  Keep a "eye" on russia, and whatnot.
It has very little, to near nothing to do, with protecting germany.



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SpokenTruth said:
haxxiy said:

In the Northern Hemisphere, 90% of Flu cases typically occur during a 14-week span between late December and mid March, so it's more like 370 deaths a day with peaks around perhaps 740 - 1,110 or so for an average season.

Accordingly, if 70% of the population was infected with the Flu in a few months, instead of some 10%, that'd be 2,590 and 5,600 - 7,000 deaths a day respectively, and some ~ 2.5 million hospitalizations.

Why the hypothetical? The flu won't infect 70% because that's not realistic infection rate. 

But let's say we take your worst realistic daily rate of 1,100.  We just had 4,373 die from Covid-19 today.  That's 4x more deaths than your worst realistic case.  And it's going to get much higher.  

How many must die before you will take this seriously?  Give me a number.  Does it have to kill someone you know?

I'm talking about the US only. Globaly, considering the population of the northern hemisphere where you have significant winters, it would be ten times higher. 4,373 people didn't die of Covid in the US today, did they? It might get to that, but it's not there yet.

Besides, I was pointing out an infection that would spread more or less the same as Covid would before herd immunity. It wouldn't have to be worse than the average flu to have very large numbers of daily deaths. You just need the population not to have cross immunity to it as we have to the over ~ 200 influenzavirus strains that are out there.

Also, lol @ your last argument. Is appealing to emotion, not data, your last resort? Who even said I'm not taking it seriously? Not to mention, since when whatever I think about the disease would affect whether someone I know dies or lives from it? Or do you believe I'm telling people to break the lockdown and lick doorknobs and toilet seats? Or maybe that my opinion, or your imagination of my opinion, affects how their immune systems would respond in some weird cosmic karma way.

What a lame "gotcha" if I ever seen one.



 

 

 

 

 

Chicho said:
JRPGfan said:

I wish the danish goverment gave out numbers for recovery / daily recovered, but they arnt.
We had +182 cases today.

Follow up:

From week 11 (ended march 16th?) we had 917 confirmed infected.
Out of these 897 recovered, and 20 died, and 3 are still on ventilators.

^ these are old numbers (not current ones, but ones following from keeping track of those infected upto march 16th).

Finally we wont have to look at that "1" placement holder.



What a surprise, the numbers are starting to slow down thanks to extreme measures and we're back to, it's not as bad as the flu lol. When did the flu ever kill 2.2 million people in the US in one year...

@NightlyPoe Did Social distancing in the US start on March 11th? That's news to me. March 11th is when Trump suspended travel from 26 European countries (excluding the UK) Nothing about social distancing on US soil yet. Lock down orders started on March 22nd
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-pandemic-timeline-history-major-events-2020-3
It's only been 1.5 weeks since half of Americans have been under stay at home orders.

Now it has been extended until the end of April
https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2020/0330/Trump-extends-social-distancing-rules-states-push-quarantines
https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2020/04/01/us-covid-19-cases-could-peak-around-720k-as-social-distancing-guidelines-extended/#3e020d336dd1
Expected to rise to 720K cases and 100k deaths with the current measures in place.



JRPGfan said:

From week 11 (ended march 16th?) we had 917 confirmed infected.
Out of these 897 recovered, and 20 died, and 3 are still on ventilators.

^ these are old numbers (not current ones, but ones following from keeping track of those infected upto march 16th).

Finally we wont have to look at that "1" placement holder.

This is what they have now



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Yikes, Spain and France really surging in Europe. Has Italy peaked or we have to wait longer to determine that?



It seems US will reach the sadly mark of 25k+ daily new cases today :(



PortisheadBiscuit said:
Yikes, Spain and France really surging in Europe. Has Italy peaked or we have to wait longer to determine that?

Judgeing from the "new daily cases" + "active cases"... it seems that way.
Sadly dont think the same is true for "deaths" yet.

As long as italy keeps up with the shutdown, social distanceing ect, numbers should continue to drop.

I think Spain has it worse than italy.... with italy it seems like things are slowing down at a noticable rate.
Same isnt yet true for spain.

*Edit:
If we re talking about surges.
look at the UK  (yesterday 25,150 cases, and today +4,324 new ones)

Also they were slow to lockdown schools, and they deem anyone that cannot work from home, as a "key worker" and thus basically have everyone working. A week or two from now, I bet you see the rate of spread, drops much much slower in the UK compaired to alot of other places.

Also they have shut down alot of trains (tube/subways), while way to many people are still useing them to get to work.



^ above is from 1-2days ago in the UK.
As far as I know, situation is still like that.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 01 April 2020

kazuyamishima said:
It seems US will reach the sadly mark of 25k+ daily new cases today :(

Yesterday it was +24,742 new cases.
Assumeing even just very slight growth rates, and testing of newly arriveing people at hospitals, yes today should be over 25k.



JRPGfan said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:
Yikes, Spain and France really surging in Europe. Has Italy peaked or we have to wait longer to determine that?

Judgeing from the "new daily cases" + "active cases"... it seems that way.
Sadly dont think the same is true for "deaths" yet.

As long as italy keeps up with the shutdown, social distanceing ect, numbers should continue to drop.

I think Spain has it worse than italy.... with italy it seems like things are slowing down at a noticable rate.
Same isnt yet true for spain.

Accroding to Wikepedia (so could be wrong) Spain issued a nationwide lock down on March 14th.
Italy did on March 9th (Lombardy on March 8th) and reached its growth peak on the 21st.
So Spain should have reached its growth peak on the 26th. (Looks like it on the graphs)

Deaths lag up to 25 days behind though, average 5 days incubation time, then average 20 days from onset to death.
China and Italy both had their growth peak 12 days after lock down.
China's active cases peaked 13 days after the growth peak, estimate April 3rd for Italy, April 8th for Spain.
Daily deaths started to significantly decline 20 days after the growth peak, estimate April 10th for Italy, April 15th for Spain.