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SvennoJ on 01 April 2020
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JRPGfan said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:
Yikes, Spain and France really surging in Europe. Has Italy peaked or we have to wait longer to determine that?

Judgeing from the "new daily cases" + "active cases"... it seems that way.
Sadly dont think the same is true for "deaths" yet.

As long as italy keeps up with the shutdown, social distanceing ect, numbers should continue to drop.

I think Spain has it worse than italy.... with italy it seems like things are slowing down at a noticable rate.
Same isnt yet true for spain.

Accroding to Wikepedia (so could be wrong) Spain issued a nationwide lock down on March 14th.
Italy did on March 9th (Lombardy on March 8th) and reached its growth peak on the 21st.
So Spain should have reached its growth peak on the 26th. (Looks like it on the graphs)

Deaths lag up to 25 days behind though, average 5 days incubation time, then average 20 days from onset to death.
China and Italy both had their growth peak 12 days after lock down.
China's active cases peaked 13 days after the growth peak, estimate April 3rd for Italy, April 8th for Spain.
Daily deaths started to significantly decline 20 days after the growth peak, estimate April 10th for Italy, April 15th for Spain.