RKI (Robert Koch Institute) just announced that 1.000 people here (Germany) are on intensive station / critical condition. They expect 70.000 official positive tested people at the end of the week. But they also say that they think the real number of infected people is 10x of that.
Athaba said:
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Barozi said:
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I've said numberous times that avg. incubation time is 12days.... thats apparently not correct.
Supposedly its like ~6 days only.
Sorry for spreading bad info, before.
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JRPGfan said:
I've said numberous times that avg. incubation time is 12days.... thats apparently not correct. Supposedly its like ~6 days only. Sorry for spreading bad info, before. |
@JRPGfan (quoting doesn't work anymore on Firefox?) The officials stats are R0 of 2.2 and mean incubation time of 5.2 days, which is how I get to an expected growth factor of 1.16 for this virus. 1.16 ^ 5.2 = 2.2, in average 5.2 days every case has turned into 2.2 new cases.
However since it is 1 to 14 days, lock downs take 2 weeks to stop the growth. Then you also have to take into account that test results lag behind. Most still don't get tested until showing symptoms, after their incubation period, and test results can also take 3 days to come back. That last part is actually positive since some of the data belongs to the past, thus any observed trend reversal already happened a few days ago.
In China and Italy it took 12 days to reach a daily growth peak after total lock down.
| SpokenTruth said: Any of you that are wanting to ease restriction so the economy can return are resigning people to death. If the death rate is 2.5% (we won't truly know until after the pandemic is over) and you know 100 people, you just accepted the death of approx 3 of them. So can you list them out right now which 3 you're ready to sacrifice so the rich can stop losing money? And if you know 200 people, pick 6. Look at your friends lists. Have 1,000 friends across various social media and forums, pick which 25 have to die. And by the way....some of you must pick yourself as one of the dead. You're still part of that 2.5%. It's all for the greater good of the rich, right? Can't have billionaires losing millions right now, can we? |
The rich will be fine after this... since they are rich after all. The businesses that are really going to be destroyed by this are those belonging to middle class people... or do you only view the world as business owner = rich, employee = poor?
Thought I'd post this as there are upsides to a bad situation:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vsjbFTem_bg
Good to see this site is still going 
I compared the growth between China, USA and Europe
The time scale at the bottom is for the USA,
The USA is 10 days behind Europe and 47 days behind China in the above graph
The thick line is the average growth rate, the thin lower line the avg daily death toll.
Europe was adding 23K cases a day on average on March 23rd, average growth factor of 1.06 and is slowly flattening out
The USA was adding 10.2K cases a day on average on March 23rd, average growth factor of 1.25
Europe was at 10.7K cases a day on March 16th with an average growth factor of 1.16
The USA is catching up to Europe, more needs to be done to slow the growth in the USA.
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