Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[SvennoJ]

@JRPGfan (quoting doesn't work anymore on Firefox?) The officials stats are R0 of 2.2 and mean incubation time of 5.2 days, which is how I get to an expected growth factor of 1.16 for this virus. 1.16 ^ 5.2 = 2.2, in average 5.2 days every case has turned into 2.2 new cases.

However since it is 1 to 14 days, lock downs take 2 weeks to stop the growth. Then you also have to take into account that test results lag behind. Most still don't get tested until showing symptoms, after their incubation period, and test results can also take 3 days to come back. That last part is actually positive since some of the data belongs to the past, thus any observed trend reversal already happened a few days ago.

In China and Italy it took 12 days to reach a daily growth peak after total lock down.