2021 still wont be very interesting, PS4 sold just under 1 million in its first year and there really isnt any reason to expect PS5 to do notably better than that.

NSW did about 4.5 million in 2019, a 10% decline in 2020 followed by a 25% decline in 2021 would put it around 3 million so it wouldnt be unlikely for NSW to sell 3x as much as PS5 in 2021.

I'd say there's a decent chance PS5 performs notably worse in Japan than PS4, that seems to be the trend, with PS4 looking likely to sell less than PS3 despite having much better Japanese support with a mainline DQ and MH.

Yep, 1 million for PS5 was my best case scenario while 3 million for NSW is my worst case scenario.

So the pacman was completed and this year, it will close it's mouth entirely

With the information we have right now, I'd say there's 99.9% chances the ps5 will do considerably worse than ps4 in japan. Ps4 will end behind the ps3 even though it had everything going for it. From lower starting price, better japanese lineup and little competition. Now the ps5 will face the post peak years of switch followed by the switch 2.

Switch was already at 93% in Japan this past week. If PS5 launches late in Japan like PS4 did, and is region free so that Japan just imports foreign consoles thus driving PS4 sales down even further while not counting for Japanese hardware sales, I think the pacman might just close it's mouth entirely before the holidays even get here.

Yeah it seems most likely that the trend will continue. Japanese third parties will throw their all behind PS5, but a system that can only be played at home just doesn't seem to be a good fit for the modern Japanese lifestyle, plus it will miss out on so many of the games they're crazy about like Pokemon, Splatoon, Smash, etc.

The crazy thing is that the evergreens on the Switch (i.e., Pokemon, Mario, Zelda, Mario Kart, Smash, and maybe even Splatoon 2) will have the potential to continue maintaining solid sales throughout 2020 and maybe 2021.

As long as people are buying the Switch, they'll be buying Mario Kart 8 and Zelda. That's my opinion at least. In fact, I think sales of both games will continue far beyond what is considered the lifespan of the console.

Mario Kart 8 on Switch has become a very popular game at the workplace, and it is enduring. Even when its popularity wanes, it will have resurgences. And Breath of the Wild is kind of one of those games where there are people who have played it, and people who are going to play it. It's a very widely appealing game, and acted as the killer app that skyrocketed Switch immediately, despite an early anemic line-up, otherwise.

To show the potential longevity of Mario Kart 8. It's the successor to Mario Kart Wii and Mario Kart 7 combined. Mario Kart 7 sold 1.21 million units int he last fiscal year, almost 8 years after its release. Mario Kart Wii released in 2008, and sold 40,000 units in 2019. While the Wii is dead, Mario Kart Wii is not quite. I can see Mario Kart 8 Deluxe still selling 75-100K per month a decade from now. It wouldn't surprise me if Breath of the Wild was still doing 20-50K.