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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will the switch outsell the ps4?

 

When will the switch outsell the ps4?

Second half of 2022 24 9.02%
 
First half of 2023 21 7.89%
 
Second half of 2023 32 12.03%
 
First half of 2024 15 5.64%
 
Second half of 2024 16 6.02%
 
First half of 2025 7 2.63%
 
Second half of 2025 5 1.88%
 
Later than above 2 0.75%
 
Never 144 54.14%
 
Total:266
curl-6 said:
LGBTDBZBBQ said:

That's gold, but this one specific part is always bothering me till this day " Most of the most iconic Nintendo gaming franchises have already launched in the console " why do these people keep pointing at this shit year after year still is a mystery to me. Did they think all of those titles will stop selling or something?

I remember people saying this crap as far back as 2017, that "they've already used Mario, Zelda, Splatoon and Mario Kart, so their big guns are used up and it's only gonna go downhill from here."

At this point we are starting to see third party big guns like Monster Hunter Rise.  On all of Nintendo's most successful consoles they fire a lot of big guns early and then third parties do a lot of the work for the second half of the console's life.  With third parties firing their guns, Nintendo doesn't really need to have many big guns left.



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curl-6 said:

With Sony already struggling to meet demand for PS5, it makes sense for them to switch over their finite production capacity to their new system instead of prolonging the PS4. We're already seeing this with the discontinuation of all but one model in Japan.

It surely makes a lot of sense to stop making umpteen models just for a market where PS4 nowadays sells less than 13k in the best week of the holidays, but it could make sense too to unify the production in a Super Slim model, with a robust price cut, to cater to a market segment that always exixts and that doesn't want or can't spend the price recently launched consoles ask for, neither it's ready to spend a price too high for an old one.
A Super Slim requires cooler and less power-hungry chips though, so if future planned PS4 production doesn't justify a new die-shrunk version of the APU, PS4 latest years will just consist of a production limited to the best selling current SKU, like already decided for Japan, or at most the best selling two elsewhere.



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Alby_da_Wolf said:
curl-6 said:

With Sony already struggling to meet demand for PS5, it makes sense for them to switch over their finite production capacity to their new system instead of prolonging the PS4. We're already seeing this with the discontinuation of all but one model in Japan.

It surely makes a lot of sense to stop making umpteen models just for a market where PS4 nowadays sells less than 13k in the best week of the holidays, but it could make sense too to unify the production in a Super Slim model, with a robust price cut, to cater to a market segment that always exixts and that doesn't want or can't spend the price recently launched consoles ask for, neither it's ready to spend a price too high for an old one.
A Super Slim requires cooler and less power-hungry chips though, so if future planned PS4 production doesn't justify a new die-shrunk version of the APU, PS4 latest years will just consist of a production limited to the best selling current SKU, like already decided for Japan, or at most the best selling two elsewhere.

The problem for this is that it would need a 7nm process, and those production capacities are hopelessy overloaded, just look at the shortages in the GPU market. By the time 7nm would become viable again the PS4 will be pretty much dead already.



Late 2022 if goes big this year, and i mean BIG.



Eagle367 said:
colafitte said:

Switch is never going to top PS4...., is never going to be the best selling Nintendo hardware ever....., it's probably never going to be even the best Nintendo "homeconsole"  sold ever either....

Some of you keep living in a world of dreams when it comes to Switch sales....I was realistic during 2018 (and i was right in my predictions) and i left myself been fooled by some of you during 2019 thinking Switch was going to surpass 20M in 2019 and in the end it was a mistake. Time to go back to my senses in 2020.

Switch is going to sell less this year than in 2019. It's going to be affected by next gen console launches from November and December this year and so on (and i don' care what people said even if is someone of Nintendo, it will affect the console in one way or another), and it's still a question if it's going to reach 100M lifetime.

Most of the most iconic Nintendo gaming franchises have already launched in the console. The best years of the console library are probably already behind. Without heavy 3rd party support it's going to be impossible to keep the pace. And i don't expect any heavy price cuts either.

We already know Switch sold to consumers this (rounding numbers, it's not 100% accurate numbers, but to get a general idea):

13M by the end of 2017

29M by the end of 2018 (around 16M sold during 2018)

48M by the end of 2019 (around 19M sold during 2019)

And I expect something like this from next few years:

65M by the end of 2020 (around 17M sold during 2020)

77M by the end of 2021 (around 12M sold during 2021)

87M by the end of 2022 (around 10M sold during 2022)

95M by the end of 2023 (around 8M sold during 2023)

Maybe some millions more after that, but who knows if enough to reach 100M lifetime.

This is my optimistic prediction (i considered Switch selling around 85-90M before Lite was announced, but i guess a 100$ cheaper version will help add 10M sales more), in fact, because i won't be surprised if it drops even more after 2020. In conclusion, if it reaches 100M lifetime i will be surprised and i repeat again and again: it will be a monumental success considering the console sold at a higher price than Wii and had barely any 3rd party AAA support. But by that time we will already know that PS4 sold around 125-130M lifetime, so no..., is not going to outsell PS4, sorry.

Wii was around 57M units sold to consumers after 36 months (and its 36th month is end of November 2009, because if we count the gap after 37 or 38 months, the gap is even greater). Switch is going to be around what? 52M?. The real question still is if Switch is going to outsell Wii instead. People should not aim that high yet because Switch hasn't proved yet that it can still sell a lot after year 3-4 of the console life, and except NDS, any Nintendo console has done that. There's nothing pointing out that Switch will avoid dropping in sales like Wii or 3DS did..., so we should be cautious about such predictions for Switch.

But 2020 is going to give us a very definitive idea of what the future holds up for Switch, for sales and its games, so we'll see....

The more you read, the funnier it gets

Oh yeah, Colafitte and his "I was right, I told you so, you all need to apologize to me" he kept during 6 months, forgot about that one



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At this point, the only thing that could prevent Switch outselling PS4 is Nintendo. My guess is in two years time, so 2023 first half, unless in that time, Nintendo introduces something even better and prematurely discontinue/cannibalize the Switch, like GBA when the DS came out. Also, Sony is known for keeping its most successful products forever on the market, especially in ROTW, so it will boil down to the length of the snail race.

Last edited by Kristof81 - 6 days ago

I'm sad that the people who argued with me about the PS4 selling 150m have stopped posting so I can't rub it in their faces.



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Cassiel said:

2nd half of 2022 at most. PS4 will be done at 120m at most

Are you a time traveler that you knew what would happen one year ago???



SilenceDeadly said:

Late 2022 if goes big this year, and i mean BIG.

Switch seems to be on track to have a pretty big 2021.

It's already getting Monster Hunter Rise and 3D World Deluxe + Bowser's Fury just in the first three months of the year, a Pro model is heavily rumored, and momentum from their mammoth 2020 should carry over as well as there's no extended early year drought to wear it off.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

colafitte said:

Wow, it seems I triggered all the nintendo fanbase here.

Dont worry guys, you will survive if someone here doesn't agree with you with a stupid Nintendo prediction...

And I dont give a shit if you dont agree with me anymore. If I am wrong all the nintendo fans will be coming at me and if I am right there will be silence and lack of any kind of recognition. There is no point in wasting any time on this...

It was a mistake, like always, posting in a Nintendo thread.

I think I am starting to not getting any fun in this forum. I'm pretty sure I will be right in what I am saying and that's it. Feel free to disagree all you want. Keep living in your own bubble forever.

I think I'm going to abandon this site forever. Not worth the effort. I wonder how those permanent bans work...

Please, dont waste any effort answering this comment, because there wont be any more replies.

He was so in his feelings, and soooo wrong LOL!!