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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4/XBO/NS - 2019 vs 2020; WEEK FIFTY-THREE!! GAME! SET! MATCH!

Well, I was hoping for a more conservative 28M, and looks like that seems to be possible still, even without week 53.



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PAOerfulone said:

Week 52 Breakdown:

PS4: Down in all regions
Xbox One: Down in all regions
Nintendo Switch: Up in all regions

Week 52 has officially been posted. Normally this would be the final week of the year. I'd be wrapping up this thread and moving on to the next one.
However, we still have ONE WEEK LEFT TO GO.
This year, we do have a 53rd week to take into account, and whatever comes of that week will give us our final yearly totals and set the stage for 2021.

So, we'll do it one more time and then once Week 53 comes and goes is when I will formally wrap up this comparison and move on to the next one, which I have big plans for.
As of now, we can see that the stock has severely hit all three consoles more than anticipated. I had full expectations that this week would see the numbers shoot higher compared to last week, but it was rather the opposite, which effectively kills the Switch's chances at 30 million, barring MASSIVE adjustments after Nintendo's next Financial figures which reveal VGChartz estimates being severely undertracked, but I wouldn't put much stock in that happening.

Thank you @PAOerfulone for your awesome work, I was also hoping to see this week increase in sales, but we can't let that take away from the fact that 1.2M Sales in a single week is insanely good. 

I am very curious to know what you have planned, and if there is any way I could help you out.



PAOerfulone said:

Week 52 Breakdown:

PS4: Down in all regions
Xbox One: Down in all regions
Nintendo Switch: Up in all regions

Week 52 has officially been posted. Normally this would be the final week of the year. I'd be wrapping up this thread and moving on to the next one.
However, we still have ONE WEEK LEFT TO GO.
This year, we do have a 53rd week to take into account, and whatever comes of that week will give us our final yearly totals and set the stage for 2021.

So, we'll do it one more time and then once Week 53 comes and goes is when I will formally wrap up this comparison and move on to the next one, which I have big plans for.
As of now, we can see that the stock has severely hit all three consoles more than anticipated. I had full expectations that this week would see the numbers shoot higher compared to last week, but it was rather the opposite, which effectively kills the Switch's chances at 30 million, barring MASSIVE adjustments after Nintendo's next Financial figures which reveal VGChartz estimates being severely undertracked, but I wouldn't put much stock in that happening.

Yeah, I still had hopes that Switch could break the DS's annual record.  With the 53rd week it looked like it was going to be close for a while.  But this week shows that supplies have reached their limits.  Christmas week was the lowest holiday week this year.  

At any rate, the Switch still broke the Wii's annual record for home console sales, and that is pretty damn impressive in itself.



PAOerfulone said:

Week 51 Breakdown:

PS4: Down in all regions.

Xbox One: Down in all regions.

Nintendo Switch: Down in the U.S., Europe, and Japan; Up in the Rest of the World; Down overall.

We've got just 2 weeks left for this year and the end is in sight. So here's what we might see in the finish line:

Final Year Projections:

PlayStation 4: 8,921,070 + Week 53

Xbox One: 3,010,489 + Week 53

Nintendo Switch: 27,720,032 + Week 53

That's quite interesting numbers. Looking back at 2020 sales prediction thread, I had the following:

Switch - 20.5m
PS4 - 10.5m
Xbox One - 3.2m
PS5 - 5m
XBSX - 3m

Seems like I overestimated every console except Switch, which I on the other hand underestimated by a lot. Makes me really wonder what numbers could we see if COVID boost didn't happen. Most likely PS4 and Xbox One would have sold even worse than what they actually did.

P.S. I find it actually impressive that 3DS still managed to sell at least 500k units this year with no big software release at all.



 

PAOerfulone said:

Week 52 Breakdown:

PS4: Down in all regions
Xbox One: Down in all regions
Nintendo Switch: Up in all regions

Week 52 has officially been posted. Normally this would be the final week of the year. I'd be wrapping up this thread and moving on to the next one.
However, we still have ONE WEEK LEFT TO GO.
This year, we do have a 53rd week to take into account, and whatever comes of that week will give us our final yearly totals and set the stage for 2021.

So, we'll do it one more time and then once Week 53 comes and goes is when I will formally wrap up this comparison and move on to the next one, which I have big plans for.
As of now, we can see that the stock has severely hit all three consoles more than anticipated. I had full expectations that this week would see the numbers shoot higher compared to last week, but it was rather the opposite, which effectively kills the Switch's chances at 30 million, barring MASSIVE adjustments after Nintendo's next Financial figures which reveal VGChartz estimates being severely undertracked, but I wouldn't put much stock in that happening.

Almost done, one extra week to go!

Speaking of extra, will you make a Switch/PS5/XS for this year? Or will you wait  a year since PS5 and XS have no previous year sales to compare to (though maybe you could compare them to PS4/XBO first year?)?



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;)



AND THAT'S IT!!!

Apologies for the extended waiting time, there were PLENTY of adjustments to be made: (The Xbox One adjustments went as far back as the first week of 2019 - So that was fun.) We are at the finish line! It is the 53rd and Final week of 2020! And these are our final results:

PlayStation 4: 8,754,379 units (US - 2,372,519; EU - 4,386,302; JP - 560,311; ROTW - 1,335,237)

Xbox One: 3,156,542 units (US - 1,759,975; EU - 679,115; JP - 3,282; ROTW - 718,170)

Nintendo Switch: 28,256,119 units (US - 9,367,556; EU - 7,359,439; JP - 6,383,954; ROTW - 5,144,170)

The PlayStation 4 and Xbox One, officially in the twilights of their lifespans, came in at 8.8 and 3.2 million respectively. Their declines were accelerated by the Sony and Microsoft shifting focus towards their next gen successors and sacrificing their stock in the process. As a result, I believe they're going to experience even sharper drops than the PS3 and 360 experienced towards the ends of their lives.

The Nintendo Switch puts a wrap on one of the greatest single years for a video game system in history, selling around 28.3 million units, surpassing the Nintendo Wii's peak year of ~24 million in 2008, and coming in 3rd all time for any system behind the DS' back to back peak years of 29.3 and 29.5 million in 2007 and 2008. It also becomes the 1st system to surpass 6 million units sold in Japan since the DS sold ~7.2 million units in 2007. Nintendo is literally competing with themselves. (So much for them going 3rd party.) 2021 is gearing to be another monstrous year for the Switch and Nintendo. How monstrous, especially compared to 2020, remains to be seen.



And that's a wrap!

This concludes the 2020 comparison thread!
Further adjustments to the 2020 numbers will be made in the upcoming 2021 Comparison thread, once I set that up. So look forward to that in the coming days.
Thank you to everyone who has followed this thread closely throughout the year and the interest in these comparisons. The tracking, comparisons, fantasizing of future numbers, and most of all, the discussions, are what makes it all worth it. And I am very much looking forward to what this year has in store with the 2021 thread.

Until then: ¡Adios!

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Last edited by PAOerfulone - on 18 January 2021

Great thread. Came a bit a short of the historical landmark this year, but against most early expectations the Switch is still more than thriving going into 2021. The 30M dream is still alive and the next thread should be even better.

Nice that Xbox One should at least pass 50M lifetime but don't see much juice left for either of the legacy twins.



Great thread as always.

Really, VGChartz should archive those to have an easy way finding them back later on, as coming back to them and compare is just so useful sometimes.