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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4/XBO/NS - 2019 vs 2020; WEEK FIFTY-THREE!! GAME! SET! MATCH!

Week 48 Breakdown:

All 3 Systems:
Down in all regions.

Black Friday week has arrived. And this year finds all three systems are down from last year. And the drops were especially noticeable with the PS4 and Xbox One which have now entered hospice. And supply shortages have shot the Switch the past few weeks and Nintendo has struggled to keep up with demand.

Final Year Projections:

PlayStation 4: 9,530,048 units

Xbox One: 3,484,103 units

Nintendo Switch: 30,075,278 units



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PAOerfulone said:

Week 48 Breakdown:

All 3 Systems:
Down in all regions.

Black Friday week has arrived. And this year finds all three systems are down from last year. And the drops were especially noticeable with the PS4 and Xbox One which have now entered hospice. And supply shortages have shot the Switch the past few weeks and Nintendo has struggled to keep up with demand.

Final Year Projections:

PlayStation 4: 9,530,048 units

Xbox One: 3,484,103 units

Nintendo Switch: 30,075,278 units

Switch numbers make me smile! Insane run and it´ll only get better! Boom!



PAOerfulone said:

Week 48 Breakdown:

All 3 Systems:
Down in all regions.

Black Friday week has arrived. And this year finds all three systems are down from last year. And the drops were especially noticeable with the PS4 and Xbox One which have now entered hospice. And supply shortages have shot the Switch the past few weeks and Nintendo has struggled to keep up with demand.

Final Year Projections:

PlayStation 4: 9,530,048 units

Xbox One: 3,484,103 units

Nintendo Switch: 30,075,278 units

Are you basing that on 52 weeks or 53? Just curious! I really hope switch breaks the 30 million! 



Just 52.



Week 49 Breakdown:
PS4 and Xbox One: Down in all regions.
Nintendo Switch: Up in all regions.

Final Year Projections (52-week):
PlayStation 4 - 9,325,878 units
Xbox One - 3,294,184 units
Nintendo Switch - 29,294,487 units

With Week 49 now in the books and MORE adjustments for the Switch, and not for the better, it's looking more and more like 30 million might be out of reach even with the 53rd week.



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I dunno, as cool as it would be for Switch to top 30 million for 2020, I can't see it happening at this point, I feel we're on track more for 28 million, which is still amazing.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 18 December 2020

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

PAOerfulone said:

Week 49 Breakdown:
PS4 and Xbox One: Down in all regions.
Nintendo Switch: Up in all regions.

Final Year Projections (52-week):
PlayStation 4 - 9,325,878 units
Xbox One - 3,294,184 units
Nintendo Switch - 29,294,487 units

With Week 49 now in the books and MORE adjustments for the Switch, and not for the better, it's looking more and more like 30 million might be out of reach even with the 53rd week.

Hi @PAOerfulone First of all, Thank you for this amazing thread, it is a lot of work and it is cool to see it. 

I was wondering how you do your projections. I have a couple of questions.

1) How many weeks are going to be counted towards December this year? As far as I can tell, only weeks that end (on saturday) inside a month count, therefore only weeks ending on Dec 5,12,19 and 26 will count, the one ending on Jan 2 will count towards next year. Is that correct?

2) I noticed tiny discrepancies in three different weeks, these are weeks that recently got revised so that might have caused the difference:

WeekVGChartzPostDiff
26395987395387600
46618876618176700
47736541736941-400

3) My best guess is that you are currently taking the % de switch is ahead of itself from 2019 (about 52%) and you are multiplying that by how much the switch did in 2019's last three weeks.

It is really hard for a console to maintain these high margins during holiday season. When comparing 2019 and 2018 the switch was able to increase by about 9% 

Last 3 weeks
Week20182019Diff
-21,319,351       1,369,224104%
-11,452,755       1,554,176107%
Last774,701          926,543120%
3WeekTotal 3,546,807       3,849,943109%

If the switch is able to mantain a 9% increase from 2019, then the last three weeks should be around 4,178,987 units for a total of 27,623,336 in 2020.

4) Just as an example, on september the switch was up almost 80% from 2019, and now it is about 52%

Once again, thank you for a wonderful post and I will be watching closely to see what ends up happening.



dmillos32 said:

Hi @PAOerfulone First of all, Thank you for this amazing thread, it is a lot of work and it is cool to see it. 

I was wondering how you do your projections. I have a couple of questions.

1) How many weeks are going to be counted towards December this year? As far as I can tell, only weeks that end (on saturday) inside a month count, therefore only weeks ending on Dec 5,12,19 and 26 will count, the one ending on Jan 2 will count towards next year. Is that correct?

2) I noticed tiny discrepancies in three different weeks, these are weeks that recently got revised so that might have caused the difference:

WeekVGChartzPostDiff
26395987395387600
46618876618176700
47736541736941-400

3) My best guess is that you are currently taking the % de switch is ahead of itself from 2019 (about 52%) and you are multiplying that by how much the switch did in 2019's last three weeks.

It is really hard for a console to maintain these high margins during holiday season. When comparing 2019 and 2018 the switch was able to increase by about 9% 

Last 3 weeks
Week20182019Diff
-21,319,351       1,369,224104%
-11,452,755       1,554,176107%
Last774,701          926,543120%
3WeekTotal 3,546,807       3,849,943109%

If the switch is able to mantain a 9% increase from 2019, then the last three weeks should be around 4,178,987 units for a total of 27,623,336 in 2020.

4) Just as an example, on september the switch was up almost 80% from 2019, and now it is about 52%

Once again, thank you for a wonderful post and I will be watching closely to see what ends up happening.

Hey @dmillos32, I see you're a new user who just recently joined. In case it hasn't been done already, allow me to be the first to say to you "Welcome to VGChartz!"

And thank you for following this thread and for your support and enthusiasm!

To answer your questions:

1) 5 weeks will be counted to December. I am well aware of the slippery slope of that Dec.-Jan. week where we go into the new year and "Will that count for this year or next year?" The key in that is to look for how many days of that week are in this year, and how many are in the next. For example: Since this particular week in question ends on Jan. 2nd, that means that week will include 2 days of the next year, while the other 5 days will be from this year. As a result, that week will be counted for this year, making this December a 5 week period. That's why this year is a 53-week year as opposed to a 52-week one.

2) Thank you for pointing out those discrepancies. When you have to go back and update ALL the numbers for 4 different regions dating back to the beginning of the year, there will be a few weeks here and there that will slip through the cracks. So thank you for catching that for me. I just made those changes and updates.

3) What I do is I take last year's sales, how much it sold up to the current week last year, and divide it by its final yearly total. From there, I get a percentage. I take the current yearly total for THIS year and divide it by that percentage. And that's where I get the projections for this year.

For example: Let's look at the Switch: At this point last year, the Switch sold 15,428,595 units. So I take that stat and I divide it by 19,278,788 units, which is it's final yearly total. So, it looks like this:

15,428,595/19,278,788 = .8002886385 (80.02886385%)

Now, I take its current yearly total for this year. As of this moment, the Switch has sold 23,445,249 units in 2020 thus far. So, I'll take that and divide it by the percentage:

23,445,249/.8002886385

And that leads me to the current projection of: 29,295,991 units.

And those projections are ALWAYS changing. Every time we get new numbers and I update the tables or make adjustments, that projection changes. And as the year progresses, we get closer and closer to the actual total to where we can make a ballpark estimate.



PAOerfulone said:

Hey @dmillos32, I see you're a new user who just recently joined. In case it hasn't been done already, allow me to be the first to say to you "Welcome to VGChartz!"

And thank you for following this thread and for your support and enthusiasm!

To answer your questions:

1) 5 weeks will be counted to December. I am well aware of the slippery slope of that Dec.-Jan. week where we go into the new year and "Will that count for this year or next year?" The key in that is to look for how many days of that week are in this year, and how many are in the next. For example: Since this particular week in question ends on Jan. 2nd, that means that week will include 2 days of the next year, while the other 5 days will be from this year. As a result, that week will be counted for this year, making this December a 5 week period. That's why this year is a 53-week year as opposed to a 52-week one.

2) Thank you for pointing out those discrepancies. When you have to go back and update ALL the numbers for 4 different regions dating back to the beginning of the year, there will be a few weeks here and there that will slip through the cracks. So thank you for catching that for me. I just made those changes and updates.

3) What I do is I take last year's sales, how much it sold up to the current week last year, and divide it by its final yearly total. From there, I get a percentage. I take the current yearly total for THIS year and divide it by that percentage. And that's where I get the projections for this year.

For example: Let's look at the Switch: At this point last year, the Switch sold 15,428,595 units. So I take that stat and I divide it by 19,278,788 units, which is it's final yearly total. So, it looks like this:

15,428,595/19,278,788 = .8002886385 (80.02886385%)

Now, I take its current yearly total for this year. As of this moment, the Switch has sold 23,445,249 units in 2020 thus far. So, I'll take that and divide it by the percentage:

23,445,249/.8002886385

And that leads me to the current projection of: 29,295,991 units.

And those projections are ALWAYS changing. Every time we get new numbers and I update the tables or make adjustments, that projection changes. And as the year progresses, we get closer and closer to the actual total to where we can make a ballpark estimate.

Hi @PAOerfulone Thank you very much for your kind welcome. 

Thank you also for such a wonderful reply!

1)I see why this would be the case, I was not counting month totals like that, so this definitely changes some of my estimates.

2) I am very glad I could help, if maybe there are some other numbers you need double checking, count on me, I enjoy doing that.

3)This is a great response, makes my mind wonder and I want to do some analysis of how this is done. I am in no way an expert of projections so I want to explore this concept very well. It might take some time for me to analyze this but with a first look, it seems like it is inflating the projection a little bit when you get such a wonderful mid year like 2020. 

Thank you for explaining step by step how you do it. I was a perfect explanation. i wonder how this projection has been changing since the beginning of the year. Probably it started much lower then it skyrocketed to something like 35-40 and then it is coming down almost as fast.

Anyways I will hopefully be able to learn much more from you, thank you for your time.



Even with the stalemate the Switch has relatively reached. I think ending up around 28M-29M is an amazing feat for any consoles nowadays. Especially for a Nintendo console since historically were more front-loaded and never seemed to reach much in the later years. Switch is on the way to rectify this statement prolly do just as well in fifth year too !



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909