Despite next to nothing being known about 2020 releases beyond March, we still have a bunch of interesting things to watch once the Japanese holiday season is over (so from week 3 onwards).
1. Switch Lite - What can the new SKU add to the weekly baseline.
2. Pokémon Sword/Shield has performed strongly and reverted the decline of Pokémon in Japan.
3. Luigi's Mansion 3 is showing good legs after a moderate debut.
4. Ring Fit Adventure is confirmed to be a hit. Due to its appeal outside of the typical gamer demographics, it carries potential to drive sales of the Switch hybrid SKU.
5. Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games has picked up steam after an abysmal debut. Because the actual olympic games don't happen until summer, this game will hang around in the lower regions of Famitsu's top 30 before it surges back up when its real time comes.
6. The usual evergreens can keep contributing and this is a very important factor because it means that the overall number of sales drivers for hardware has grown since a year ago instead of newer games replacing older ones.
1. No game on the level of NSMBU Deluxe releases early in 2020, so Switch will have to ride 2019 releases and evergreens until Animal Crossing.
2. Brain Training was given too much of the token treatment by Nintendo, so it should be expected to be a non-factor quickly. Color me surprised if this game keeps showing up in Famitsu's top 30 in February.
3. Hybrid SKU still costs the same after ~3 years on the market, so over time it has to become increasingly more challenging to maintain sales levels from previous years. The hybrid SKU has sold 3.2-3.5m units in 2017, 2018 and 2019.