shikamaru317 said:
I wasn't going to respond to this at first, because it's only an opinion and we are all welcome to them. But that last line had me feeling a bit attacked, so here goes a wall of text that nobody is going to even bother to read  Is it a strong enough studio lineup objectively, or only subjectively? The current studio line-up is subjectively great, for me at least, but both subjectively and objectively I see ways in which it could be significantly stronger than it currently is. It's that second category, objectivity, that sometimes has me thinking that we live a bit too much in a bubble in this thread, failing to take into account what the market thinks about things. If Microsoft's current 1st party lineup was strong enough, you would think that the Xbox Series vs PS5 sales ratio would be substantially more in favor of Xbox than the Xbox One vs PS4 sales ratio last gen at the same point last generation generation. By the end of 2014, PS4 had outsold Xbox One by 1.73x, based on current weekly sales trends at least, by the end of 2021 PS5 will have outsold Xbox Series by about 1.61x. That is showing an improvement for Xbox, but not a very large one. And some might say "well that is only down to stock, there is enough demand to sell alot more Xbox Series units than are currently selling", and while it is accurate that Xbox Series demand is high enough they could sell alot more than they are selling so far if they had more stock, there is no doubt that PS5 demand is even higher than Xbox Series demand, we can tell this by the Series S units that are just sitting on shelves in some countries while PS5 sells out everywhere almost immediately, and by the higher PS5 scalper prices. In other words, were it not for this global semi-conductor shortage, PS5 would be even more in the lead than it currently is, the semi-conductor shortage is actually helping MS ironically. In other words, even though MS has 24 first party studios now, compared to 8 Xbox first party studios in 2014 (343, Black Tusk/The Coalition, Rare, Lionhead, Turn 10, Twisted Pixel, Press Play, and Team Dakota), the same year of that generation, the hardware sales situation for Xbox hasn't improved at all. But hardware is of course only one aspect of a console's success, there is also software sales. Though sadly we can't really compare much between last gen and this gen here due to the wrench/spanner in the works that Gamepass creates. However, the fact that Microsoft has stopped releasing Gamepass numbers suggests that Gamepass growth may have stalled, with Gamepass falling short of Microsoft's internal targets for Gamepass subscriber counts. If consumers thought the current 24 first party studios were strong enough, would Gamepass growth be stalling? Afterall, MS announced they acquired an entire freaking publisher (one that has a studio that has proven capable of 30m+ sales on Elder Scrolls) just 3 months after their last Gamepass subscriber count update, and yet here we are 6 months after that acquisition and we still have yet to get new Gamepass numbers. And while many of those 24 first party studios have yet to release their first Xbox games, which does mean that we haven't seen the full effect of the acquisitions Microsoft has already made, we have at least seen trailers for what many of those studios are working on, and some of those trailers didn't get very many views, which isn't a good sign. The situation is made even worse by the fact that some of the studios they have already acquired won't be able to release their 1st Xbox exclusive games until late 2023 or even 2024, too late to have much effect on the hardware sales situation this generation. And some might say, "Why does the hardware sales situation matter at all? Who cares about console sales as long as a platform has plenty of games that you personally want to play?". That opinion has some merit, but the simple fact of the matter is that hardware sales are proportional to 3rd party developer support. Because Xbox sales are so weak in Japan, many JP developers ignore Xbox by default, it would pretty much take Phil paying some of these JP devs and publishers to release on Xbox via day one Gamepass moneyhat deals to even get them to consider Xbox as a platform. Then there is the fact that PS has such a dominant lead that they can moneyhat timed exclusives much more easily and cheaply than they would be able to if the gap was much closer. PS would never have been able to timed hat 6 AAA 3rd party exclusives so far (one of which with 2 year exclusivity) if PS4 hadn't outsold Xbox One by more than 2:1. MS must make sure that the gap is way smaller at the end of this generation so that Sony doesn't go into the 10th generation with the same huge advantage in getting 3rd party ports and 3rd party hats. The simple fact of the matter is that it has now been a year since the last Xbox acquisition was announced, Bethesda/Zenimax acquisition was announced September 21, 2020, it is now September 23, 2021. MS has gone a whole year without announcing a single acquisition, not so much as an indie/single A dev, in spite of multiple interviews during that year where they said they were actively seeking more acquisitions. Both Phil and the head of Xbox Asia have given interviews where they stated that they hope to acquire studios both in Japan and in the rest of Asia, some of those interviews dating back as far as 2 years, and yet so far their only acquisition in Asia was Tango, a studio that came as part of a package deal with the rest of Zenimax. Meanwhile the list of possible Japanese acquisitions continues to dwindle as Chinese publishers make big financial investments in Japanese studios who might otherwise have been willing to sell to MS for financial security purposes. Likewise the list of independent AAA studios continues to dwindle as other publishers acquire them or as they receive big financial investments that make them less likely to sell to MS for financial security purposes, leaving MS with less and less acquisition options in the AAA arena. It is frustrating to watch. Maybe I want MS to catch up to Sony too quickly, but I'm a gamer on a budget who can't really afford to get 2 consoles early in a generation, so it should be understandable to people that I want all of the 3rd party games that interest me on the first console I buy each gen. And that is not happening with Xbox either last gen or this gen, which frustrates me greatly. I don't want to have to wait a year or two for late ports of timed hats, nor do I want to to ever need to buy a PS console in order to play anything that's not 1st or 2nd party Sony. MS must this gen act to ensure that the situation is better next gen, so that we don't get 3 generations in a row like this for Xbox. |
I mean, in a word - yes. You have unrealistic expectations.
Xbox is coming off an incredibly damaging console generation. Yes, they've made great moves over the last few years to begin changing their image for the better, but to the vast majority of the market, Xbox has been an afterthought for so long now, you can't just snap your fingers and make Xbox sell on par with the new PS.
GamePass is amazing, but the simple fact of the matter is that, so far, MS has been forced rely heavily on deals with outside parties to make it shine. For it to really take off, and become the game changer that MS need it to be, these studios that MS have bought need to actually get rolling with a steady stream of blockbuster games. People like us, on forums, constantly talking about various aspects of the gaming industry might be already hyped up on the prospect of things like Starfield, the next Elder Scrolls, or whatever it might be, but to the larger population, these games aren't real yet. They're just ideas, and abstracts. Hell, even gaming media still regularly finds an excuse to talk about how something like Starfield might not actually be an Xbox ecosystem exclusive after all. We're talking about the people MOST invested in these conversations. All these studios, making all these games, need to actually get them out, in the hands of players, on Xbox only - AND they have to be GREAT - for the market to show you a real reaction.
Even if MS went and bought Rockstar today, and said "ok, GTA is gonna be Xbox only moving forward," you wouldn't suddenly start seeing Xbox sell even with PS moving forward. You would see a few weeks, or maybe a couple months of stronger performance (stock permitting), and then it would level out back to around whatever the split is right now. For one, because GTA6 is not a real game yet, and second, because the people who are playing on the platform of the market leader are used to getting whatever games they want, and them not actually being able to get a GTA, Elder Scrolls, Final Fantasy, or whatever huge franchise...take your pick...isn't going to REALLY sink in until that game is suddenly out in the wild, and they realize "shit...why ain't this showing up on the PS store?"
We're creatures of habit. 100 million plus people are coming off playing PS for like the last decade, and Sony hasn't disappointed them in any way with recent moves. Why would a huge chunk of them, right now, without these MS studios getting games out, making waves, decide that they need to jump ship? Because one of their 10 buddies told them MS bought Bethesda and Xbox is getting Starfield next year? Wtf is Starfield? Because all Bethesda games are gonna be on Xbox now? Ok...so you say...but PS getting two next gen Bethesda games before Xbox ever do. Elder Scrolls? A whole generation of kids have come up and become gamers without ever seeing a new ES release. Customers aren't sitting around thinking, "well MS has X amount of studios now, I better go get an Xbox." They look at the games in front of them. So far, PS5 got a Spider-Man game, Demon Souls, Returnal, and Ratched. Xbox got...what? Nothing with even remotely that kind of weight behind it, that's what. Why should Xbox be selling even close to on par with PS?
Sony has been churning out both critical, and commercial hit games for the last gen and a half. The market confidence in them to deliver is arguably at a near all time high. MS could go out and buy literally everyone right now, and it wouldn't have the kind of immediate impact you want, because the majority of gamers are still either looking at them side eyed, not at all, or as that guy on the upswing who you might buy into within the next 2 years or so if they prove that all the cash they're throwing around is really gonna result in the same level of quality games that people have come to expect from Sony, or Nintendo.
If you're on a budget, and you can't afford to get all systems, and their respective games in a timeframe that pleases you, you can't have your first choice, consciously, go against the long time market leader, and then complain that they are in fact the market leader...with all that entails. Of course they're going to have an easier time making deals. Of course they're the ones who already have an established release pipeline of attractive first party content. Of course there's going to be momentum carry-over for them to a new gen, because they've done nothing to sabotage it. Of course MS is still suffering from major failures in various markets, that have compounded themselves over the years. Of course the reality of addressing these matters doesn't simply boil down to "here studio so and so, take this amount of money, of which I have mountains, and make me whole." Etc. Etc.