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Forums - Movies Discussion - Tracking The Rise (Or Fall?) of Skywalker

NightlyPoe said:
thismeintiel said:

The numbers back me up, not you.  TLJ dropped just 27% in its 3rd weekend, which is better than TFA's 40% fall for the same weekend.  Obviously, whoever was kept away from watching it the previous week went then.

The numbers do not back you up.  Simple math will tell you that the same percentage saved from $220 million is worth more than 3 times as much as the same percentage saved from $71 million.  For example.

If TLJ had a Christmas Friday, it's completely believable that its 2nd weekend would only have fallen by 50%.  Still more than The Force Awakens, but not a super high number.  Heck, let's just be reasonable and give it a modest boost so that it only falls 55%  That's a $99 million 2nd weekend.  About $28 million higher than it did with its disadvantaged calendar.

So you're telling me that those $28 million in ticket sales that were lost came back in the 3rd weekend?  By that logic, we can simply subtract the the actual ticket sales number by that and come by what how you believe it would have sold if it not for the deferred ticket sales.  So:

$52 - $28 = $24 million

By your logic, without the deferred ticket sales the The Last Jedi would have plummeted 76% in its third weekend to... where it ended up in its 4th weekend?

Sorry, but no.  The simpler answer is that a significant portion of the deferred sales never happened.

You can speak of a bunch of hypotheticals that can never be proven, but they still don't answer why the box office dropped along with merch sales.  Or was the merch not released on a convenient day?  Let me finish my reply by simply quoting myself:

"Of course, you can point out whatever numbers you want. Make up any excuses you want. In the end, I have the largest piece of damning evidence on my side as to TLJ being a disappointment. Disney's reaction to the performance of that film, and its affect on the franchise. Just two years later they made a film that retcons TLJ and pokes fun at it. This would not have happened if the film performed well enough in their eyes. Obviously, it didn't. It also hurt merch sales.

So, there is no reason to continue with the excuses. Disney has spoken."



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NightlyPoe said:
thismeintiel said:

You can speak of a bunch of hypotheticals that can never be proven, but they still don't answer why the box office dropped along with merch sales.  Or was the merch not released on a convenient day?

Math isn't a hypothetical.  You said the numbers proved you right.  I demonstrated how a very conservative change would to make an outsized difference that could not be made up in a later weekend.  Are you retracting your contention, or will you just admit that I'm correct?

Additionally, merchandise sales figures have never been released, much less what their projected sales to use as a comparison.  Put simply, you have no idea how the merchandise sold.  However, it honestly wouldn't even matter all that much.  Merchandise sales for The Last Jedi would have come disproportionately before Christmas.  In other words, toy sales would have largely predated the movie's release.

And before you mention the bargain bin, I got plenty of cheap The Force Awakens and Rogue One toys for my niece for 75-80% off.  Merchandising toys of all varieties quite frequently wind up discounted.

We do know that thanks to reporting from Panjiva, who track shipments into the US, merch shipments were down 47% when compared to the same time period for RO.  And 56% when compared to TFA.  Hasbro said they saw lower sales for SW merch, too.  They tried to say it was because they put it out too early, even though it has been when they always have been putting out SW merch, ~3 months before the film comes out.  And yes, all toys get discounted.  However, not many have it happen that soon, unless it isn't selling.

Now, how about this time you actually address the elephant in the room, instead of ignoring it:

"Of course, you can point out whatever numbers you want. Make up any excuses you want. In the end, I have the largest piece of damning evidence on my side as to TLJ being a disappointment. Disney's reaction to the performance of that film, and its affect on the franchise. Just two years later they made a film that retcons TLJ and pokes fun at it. This would not have happened if the film performed well enough in their eyes. Obviously, it didn't. It also hurt merch sales.

So, there is no reason to continue with the excuses. Disney has spoken."



NightlyPoe said:
thismeintiel said:

Only problem with your theory is that Fri, which had nothing on the calendar going against it, saw a drop of 76% compared to TFA's 59%.

The Force Awakens 2nd Friday was Christmas.  One of the best box office holidays of the entire year.  Having Christmas and Boxing Day come on the weekend was a huge boon.  You can't compare the two.

For comparison, notice that Rise of Skywalker did better on Wednesday and Thursday than it did on Friday.  It takes a major holiday kiss to make a movie make more on a weekday than it does on the weekend.  The Force Awakens had both the weekend and the Christmas kiss.  So, yeah, its Friday maintained unusually well.

The TFA dropped 28% on Xmas Eve from the day prior, and still made $27.4M.  ROS dropped 31%, making $20.3M.  TLJ dropped 40%, making $17.6M. 

Again, you're comparing two completely different scenarios.  

The Force Awakens and Rise of Skywalker had Christmas Eve on Thursday and Tuesday respectively.  There's hardly any drop usually between Wednesday and Thursday, and a on Christmas holiday, not much between Monday and Tuesday (during a regular week it's a different story).

Almost every week there's a significant drop between Saturday and Sunday.  For a non-premiering movie, Saturday is usually the biggest day of the week while Sunday typically drops 30-50%.  The Last Jedi had Christmas Eve on top of that typical drop.

Again, I'll make an easy prediction that all next week The Last Jedi will significantly outperform Rise of Skywalker.  If I'm wrong about that, you get all the bragging rights.

Even if you wish to move the money around to give the 2nd weekend a smaller drop, which would just mean a larger drop the 3rd weekend, it isn't going to change how it ended up performing as a whole.

Yes it does.  Any businessman will tell you it's better to make a sale today than wait until tomorrow.  While some people might come back the next day, several others will not.  Sharing its 2nd weekend with Christmas shopping and delaying its Christmas bonus until its 3rd week really hurt The Last Jedi.  Yes, it regained some customers, but many more either never bothered to see the movie or didn't go a second time because they didn't have time when the movie fresh and new.

The effects of holidays on box office returns is another reason why I prefer to use full weeks. A single good or bad day caused by a holiday has a bigger net effect on a 3-day period than it does a 7-day period, and when in the week those holidays occur means a lot for determining week-over-week changes for both the weekend and whole week (it's also why the "TLJ dropped 67% in its second weekend!" line that still gets trotted out in SW discussions is disingenuous bullshit; it's technically true, but without the relevant details it is also a lie of omission designed to make TLJ's box officer performance look worse than it was). As you pointed out, Christmas Day fell on a Friday for TFA. It fell on a Sunday for Rogue One and on a Monday for TLJ. That impacts the percentage changes seen from their first to second weekends and from their second to third weekends. But if you look at full weeks, the differences aren't nearly as pronounced. Even then there are complications, though. Point being, calendars are important.

NightlyPoe said:

Now, how about this time you actually address the elephant in the room

I saw only a single retcon that was necessary for the story they told and no poking fun at it.  So I don't know what to tell you.

Thank you. Some people have an overly broad definition of "retcon." I've seen TROS twice and I saw nothing that flat-out contradicts or overwrites something that was established as a fact in TLJ.



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In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

Monday estimates are in. This is where TLJ is going to be growing that gap, again.

ROS took in an estimated $15.2M. This is 44.7% lower than TLJ's 27.5M for the same Mon. ROS has now made $377.4M at the DBO. This is 4.6% lower than TLJ's $395.6M. If this continues, ROS will make $591.7M total at the DBO.

If the FBO percentage holds from this weekend, 50.1%, the FBO will finish with a total of $598.3M, 16% lower than TLJ's $712.4M. That's a WW total of $1.19B, a drop of 10.5% from TLJ's $1.33B.



NightlyPoe said:
thismeintiel said:

We do know that thanks to reporting from Panjiva, who track shipments into the US, merch shipments were down 47% when compared to the same time period for RO.  And 56% when compared to TFA.  Hasbro said they saw lower sales for SW merch, too.  They tried to say it was because they put it out too early, even though it has been when they always have been putting out SW merch, ~3 months before the film comes out.  And yes, all toys get discounted.  However, not many have it happen that soon, unless it isn't selling.

Shipments are not sales or forecasts as to whether the expectations were met.  Additionally, the shipment numbers Panjiva provide actually show the dip happening long before The Last Jedi entered theaters.  Which, if you're reading tea leaves, would be more of an indication that they overshot on the generally well-received Rogue One, not The Last Jedi.

And plenty of The Force Awakens and Rogue One merchandise was discounted earlier than you remember.  Again, my niece's birthday isn't long into the new year and I actually check these things.  Matter of fact, it was actually harder to find stuff for The Last Jedi in my area, but that's anecdotal.  All of the bargain bin stuff is anecdotal.

Now, how about this time you actually address the elephant in the room

I saw only a single retcon that was necessary for the story they told and no poking fun at it.  So I don't know what to tell you.

And yet, the revenue for that department continued to decline, even after TLJ released.  And months later.  Which is really bad because I'm sure it was helped by some big Marvel toy sales.  And just for the record, you brought up the bargin bin, not I.  I assume as some kind of strawman.

You and @Shadow1980 are just getting hilarious at this point.  There was no real retcons or jabs taken at TLJ?  Come on.  Rey's heritage was changed.  Rose Tico was relegated to a very minor character, instead of staying a main one.  Luke says he was wrong for being like he was in TLJ, as well as catching the lightsaber when Rey tried to toss it away like he did.  Speaking of lightsabers, Luke's is fixed, even though it was left broken on Snoke's ship in TLJ.  The "Holdo maneuver" was mocked.  After a big deal was made about hating Kylo's mask in TLJ, he fixes it in ROS.  After the Resistance was completely abandoned in TLJ, suddenly a bunch of people are on their side, now. 

You also have the actors and JJ coming out and being critical of TLJ, instead of at the fans like what happened last time.  In an interview, JJ said that he praised TLJ for having surprises in it, but added "On the other hand...I don't think that people go to SW to be told, 'This doesn't matter.'" John Boyega said he was happy about Abrams return because he "wanted to see where that story was going" and that TLJ left him feeling "iffy," where he felt TFA was a solid start.  In an interview around TLJ's release, Daisy Ridley gave a noncommittal "Um, sure" when asked if she was happy with the film.  Mark Hamill's distaste for the new films has been well documented during TLJ release.  And in response to someone hoping that ROS was good, he told him he could always "wait til it comes to cable."

These are not steps taken and words said for a film that was well received and performed up to their standards.  It's time you just accept the facts on this one.  And if I go back, I'm sure both of you thought that the franchise was perfectly fine and that ROS would outperform TLJ, as is the supposed SW trend for the last in the trilogy.  Doesn't seem like that's going to happen, now.



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thismeintiel said:
Monday estimates are in. This is where TLJ is going to be growing that gap, again.

ROS took in an estimated $15.2M. This is 44.7% lower than TLJ's 27.5M for the same Mon. ROS has now made $377.4M at the DBO. This is 4.6% lower than TLJ's $395.6M. If this continues, ROS will make $591.7M total at the DBO.

If the FBO percentage holds from this weekend, 50.1%, the FBO will finish with a total of $598.3M, 16% lower than TLJ's $712.4M. That's a WW total of $1.19B, a drop of 10.5% from TLJ's $1.33B.

Thanks for the info. 



They definitely did do swipes at TLJ...

Retconned "your parents are nothing" which was the whole point of TLJ. Rian was still defending his position all the way up to RoS launch. It was the whole overlaying theme of TLJ.

"I said they were nothing.... AND THEY WERE.... BECAUSE THEY WANTED TO BE!"

What a cop out.

"We need Holdo maneuvers!"

"That was a one in a million shot... we're never going to be a le to do that again"

What a fucking cop out. 

Last edited by DarthJarvis - on 31 December 2019

Tuesday estimates are in, and despite every other film on the list being up over last week's Tues, ROS fell 35%.

ROS made an estimated $13.1M on Tues. This is 52.7% lower than TLJ's $27.7M for the corresponding Tues. ROS total at the DBO now sits at $390.6M, 7.7% lower than TLJ's $423.4M. If this continues, ROS will finish with a DBO total of $572.4M vs TLJ's $620.2M.

If the FBO percentage holds from this past weekend, 50.1%, ROS will make $577.6M at the FBO, a WW total of $1.15B. This is 13.5% lower than TLJ's $1.33B.

If this decline continues, it hitting $1B may start to come into question. This would make it only the 2nd Episode in the series to not hit $1B, when taking inflation into consideration. The other being the poorly received AOTC in the prequel trilogy.



NightlyPoe said:
thismeintiel said:
Tuesday estimates are in, and despite every other film on the list being up over last week's Tues, ROS fell 35%.

Again you spin.  Rise of Skywalker had just premiered last week.  The other movies were holdovers, some quite old.

This performance isn't a slide.  It's predictable.  Literally, I predicted it several times in this single thread days ago and could have predicted it a dozen years ago if you had told me that a generic blockbuster would premier December 20, 2019.

Stop.... 



thismeintiel said:
Tuesday estimates are in, and despite every other film on the list being up over last week's Tues, ROS fell 35%.

ROS made an estimated $13.1M on Tues. This is 52.7% lower than TLJ's $27.7M for the corresponding Tues. ROS total at the DBO now sits at $390.6M, 7.7% lower than TLJ's $423.4M. If this continues, ROS will finish with a DBO total of $572.4M vs TLJ's $620.2M.

If the FBO percentage holds from this past weekend, 50.1%, ROS will make $577.6M at the FBO, a WW total of $1.15B. This is 13.5% lower than TLJ's $1.33B.

If this decline continues, it hitting $1B may start to come into question. This would make it only the 2nd Episode in the series to not hit $1B, when taking inflation into consideration. The other being the poorly received AOTC in the prequel trilogy.

I still think The Rise of Skywalker will reach $1 billion, but it will definitely not make more than The Last Jedi.