Forums - Movies Discussion - Tracking The Rise (Or Fall?) of Skywalker

haxxiy said:

Domestic only, though, which makes the original trilogy uniquely strong in this comparison since it grossed 50% - 60% there. But even adjusting for inflation makes up for a poor metric since that takes into account average ticket price, but blockbusters nowadays are so much more oriented toward full price weekends, premium screenings, 3D etc. than the average.

Either way, I think the point I made on the other thread stands - the franchise is demographically stagnant for decades and thus increasingly less relevant to pop culture worldwide as population grows and the middle-class expands on Asia and elsewhere (that's not to say, of course, interesting things like fads or popular memes can't happen with Star Wars in the future even if it continues down this path).

It's true that cinemas have more revenue-enhancing gimmicks than they did in the days of the original or prequel trilogy - but bearing in mind the numbers involved, I think the worst that Disney can be accused of is failing to reverse the damage that Lucas did with the prequels, rather than somehow causing the franchise to sink to new depths (well, aside from Solo of course).

And to be fair, demographic stagnation is a problem a lot of long-established franchises are facing nowadays. Star Wars has actually done pretty well to have held up as long as it has for the past 42 years. Of course, it's possible for a franchise to re-invent and revitalize itself, but doing that with Star Wars is probably going to be a lot harder than it was with, say, James Bond or Star Trek.



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OlfinBedwere said:

All this talk of The Last Jedi somehow being this massive financial disappointment is doubly hilarious to someone who still has vivid memories of Star Trek: Nemesis failing to defeat one of J-Lo's lesser romcoms in its opening weekend, and then experiencing what at the time was the absolute worst second weekend of any major movie release in history. And people want to crow about how The Last Jedi being the #1 movie of its year and the 13th-highest-grossing movie (in unadjusted dollars) ever is some kind of under-achievement? Seriously...

Now that movie was a disappointment. I saw in theaters, and I felt (and still feel) it was perhaps the weakest in the series (the utterly forgettable Insurrection isn't too far behind). Critics and audiences alike consider it one of the worst Trek films. Plus Paramount had the bright idea of releasing it against the second Lord of the Rings film, which didn't help things. The first four Trek films did well, but after that they started struggling a bit. The first three TNG films did okay, with First Contact being the most successful, but Nemesis was a complete bomb. It had barely over half the attendance of the next worst-performing film in its series. It did so poorly that it killed any future TNG films, and we wouldn't see another Trek film until the quasi-reboot in 2009.

Nemesis' box office gross is what disappointment actually looks like. Failing to live up to unrealistic expectations is not true disappointment.



thismeintiel said:

Only problem with your theory is that Fri, which had nothing on the calendar going against it, saw a drop of 76% compared to TFA's 59%.

The Force Awakens 2nd Friday was Christmas.  One of the best box office holidays of the entire year.  Having Christmas and Boxing Day come on the weekend was a huge boon.  You can't compare the two.

For comparison, notice that Rise of Skywalker did better on Wednesday and Thursday than it did on Friday.  It takes a major holiday kiss to make a movie make more on a weekday than it does on the weekend.  The Force Awakens had both the weekend and the Christmas kiss.  So, yeah, its Friday maintained unusually well.

The TFA dropped 28% on Xmas Eve from the day prior, and still made $27.4M.  ROS dropped 31%, making $20.3M.  TLJ dropped 40%, making $17.6M. 

Again, you're comparing two completely different scenarios.  

The Force Awakens and Rise of Skywalker had Christmas Eve on Thursday and Tuesday respectively.  There's hardly any drop usually between Wednesday and Thursday, and a on Christmas holiday, not much between Monday and Tuesday (during a regular week it's a different story).

Almost every week there's a significant drop between Saturday and Sunday.  For a non-premiering movie, Saturday is usually the biggest day of the week while Sunday typically drops 30-50%.  The Last Jedi had Christmas Eve on top of that typical drop.

Again, I'll make an easy prediction that all next week The Last Jedi will significantly outperform Rise of Skywalker.  If I'm wrong about that, you get all the bragging rights.

Even if you wish to move the money around to give the 2nd weekend a smaller drop, which would just mean a larger drop the 3rd weekend, it isn't going to change how it ended up performing as a whole.

Yes it does.  Any businessman will tell you it's better to make a sale today than wait until tomorrow.  While some people might come back the next day, several others will not.  Sharing its 2nd weekend with Christmas shopping and delaying its Christmas bonus until its 3rd week really hurt The Last Jedi.  Yes, it regained some customers, but many more either never bothered to see the movie or didn't go a second time because they didn't have time when the movie fresh and new.

Last edited by NightlyPoe - on 30 December 2019

My mistake.  Thought I hit edit, but hit reply by accident.

NightlyPoe said:
thismeintiel said:

Only problem with your theory is that Fri, which had nothing on the calendar going against it, saw a drop of 76% compared to TFA's 59%.

The Force Awakens 2nd Friday was Christmas.  One of the best box office holidays of the entire year.  Having Christmas and Boxing Day come on the weekend was a huge boon.  You can't compare the two.

For comparison, notice that Rise of Skywalker did better on Wednesday and Thursday than it did on Friday.  It takes a major holiday kiss to make a movie make more on a weekday than it does on the weekend.  The Force Awakens had both the weekend and the Christmas kiss.  So, yeah, its Friday maintained unusually well.

The TFA dropped 28% on Xmas Eve from the day prior, and still made $27.4M.  ROS dropped 31%, making $20.3M.  TLJ dropped 40%, making $17.6M. 

Again, you're comparing two completely different scenarios.  

The Force Awakens and Rise of Skywalker had Christmas Eve on Thursday and Tuesday respectively.  There's hardly any drop usually between Wednesday and Thursday, and a on Christmas holiday, not much between Monday and Tuesday (during a regular week it's a different story).

Almost every week there's a significant drop between Saturday and Sunday.  For a non-premiering movie, Saturday is usually the biggest day of the week while Sunday typically drops 30-50%.  The Last Jedi had Christmas Eve on top of that typical drop.

Again, I'll make an easy prediction that all next week The Last Jedi will significantly outperform Rise of Skywalker.  If I'm wrong about that, you get all the bragging rights.

Even if you wish to move the money around to give the 2nd weekend a smaller drop, which would just mean a larger drop the 3rd weekend, it isn't going to change how it ended up performing as a whole.

Yes it does.  Any businessman will tell you it's better to make a sale today than wait until tomorrow.  While some people might come back the next day, several others will not.  Sharing its 2nd weekend with Christmas shopping and delaying its Christmas bonus until its 3rd week really hurt The Last Jedi.  Yes, it regained some customers, but many more either never bothered to see the movie or didn't go a second time because they didn't have time when the movie fresh and new.

Actually, I'll use this post to respond to you. 

The numbers back me up, not you.  TLJ dropped just 27% in its 3rd weekend, which is better than TFA's 40% fall for the same weekend.  Obviously, whoever was kept away from watching it the previous week went then.

Of course, you can point out whatever numbers you want.  Make up any excuses you want.  In the end, I have the largest piece of damning evidence on my side as to TLJ being a disappointment.  Disney's reaction to the performance of that film, and its affect on the franchise.  Just two years later they made a film that retcons TLJ and pokes fun at it.  This would not have happened if the film performed well enough in their eyes.  Obviously, it didn't.  It also hurt merch sales. 

So, there is no reason to continue with the excuses.  Disney has spoken.

Last edited by thismeintiel - on 30 December 2019

thismeintiel said:

The numbers back me up, not you.  TLJ dropped just 27% in its 3rd weekend, which is better than TFA's 40% fall for the same weekend.  Obviously, whoever was kept away from watching it the previous week went then.

The numbers do not back you up.  Simple math will tell you that the same percentage saved from $220 million is worth more than 3 times as much as the same percentage saved from $71 million.  For example.

If TLJ had a Christmas Friday, it's completely believable that its 2nd weekend would only have fallen by 50%.  Still more than The Force Awakens, but not a super high number.  Heck, let's just be reasonable and give it a modest boost so that it only falls 55%  That's a $99 million 2nd weekend.  About $28 million higher than it did with its disadvantaged calendar.

So you're telling me that those $28 million in ticket sales that were lost came back in the 3rd weekend?  By that logic, we can simply subtract the the actual ticket sales number by that and come by what how you believe it would have sold if it not for the deferred ticket sales.  So:

$52 - $28 = $24 million

By your logic, without the deferred ticket sales the The Last Jedi would have plummeted 76% in its third weekend to... where it ended up in its 4th weekend?

Sorry, but no.  The simpler answer is that a significant portion of the deferred sales never happened.



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NightlyPoe said:
thismeintiel said:

The numbers back me up, not you.  TLJ dropped just 27% in its 3rd weekend, which is better than TFA's 40% fall for the same weekend.  Obviously, whoever was kept away from watching it the previous week went then.

The numbers do not back you up.  Simple math will tell you that the same percentage saved from $220 million is worth more than 3 times as much as the same percentage saved from $71 million.  For example.

If TLJ had a Christmas Friday, it's completely believable that its 2nd weekend would only have fallen by 50%.  Still more than The Force Awakens, but not a super high number.  Heck, let's just be reasonable and give it a modest boost so that it only falls 55%  That's a $99 million 2nd weekend.  About $28 million higher than it did with its disadvantaged calendar.

So you're telling me that those $28 million in ticket sales that were lost came back in the 3rd weekend?  By that logic, we can simply subtract the the actual ticket sales number by that and come by what how you believe it would have sold if it not for the deferred ticket sales.  So:

$52 - $28 = $24 million

By your logic, without the deferred ticket sales the The Last Jedi would have plummeted 76% in its third weekend to... where it ended up in its 4th weekend?

Sorry, but no.  The simpler answer is that a significant portion of the deferred sales never happened.

You can speak of a bunch of hypotheticals that can never be proven, but they still don't answer why the box office dropped along with merch sales.  Or was the merch not released on a convenient day?  Let me finish my reply by simply quoting myself:

"Of course, you can point out whatever numbers you want. Make up any excuses you want. In the end, I have the largest piece of damning evidence on my side as to TLJ being a disappointment. Disney's reaction to the performance of that film, and its affect on the franchise. Just two years later they made a film that retcons TLJ and pokes fun at it. This would not have happened if the film performed well enough in their eyes. Obviously, it didn't. It also hurt merch sales.

So, there is no reason to continue with the excuses. Disney has spoken."



thismeintiel said:

You can speak of a bunch of hypotheticals that can never be proven, but they still don't answer why the box office dropped along with merch sales.  Or was the merch not released on a convenient day?

Math isn't a hypothetical.  You said the numbers proved you right.  I demonstrated how a very conservative change would to make an outsized difference that could not be made up in a later weekend.  Are you retracting your contention, or will you just admit that I'm correct?

Additionally, merchandise sales figures have never been released, much less what their projected sales to use as a comparison.  Put simply, you have no idea how the merchandise sold.  However, it honestly wouldn't even matter all that much.  Merchandise sales for The Last Jedi would have come disproportionately before Christmas.  In other words, toy sales would have largely predated the movie's release.

And before you mention the bargain bin, I got plenty of cheap The Force Awakens and Rogue One toys for my niece for 75-80% off.  Merchandising toys of all varieties quite frequently wind up discounted.



NightlyPoe said:
thismeintiel said:

You can speak of a bunch of hypotheticals that can never be proven, but they still don't answer why the box office dropped along with merch sales.  Or was the merch not released on a convenient day?

Math isn't a hypothetical.  You said the numbers proved you right.  I demonstrated how a very conservative change would to make an outsized difference that could not be made up in a later weekend.  Are you retracting your contention, or will you just admit that I'm correct?

Additionally, merchandise sales figures have never been released, much less what their projected sales to use as a comparison.  Put simply, you have no idea how the merchandise sold.  However, it honestly wouldn't even matter all that much.  Merchandise sales for The Last Jedi would have come disproportionately before Christmas.  In other words, toy sales would have largely predated the movie's release.

And before you mention the bargain bin, I got plenty of cheap The Force Awakens and Rogue One toys for my niece for 75-80% off.  Merchandising toys of all varieties quite frequently wind up discounted.

We do know that thanks to reporting from Panjiva, who track shipments into the US, merch shipments were down 47% when compared to the same time period for RO.  And 56% when compared to TFA.  Hasbro said they saw lower sales for SW merch, too.  They tried to say it was because they put it out too early, even though it has been when they always have been putting out SW merch, ~3 months before the film comes out.  And yes, all toys get discounted.  However, not many have it happen that soon, unless it isn't selling.

Now, how about this time you actually address the elephant in the room, instead of ignoring it:

"Of course, you can point out whatever numbers you want. Make up any excuses you want. In the end, I have the largest piece of damning evidence on my side as to TLJ being a disappointment. Disney's reaction to the performance of that film, and its affect on the franchise. Just two years later they made a film that retcons TLJ and pokes fun at it. This would not have happened if the film performed well enough in their eyes. Obviously, it didn't. It also hurt merch sales.

So, there is no reason to continue with the excuses. Disney has spoken."



thismeintiel said:
NightlyPoe said:

Math isn't a hypothetical.  You said the numbers proved you right.  I demonstrated how a very conservative change would to make an outsized difference that could not be made up in a later weekend.  Are you retracting your contention, or will you just admit that I'm correct?

Additionally, merchandise sales figures have never been released, much less what their projected sales to use as a comparison.  Put simply, you have no idea how the merchandise sold.  However, it honestly wouldn't even matter all that much.  Merchandise sales for The Last Jedi would have come disproportionately before Christmas.  In other words, toy sales would have largely predated the movie's release.

And before you mention the bargain bin, I got plenty of cheap The Force Awakens and Rogue One toys for my niece for 75-80% off.  Merchandising toys of all varieties quite frequently wind up discounted.

We do know that thanks to reporting from Panjiva, who track shipments into the US, merch shipments were down 47% when compared to the same time period for RO.  And 56% when compared to TFA.  Hasbro said they saw lower sales for SW merch, too.  They tried to say it was because they put it out too early, even though it has been when they always have been putting out SW merch, ~3 months before the film comes out.  And yes, all toys get discounted.  However, not many have it happen that soon, unless it isn't selling.

Shipments are not sales or forecasts as to whether the expectations were met.  Additionally, the shipment numbers Panjiva provide actually show the dip happening long before The Last Jedi entered theaters.  Which, if you're reading tea leaves, would be more of an indication that they overshot on the generally well-received Rogue One, not The Last Jedi.

And plenty of The Force Awakens and Rogue One merchandise was discounted earlier than you remember.  Again, my niece's birthday isn't long into the new year and I actually check these things.  Matter of fact, it was actually harder to find stuff for The Last Jedi in my area, but that's anecdotal.  All of the bargain bin stuff is anecdotal.

Now, how about this time you actually address the elephant in the room

I saw only a single retcon that was necessary for the story they told and no poking fun at it.  So I don't know what to tell you.



NightlyPoe said:
thismeintiel said:

Only problem with your theory is that Fri, which had nothing on the calendar going against it, saw a drop of 76% compared to TFA's 59%.

The Force Awakens 2nd Friday was Christmas.  One of the best box office holidays of the entire year.  Having Christmas and Boxing Day come on the weekend was a huge boon.  You can't compare the two.

For comparison, notice that Rise of Skywalker did better on Wednesday and Thursday than it did on Friday.  It takes a major holiday kiss to make a movie make more on a weekday than it does on the weekend.  The Force Awakens had both the weekend and the Christmas kiss.  So, yeah, its Friday maintained unusually well.

The TFA dropped 28% on Xmas Eve from the day prior, and still made $27.4M.  ROS dropped 31%, making $20.3M.  TLJ dropped 40%, making $17.6M. 

Again, you're comparing two completely different scenarios.  

The Force Awakens and Rise of Skywalker had Christmas Eve on Thursday and Tuesday respectively.  There's hardly any drop usually between Wednesday and Thursday, and a on Christmas holiday, not much between Monday and Tuesday (during a regular week it's a different story).

Almost every week there's a significant drop between Saturday and Sunday.  For a non-premiering movie, Saturday is usually the biggest day of the week while Sunday typically drops 30-50%.  The Last Jedi had Christmas Eve on top of that typical drop.

Again, I'll make an easy prediction that all next week The Last Jedi will significantly outperform Rise of Skywalker.  If I'm wrong about that, you get all the bragging rights.

Even if you wish to move the money around to give the 2nd weekend a smaller drop, which would just mean a larger drop the 3rd weekend, it isn't going to change how it ended up performing as a whole.

Yes it does.  Any businessman will tell you it's better to make a sale today than wait until tomorrow.  While some people might come back the next day, several others will not.  Sharing its 2nd weekend with Christmas shopping and delaying its Christmas bonus until its 3rd week really hurt The Last Jedi.  Yes, it regained some customers, but many more either never bothered to see the movie or didn't go a second time because they didn't have time when the movie fresh and new.

The effects of holidays on box office returns is another reason why I prefer to use full weeks. A single good or bad day caused by a holiday has a bigger net effect on a 3-day period than it does a 7-day period, and when in the week those holidays occur means a lot for determining week-over-week changes for both the weekend and whole week (it's also why the "TLJ dropped 67% in its second weekend!" line that still gets trotted out in SW discussions is disingenuous bullshit; it's technically true, but without the relevant details it is also a lie of omission designed to make TLJ's box officer performance look worse than it was). As you pointed out, Christmas Day fell on a Friday for TFA. It fell on a Sunday for Rogue One and on a Monday for TLJ. That impacts the percentage changes seen from their first to second weekends and from their second to third weekends. But if you look at full weeks, the differences aren't nearly as pronounced. Even then there are complications, though. Point being, calendars are important.

NightlyPoe said:

Now, how about this time you actually address the elephant in the room

I saw only a single retcon that was necessary for the story they told and no poking fun at it.  So I don't know what to tell you.

Thank you. Some people have an overly broad definition of "retcon." I've seen TROS twice and I saw nothing that flat-out contradicts or overwrites something that was established as a fact in TLJ.