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Forums - Movies Discussion - Tracking The Rise (Or Fall?) of Skywalker

Shadow1980 said:

Despite an opening weekend that wasn't exactly record-breaking, TROS is definitely making up for that as it has been steadily closing the gap with TLJ. While I never collected any adjusted daily figures from BOM before they changed their site, current ticket prices are very close to what they were when TLJ was in theaters, so the difference for adjusted vs. non-adjusted should be minimal. Here's the non-adjusted grosses of TROS, TLJ, and, just for the hell of it, Rogue One:


Interesting bits of information here. TROS's first Monday-Thursday period was significantly better than TLJ's. Tuesday gross had a statistical tie with TLJ's first Tuesday, despite this Tuesday being Christmas Eve. Overall, despite its opening weekend falling 19.4% short of TLJ's, its first full week was only 2.3% short of TLJ's, another near-tie. Granted, a non-trivial piece of that was from Christmas Day, where TROS put up the second-biggest Christmas Day gross to date. Friday's gross for TROS was not much better than TLJ's second Friday, but this weekend should be better than TLJ's second weekend overall, seeing as TLJ didn't have to face down Christmas Eve until Sunday of its second weekend. I think after Sunday TROS will have the lead over TLJ. Of course, TLJ had its Christmas Day in Week 2, and between that and an overall extremely rare instance of a film's second Monday-Thursday period actually outperforming the first one, that presents a challenge for TROS for it own second Monday-Thursday period. Overall, TLJ dropped 43.3% in its second week. If TROS can manage even only a 40% WoW drop, that would put its LTD gross at about $463.7M, still maintaining a near-tie with TLJ. If the WoW drop for Week 2 is only 35%, that'll put it at over $478M, nearly 3% ahead of where TLJ was at after its first two weeks.

You correctly seem to notice that TLJ was actually up during weekdays after its second weekend exactly because of Christmas and the fact that school break had just begun, but seems to forget or at least underestimate that the same sort of boost has actually been a tremendous boon to ROS as well during the last few days (ROS, and Jumanji as well, considering it's way up WoW). It's not going to have the same factors going for it again come the 30th.

Take Aquaman, for instance, which released more or less on a similar time frame a few years ago and was 80% up WoW the monday school break begun, December 21, and 80% down the next monday, December 28. Giveth and taketh away, and all of that. Or the third The Hobbit movie, which was similarly down as the New Year dawned.



 

 

 

 

 

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NightlyPoe said:
thismeintiel said:

I'll update when weekend numbers come in.  Of course, the big test will come next weekend, which saw The Force Awakens drop a mere 40% WOW, while TLJ dropped a whopping 67%.  Will ROS drop like TFA, or TLJ, or somewhere inbetween?

Still running the same narratives from 2 years ago I see.  As I pointed out to you long ago, The Last Jedi was hurt by the calendar.  Two of the worst box office days of the year, Christmas Eve and New Year's Eve fell on a Sunday.  Additionally, many schools were still in session during its first week (and beyond that Jumanji became a breakout hit).

Without Christmas shopping eating away its first weekend, Rise of Skywalker will surely do better than The Last Jedi this weekend.  But I can further make a confident prediction that The Last Jedi will do much better on weekdays next week.

It's fairly easy to predict these things, and it probably cost The Last Jedi about $75-100 million that it could have gotten if it had the same calendar as The Force Awakens which had Christmas on a Friday and no competition, which is just a perfect setup for maximizing box office.

Only problem with your theory is that Fri, which had nothing on the calendar going against it, saw a drop of 76% compared to TFA's 59%.  And sure, Christmas Eve isn't the greatest day for the box office in the holidays, but don't act like no one goes out to watch movies on that day.  The TFA dropped 28% on Xmas Eve from the day prior, and still made $27.4M.  ROS dropped 31%, making $20.3M.  TLJ dropped 40%, making $17.6M. 

Even if you wish to move the money around to give the 2nd weekend a smaller drop, which would just mean a larger drop the 3rd weekend, it isn't going to change how it ended up performing as a whole.  People who would have gone Xmas Eve would have just watched it days later, maybe the following weekend, which actually seems to be what happened.  In the end, it would have ended up with same total and be seen in the same light.  As an underperforming disappointment that hurt the franchise and was worthy of a retcon just two years later.  And not just by people who didn't like it, but by Disney, as well.

OlfinBedwere said:

All this talk of The Last Jedi somehow being this massive financial disappointment is doubly hilarious to someone who still has vivid memories of Star Trek: Nemesis failing to defeat one of J-Lo's lesser romcoms in its opening weekend, and then experiencing what at the time was the absolute worst second weekend of any major movie release in history. And people want to crow about how The Last Jedi being the #1 movie of its year and the 13th-highest-grossing movie (in unadjusted dollars) ever is some kind of under-achievement? Seriously...

I suggest you get up with Disney, then.  Tell them to stop looking at it as a disappointment that needed to be retconned and made fun of.  They're just the ones that saw the financial decline of the series, after all.  What do they know.

Last edited by thismeintiel - on 28 December 2019

thismeintiel said:

I suggest you get up with Disney, then.  Tell them to stop looking at it as a disappointment that needed to be retconned and made fun of.  They're just the ones that saw the financial decline of the series, after all.  What do they know.

What financial decline? If you're talking about the fact that Star Wars movies no longer completely smash every other movie of their year out of sight at the box office, guess what - that happened while Lucas was still in control of the franchise. Attack of the Clones was only the fourth highest-grossing movie of its year, and Revenge of the Sith may have topped the domestic box office for its year, but lost out to Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire worldwide.



Weekend estimates are in and ROS dropped 59% from last weekend. Not as bad as TLJ's 67%, but much worse than TFA's 40%. As I stated before, it's important to note that this week was a holiday week, which usually comes with boosts, since school and some workplaces are closed. This makes the 59% look even worse. As a comparison, Jumanji actually made 33% more than last week. While no one was expecting the 2nd weekend for ROS to beat its opening, the holiday should have drastically decreased its decline. TLJ dropped just 27% on the same weekend in 2017.

ROS made an estimated $72M this weekend, for a total DBO take of $361.8M. This is 1.7% lower than TLJ's total of $368.2M for the same point in time. If this continues, ROS will end up with a DBO total of $609.7M.

ROS now sits at an estimated $363M at the FBO. This is 4.5% lower than TLJ at this point in time. If this continues, ROS will end up with a FBO total of $680.3M. A WW take of $1.29B.



OlfinBedwere said:
thismeintiel said:

I suggest you get up with Disney, then.  Tell them to stop looking at it as a disappointment that needed to be retconned and made fun of.  They're just the ones that saw the financial decline of the series, after all.  What do they know.

What financial decline? If you're talking about the fact that Star Wars movies no longer completely smash every other movie of their year out of sight at the box office, guess what - that happened while Lucas was still in control of the franchise. Attack of the Clones was only the fourth highest-grossing movie of its year, and Revenge of the Sith may have topped the domestic box office for its year, but lost out to Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire worldwide.

Look at the bold.  That is the answer to any excuse you try to come up with for the film.



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Okay, I won't actually be seeing The Rise of Skywalker until tomorrow night, so I can't claim anything with regards to its quality or what it does or doesn't retcon from The Last Jedi. However...

thismeintiel said:

I suggest you get up with Disney, then.  Tell them to stop looking at it as a disappointment that needed to be retconned and made fun of.  They're just the ones that saw the financial decline of the series, after all.  What do they know.

This is the part of your post I was actually addressing. Going by the inflation-adjusted box-office numbers, each entry in the three Star Wars trilogies ranks thusly in the list of all-time most successful movies:

Original Trilogy: 2nd, 13th, 17th

Prequel Trilogy: 19th, 99th, 70th (with the Clone Wars movie being splattered on the windshield of The Dark Knight)

Sequel Trilogy: 11th, 44th, probably somewhere between 30th and 50th (with Rogue One being 62nd, and Solo getting trampled underfoot by Infinity War and Deadpool 2)

Hmm... looks to me from that list that one could actually argue that it was the supposed God-Emperor of all that is Star Wars, George Lucas who oversaw the financial decline of the franchise, and that Disney helped it rebound slightly (albeit their financial mismanagement of Solo went WAY beyond anything that happened under Lucas's tenure).



OlfinBedwere said:

Okay, I won't actually be seeing The Rise of Skywalker until tomorrow night, so I can't claim anything with regards to its quality or what it does or doesn't retcon from The Last Jedi. However...

thismeintiel said:

This is the part of your post I was actually addressing. Going by the inflation-adjusted box-office numbers, each entry in the three Star Wars trilogies ranks thusly in the list of all-time most successful movies:

Original Trilogy: 2nd, 13th, 17th

Prequel Trilogy: 19th, 99th, 70th (with the Clone Wars movie being splattered on the windshield of The Dark Knight)

Sequel Trilogy: 11th, 44th, probably somewhere between 30th and 50th (with Rogue One being 62nd, and Solo getting trampled underfoot by Infinity War and Deadpool 2)

Hmm... looks to me from that list that one could actually argue that it was the supposed God-Emperor of all that is Star Wars, George Lucas who oversaw the financial decline of the franchise, and that Disney helped it rebound slightly (albeit their financial mismanagement of Solo went WAY beyond anything that happened under Lucas's tenure).

Domestic only, though, which makes the original trilogy uniquely strong in this comparison since it grossed 50% - 60% there. But even adjusting for inflation makes up for a poor metric since that takes into account average ticket price, but blockbusters nowadays are so much more oriented toward full price weekends, premium screenings, 3D etc. than the average.

Either way, I think the point I made on the other thread stands - the franchise is demographically stagnant for decades and thus increasingly less relevant to pop culture worldwide as population grows and the middle-class expands on Asia and elsewhere (that's not to say, of course, interesting things like fads or popular memes can't happen with Star Wars in the future even if it continues down this path).



 

 

 

 

 

haxxiy said:

Domestic only, though, which makes the original trilogy uniquely strong in this comparison since it grossed 50% - 60% there. But even adjusting for inflation makes up for a poor metric since that takes into account average ticket price, but blockbusters nowadays are so much more oriented toward full price weekends, premium screenings, 3D etc. than the average.

Either way, I think the point I made on the other thread stands - the franchise is demographically stagnant for decades and thus increasingly less relevant to pop culture worldwide as population grows and the middle-class expands on Asia and elsewhere (that's not to say, of course, interesting things like fads or popular memes can't happen with Star Wars in the future even if it continues down this path).

It's true that cinemas have more revenue-enhancing gimmicks than they did in the days of the original or prequel trilogy - but bearing in mind the numbers involved, I think the worst that Disney can be accused of is failing to reverse the damage that Lucas did with the prequels, rather than somehow causing the franchise to sink to new depths (well, aside from Solo of course).

And to be fair, demographic stagnation is a problem a lot of long-established franchises are facing nowadays. Star Wars has actually done pretty well to have held up as long as it has for the past 42 years. Of course, it's possible for a franchise to re-invent and revitalize itself, but doing that with Star Wars is probably going to be a lot harder than it was with, say, James Bond or Star Trek.



OlfinBedwere said:

All this talk of The Last Jedi somehow being this massive financial disappointment is doubly hilarious to someone who still has vivid memories of Star Trek: Nemesis failing to defeat one of J-Lo's lesser romcoms in its opening weekend, and then experiencing what at the time was the absolute worst second weekend of any major movie release in history. And people want to crow about how The Last Jedi being the #1 movie of its year and the 13th-highest-grossing movie (in unadjusted dollars) ever is some kind of under-achievement? Seriously...

Now that movie was a disappointment. I saw in theaters, and I felt (and still feel) it was perhaps the weakest in the series (the utterly forgettable Insurrection isn't too far behind). Critics and audiences alike consider it one of the worst Trek films. Plus Paramount had the bright idea of releasing it against the second Lord of the Rings film, which didn't help things. The first four Trek films did well, but after that they started struggling a bit. The first three TNG films did okay, with First Contact being the most successful, but Nemesis was a complete bomb. It had barely over half the attendance of the next worst-performing film in its series. It did so poorly that it killed any future TNG films, and we wouldn't see another Trek film until the quasi-reboot in 2009.

Nemesis' box office gross is what disappointment actually looks like. Failing to live up to unrealistic expectations is not true disappointment.



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In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

My mistake.  Thought I hit edit, but hit reply by accident.

NightlyPoe said:
thismeintiel said:

Only problem with your theory is that Fri, which had nothing on the calendar going against it, saw a drop of 76% compared to TFA's 59%.

The Force Awakens 2nd Friday was Christmas.  One of the best box office holidays of the entire year.  Having Christmas and Boxing Day come on the weekend was a huge boon.  You can't compare the two.

For comparison, notice that Rise of Skywalker did better on Wednesday and Thursday than it did on Friday.  It takes a major holiday kiss to make a movie make more on a weekday than it does on the weekend.  The Force Awakens had both the weekend and the Christmas kiss.  So, yeah, its Friday maintained unusually well.

The TFA dropped 28% on Xmas Eve from the day prior, and still made $27.4M.  ROS dropped 31%, making $20.3M.  TLJ dropped 40%, making $17.6M. 

Again, you're comparing two completely different scenarios.  

The Force Awakens and Rise of Skywalker had Christmas Eve on Thursday and Tuesday respectively.  There's hardly any drop usually between Wednesday and Thursday, and a on Christmas holiday, not much between Monday and Tuesday (during a regular week it's a different story).

Almost every week there's a significant drop between Saturday and Sunday.  For a non-premiering movie, Saturday is usually the biggest day of the week while Sunday typically drops 30-50%.  The Last Jedi had Christmas Eve on top of that typical drop.

Again, I'll make an easy prediction that all next week The Last Jedi will significantly outperform Rise of Skywalker.  If I'm wrong about that, you get all the bragging rights.

Even if you wish to move the money around to give the 2nd weekend a smaller drop, which would just mean a larger drop the 3rd weekend, it isn't going to change how it ended up performing as a whole.

Yes it does.  Any businessman will tell you it's better to make a sale today than wait until tomorrow.  While some people might come back the next day, several others will not.  Sharing its 2nd weekend with Christmas shopping and delaying its Christmas bonus until its 3rd week really hurt The Last Jedi.  Yes, it regained some customers, but many more either never bothered to see the movie or didn't go a second time because they didn't have time when the movie fresh and new.

Actually, I'll use this post to respond to you. 

The numbers back me up, not you.  TLJ dropped just 27% in its 3rd weekend, which is better than TFA's 40% fall for the same weekend.  Obviously, whoever was kept away from watching it the previous week went then.

Of course, you can point out whatever numbers you want.  Make up any excuses you want.  In the end, I have the largest piece of damning evidence on my side as to TLJ being a disappointment.  Disney's reaction to the performance of that film, and its affect on the franchise.  Just two years later they made a film that retcons TLJ and pokes fun at it.  This would not have happened if the film performed well enough in their eyes.  Obviously, it didn't.  It also hurt merch sales. 

So, there is no reason to continue with the excuses.  Disney has spoken.

Last edited by thismeintiel - on 30 December 2019